Monza v Napoli
MonzaNapoliSerie A · WED 28 OCT
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
Napoli are favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Monza 20%, draw 23%, Napoli 57%. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 51%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off
Monza win20%Napoli win57%Kick-offWED 28 OCT · 19:45
RoundMatchday 9
Match timeline
All events
MonzaMINNapoliEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Monza
Napoli
Last match: 23 Oct · the Italian Serie A
Last match: 24 Oct · the Italian Serie A
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.
The game in numbers
Match statistics
League table
2026/27Positions before kick-off
| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Napoli | 8 | +3 | 11 |
| 15 | Monza | 8 | −3 | 7 |
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
We make Napoli a 57% chance to win. The market has them at 54%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.0–1.8.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Published at 56%, 57% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 54% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Monza win | 20% | 21% | −1 |
| Draw | 23% | 24% | −1 |
| Napoli win | 57% | 54% | +3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 55% | −3 |
| Both teams to score | 51% | 56% | −5 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76% | 77% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% | 34% | −4 |
| Monza or draw | 43% | 46% | −3 |
| Monza clean sheet | 17% | – | – |
| Napoli clean sheet | 39% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
6 meetings since 2021/22Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · last six in Serie A this season · since 5 Sept
MONZA
NAPOLI
The table
2026/27| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Lazio | 8 | +11 | 22 |
| 2 |  Inter | 7 | +12 | 19 |
| 3 |  AS Roma | 8 | +13 | 18 |
| 4 |  Como | 8 | +7 | 17 |
| 5 |  AC Milan | 7 | +7 | 15 |
| 6 |  Frosinone | 7 | +4 | 13 |
| 7 |  Torino | 8 | +2 | 13 |
| 8 |  Cagliari | 8 | −3 | 13 |
| 9 | Napoli | 8 | +3 | 11 |
| 10 |  Juventus | 7 | +1 | 11 |
| 11 |  Atalanta | 7 | −1 | 9 |
| 12 |  Lecce | 7 | −3 | 9 |
| 13 |  Bologna | 8 | −2 | 8 |
| 14 |  Sassuolo | 8 | −4 | 8 |
| 15 | Monza | 8 | −3 | 7 |
| 16 |  Udinese | 7 | −7 | 4 |
| 17 |  Genoa | 7 | −8 | 4 |
| 18 |  Fiorentina | 7 | −9 | 4 |
| 19 |  Parma | 8 | −10 | 4 |
| 20 |  Venezia | 7 | −10 | 3 |
The competition's standings before kick-off.