Monza v Cagliari prediction · Serie A

Full timeGraded 19 Oct 20:00

Monza 4–0 Cagliari CAGLIARI WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Cagliari win~~38%

~~The market said~~30%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.643

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.525

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 25 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Cagliari win at 38%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Cagliari 38% before kick-off, 38% now. 0–0 · 35–27–38
1′KICK-OFF Monza v Cagliari
38′THE CALL SWINGS · 38' Draw is now our likeliest result at 37% (was Cagliari win 35%)
39′We said Cagliari at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 10%. 1–0 · 68–22–10
39′⚽ GOAL · 39' Monza 1–0 Cagliari
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 39' Cagliari win: 38% at kick-off, 10% now
39′THE CALL SWINGS · 39' Monza win is now our likeliest result at 68% (was Draw 38%)
40′A goal for Monza on 39′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 68–22–10
40′The goal count is tracking the 2.5 we expected. 1–0 · 68–22–10
42′We said Cagliari at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–0 · 69–22–9
45′SECOND HALF Monza 1–0 Cagliari
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+1' Cagliari win: 38% at kick-off, 8% now
46′HALF-TIME Monza 1–0 Cagliari
47′We said Cagliari at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 2%. 2–0 · 92–7–2
47′⚽ GOAL · 47' Monza 2–0 Cagliari
48′47′: Gustavo Varela on the scoresheet for Monza, making it 2–0. 2–0 · 92–6–2
54′SUBSTITUTION · 53' Cagliari · On: Alieu Fadera · Off: M'Bala Nzola
64′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Monza · On: Andrea Colpani · Off: Dany Mota
66′3 goals already, more than the 2.5 we expected for the whole match. 3–0 · 100–0–0
66′⚽ GOAL · 66' Monza 3–0 Cagliari
67′Monza ahead on 66′ through Jay Robinson. 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
68′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Cagliari · On: Yukinari Sugawara · Off: Zé Pedro
68′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Cagliari · On: Kevin Carlos · Off: Daniel Maldini
77′🟨 YELLOW · 76' Harry Winks · Cagliari
79′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.5 across ninety minutes. 4–0 · 100–0–0
79′⚽ GOAL · 79' Monza 4–0 Cagliari
80′Gustavo Varela scores for Monza on 79′ — 4–0. 4–0 · 100–0–0
81′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Monza · On: Michael Folorunsho · Off: Ebenezer Akinsanmiro
81′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Monza · On: Patrick Cutrone · Off: Gustavo Varela
82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Monza · On: Adam Bakoune · Off: Eddy Kouadio
82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Cagliari · On: Alessandro Deiola · Off: Alessandro Romano
82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Cagliari · On: Joseph Liteta · Off: Harry Winks
83′🟨 YELLOW · 82' Samuele Birindelli · Monza
83′🟨 YELLOW · 82' Alieu Fadera · Cagliari
88′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Monza · On: Omari Forson · Off: Jay Robinson
FTFULL TIME Monza 4–0 Cagliari
FTMonza 4–0 Cagliari · Cagliari win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Cagliari just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Monza 35%, draw 27%, Cagliari 38%. Over 2.5 goals 47%, both teams to score 52%.

The AI’s read on Monza v CagliariBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 13 Oct 05:25 · locked at kick-off

Monza win35%

Draw27%

Cagliari win38%

Kick-offMON 19 OCT · 17:30

RoundMatchday 7

VenueStadio Brianteo

RefereeAndrea Calzavara

Line-ups

Monza

3-4-2-1

Cagliari

4-3-1-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Monza

Cagliari

8Days since last match8

Last match: 11 Oct · the Italian Serie A

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Cagliari	6	+3	13
15	Monza	6	−6	4

In the news

from the pressAll ›

Serie A official line-ups and live updates: Monza vs. CagliariFootball Italia · 19 Oct 16:34 · Monza, Cagliari Who will replace Spalletti for Juventus vs. Lazio after Cagliari red card?Football Italia · 18 Oct 13:02 · Juventus, Lazio, Cagliari

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Monza

3-4-2-1

1 N. Törnqvist

60 E. Kouadio

2 S. Goglichidze

44 A. Carboni

19 S. Birindelli

8 M. Ondoa

14 E. Akinsanmiro

7 Ricardo Mangas

47 Dany Mota

46 Jay Robinson

9 Gustavo Varela

Coach · I. Juric

Substitutes

6 · V. Antov

24 · A. Bakoune

26 · P. Ciurria

21 · L. Colombo

28 · A. Colpani

10 · P. Cutrone

90 · M. Folorunsho

11 · O. Forson

80 · M. Mout

16 · C. Ngonge

43 · A. Strajnar

20 · D. Thiam

Cagliari

4-3-1-2

1 E. Caprile

2 Zé Pedro

26 Y. Mina

15 J. Rodríguez

33 A. Obert

8 M. Adopo

6 H. Winks

4 A. Romano

70 D. Maldini

31 P. Mendy

18 M'Bala Nzola

Coach · F. Pisacane

Substitutes

28 · Y. Sugawara

32 · Ivan Stoyanov Sulev

14 · A. Deiola

12 · A. Sherri

23 · B. Radunović

79 · Y. Massolin

27 · J. Liteta

22 · R. Kofler

9 · Kevin Carlos

21 · R. Gagliardini

10 · J. Fazzini

39 · A. Fadera

20 · R. Ciervo

24 · G. Aurelio

Our number · cagliari winFirst published 13 Oct 05:25 · locked at kick-off

38% The market30%

Us38%

~~Market~~30%

We make Cagliari a 38% chance to win. The market has them at 30%. We are 8 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Monza v Cagliari~~1.24 – 1.31

~~Form · Serie A this season · since 22 Aug~~W1 D1 L4 · W4 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 4 v 13~~15 v 7

~~The market · Cagliari win~~30% · ours 38%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Cagliari win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 29% to 30% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Monza win	35%	41%	−6
Draw	27%	29%	−2
Cagliari win	38%	30%	+8
Over 2.5 goals	47%	46%	+1
Both teams to score	52%	52%	0
Over 1.5 goals	72%	71%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	25%	27%	−2
Monza or draw	62%	70%	−8
Monza clean sheet	27%	–	–
Cagliari clean sheet	29%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.8%

0123450 8.3 10.0 6.7 3.0 1 9.5 12.8 8.1 3.6 2 6.0 7.7 5.0 2.2 3 2.5 3.2 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Monza down, Cagliari across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,969 Serie A matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Serie A matches have gone over 2.5 in 58.8% of games this season, across 68 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.25 goals a meeting; 2 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Monza at home: 1.00 scored, 2.50 conceded a game (last 6). Cagliari away: 1.00 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.24 goals for Monza, 1.31 for Cagliari. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 19 Oct 17:00. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.25

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 4

~~Both scored~~2 of 4

~~Last meetings~~CAG 3–0 MON · MON 1–2 CAG · MON 1–0 CAG · CAG 1–1 MON

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Serie A this season · since 22 Aug

MONZA

LLDLWL1–4 · 2–3 · 1–1 · 2–3 · 2–1 · 1–3

CAGLIARI

WLWWWD1–0 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Inter	7	+12	19
2	Lazio	7	+10	19
3	AS Roma	7	+13	17
4	AC Milan	7	+7	15
5	Como	7	+5	14
6	Frosinone	7	+4	13
7	Cagliari	6	+3	13
8	Juventus	7	+1	11
9	Napoli	7	+3	10
10	Atalanta	7	−1	9
11	Lecce	7	−3	9
12	Sassuolo	7	−2	8
13	Torino	6	−2	7
14	Bologna	7	−4	5
15	Monza	6	−6	4
16	Parma	6	−6	4
17	Udinese	7	−7	4
18	Genoa	7	−8	4
19	Fiorentina	7	−9	4
20	Venezia	7	−10	3