Lecce v Bologna prediction · Serie A

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 16:56

Lecce 1–2 Bologna BOLOGNA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Bologna win~~47%

~~The market said~~47%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.423

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.419

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 36 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Bologna win at 47%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Bologna 47% before kick-off, 47% now. 0–0 · 24–28–47
6′Little has changed for our model: Bologna 47% before kick-off, 46% now. 0–0 · 24–29–46
16′We said Bologna at 47% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 76%. 0–1 · 7–17–76
16′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 16' Bologna win: 47% at kick-off, 45% now
16′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 16' Bologna win: 47% at kick-off, 76% now
17′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 17' Bologna win: 47% at kick-off, 45% now
17′⚽ GOAL · 17' Lecce 0–1 Bologna · Riccardo Orsolini
17′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 17' Bologna win: 47% at kick-off, 76% now
18′Bologna ahead on 17′ through Riccardo Orsolini. 0–1. 0–1 · 7–17–76
18′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 18' Bologna win: 47% at kick-off, 76% now
18′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 18' Bologna win: 47% at kick-off, 45% now
19′Bologna ahead on 17′ through Riccardo Orsolini. 0–1. 0–1 · 7–17–76
19′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 19' Bologna win: 47% at kick-off, 45% now
19′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 19' Bologna win: 47% at kick-off, 76% now
20′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 20' Bologna win: 47% at kick-off, 76% now
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 22' Bologna win: 47% at kick-off, 77% now
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 22' Bologna win: 47% at kick-off, 76% now
23′We said Bologna at 47% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 77%. 0–1 · 6–17–77
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 23' Bologna win: 47% at kick-off, 77% now
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 23' Bologna win: 47% at kick-off, 76% now
31′The goal count is tracking the 2.2 we expected. 0–1 · 5–17–77
31′🟨 YELLOW · 31' Paco Esteban · Lecce
36′The goal count is tracking the 2.2 we expected. 0–1 · 5–17–78
36′SUBSTITUTION · 36' Lecce · On: Oumar Ngom · Off: Ivan Ilić Corrected
44′🟨 YELLOW · 44' Torbjørn Heggem · Bologna
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 44' Bologna win: 47% at kick-off, 78% now
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Bologna win: 47% at kick-off, 78% now
45′SECOND HALF Lecce 0–1 Bologna
46′🟨 YELLOW · 47' Youssef Maleh · Lecce
54′SUBSTITUTION · 55' Bologna · On: Eivind Helland · Off: Torbjørn Heggem Corrected
62′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Bologna · On: Jay Enem · Off: Roberto Piccoli Corrected
62′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Lecce · On: Willem Geubbels · Off: Paco Esteban Corrected
62′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Bologna · On: Oussama El Azzouzi · Off: Tommaso Pobega Corrected
62′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Lecce · On: Konan N'Dri · Off: Santiago Pierotti Corrected
63′⚽ GOAL · 63' Lecce 1–1 Bologna · Riccardo Orsolini
64′⚽ GOAL · 64' Lecce 1–1 Bologna · Amar Fatah
75′⚽ GOAL · 75' Lecce 1–2 Bologna · Amar Fatah
75′⚽ GOAL · 75' Lecce 1–2 Bologna · Jay Enem
78′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Lecce · On: Joel Almada Monteiro · Off: Amar Fatah Corrected
78′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Lecce · On: Omri Gandelman · Off: Youssef Maleh Corrected
81′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Bologna · On: Federico Bernardeschi · Off: Nicolo Cambiaghi Corrected
81′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Bologna · On: Rahim Alhassane · Off: Juan Miranda Corrected
93′🟨 YELLOW · 94' Oussama El Azzouzi · Bologna
FTFULL TIME Lecce 1–2 Bologna
FTLecce 1–2 Bologna · Bologna win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 0–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

Get the 30-day pass ›

Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Lecce win24%

Draw29%

Bologna win47%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 14:00

VenueStadio Via del Mare

RefereeLuca J. Pairetto

Line-ups

Lecce

4-3-3

Bologna

3-4-2-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Lecce

Bologna

21Days since last match22

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
12	Lecce	5	−5	6
19	Bologna	5	−3	2

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Lecce

4-3-3

30 W. Falcone

17 D. Veiga

5 J. Siebert

44 Tiago Gabriel

25 A. Gallo

29 L. Coulibaly

20 I. Ilic

14 Y. Maleh

50 S. Pierotti

22 P. Esteban

7 A. Fatah

Coach · Eusebio Di Francesco

Substitutes

1 · M. Bleve

32 · A. Borbei

8 · S. Fofana

2 · A. Dembele

3 · C. Ndaba

18 · G. Jean

4 · K. Gaspar

16 · O. Gandelman

28 · O. Gorter

11 · K. Ndri

99 · J. Monteiro

77 · M. Kaba

79 · O. Ngom

69 · W. Geubbels

Bologna

3-4-2-1

25 M. Pessina

36 M. Darmian

16 N. Casale

14 T. Heggem

20 N. Zortea

19 L. Ferguson

4 T. Pobega

33 J. Miranda

7 R. Orsolini

28 N. Cambiaghi

91 R. Piccoli

Coach · Raffaele Palladino

Substitutes

72 · U. Happonen

1 · L. Skorupski

29 · L. De Silvestri

41 · M. Vitik

5 · E. Fauske Helland

23 · R. Alhassane

6 · N. Moro

17 · O. El Azzouzi

8 · M. Amondarain

18 · M. Libra

10 · F. Bernardeschi

9 · A. Dovbyk

22 · J. Enem

Our number · bologna winPublished 11 Oct 14:09

47% The market47%

Us47%

~~Market~~47%

We make Bologna a 47% chance to win. The market has them at 47%. We are within 0 points of the market. The model expects 0.9–1.3.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · bologna win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 49% to 47% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Lecce win	24%	24%	+1
Draw	29%	29%	0
Bologna win	47%	47%	0
Over 2.5 goals	38%	45%	−7
Both teams to score	43%	49%	−7
Over 1.5 goals	64%	69%	−5
Over 3.5 goals	18%	25%	−7
Lecce or draw	53%	53%	0
Lecce clean sheet	27%	–	–
Bologna clean sheet	42%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 14.5%

0123450 11.6 14.5 9.8 4.3 1 9.4 12.9 8.4 3.7 2 4.2 5.5 3.6 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Lecce down, Bologna across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,954 Serie A matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Serie A matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.6% of games this season, across 53 played.

Head to head

8 previous meetings, 2.50 goals a meeting; 3 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Lecce at home: 0.83 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Bologna away: 1.00 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.87 goals for Lecce, 1.33 for Bologna. Most likely score 0–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 11 Oct 13:36. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 8

~~Both scored~~3 of 8

~~Last meetings~~BOL 2–0 LEC · LEC 2–2 BOL · LEC 0–0 BOL · BOL 1–0 LEC

Form · last six in Serie A

LECCE

WWLLWL1–0 · 2–0 · 0–4 · 0–1 · 3–2 · 0–3

BOLOGNA

DLLDLD3–3 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 2–2 · 0–1 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Inter	6	+10	16
2	AS Roma	5	+11	13
3	Lazio	5	+5	13
4	Cagliari	5	+3	12
5	AC Milan	5	+6	11
6	Napoli	6	+4	10
7	Juventus	5	+4	10
8	Como	5	+3	10
9	Frosinone	6	+2	10
10	Sassuolo	5	0	7
11	Atalanta	5	−2	6
12	Lecce	5	−5	6
13	Udinese	5	−3	4
14	Torino	5	−3	4
15	Monza	5	−4	4
16	Genoa	6	−6	4
17	Parma	6	−6	4
18	Fiorentina	6	−7	4
19	Bologna	5	−3	2
20	Venezia	5	−9	0