Lazio v Parma prediction · Serie A

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 22:33

Lazio 2–1 Parma LAZIO WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Lazio win~~56%

~~The market said~~64%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.294

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.195

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 24 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Lazio win at 56%.
1′KICK-OFF Lazio v Parma
2′Much as we predicted: Lazio was 56% before kick-off and our model makes it 56% now. 0–0 · 56–26–18
31′🟨 YELLOW · 30' Oliver Provstgaard · Lazio
35′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 35' Lazio win: 56% at kick-off, 46% now
40′We published Lazio at 56%. Our model now makes it 83%. 1–0 · 83–14–3
40′🟨 YELLOW · 38' Vincent Sierro · Parma
40′⚽ GOAL · 40' Lazio 1–0 Parma
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 40' Lazio win: 56% at kick-off, 83% now
42′GOAL DISALLOWED · 42' Lazio
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Lazio win: 56% at kick-off, 43% now
45′SECOND HALF Lazio 0–0 Parma
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Lazio · On: Diogo Leite · Off: Oliver Provstgaard
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Parma · On: Adrián Bernabé García · Off: Vincent Sierro
46′HALF-TIME Lazio 0–0 Parma
49′Goals are coming at about the 2.4 we expected. 1–0 · 84–14–3
49′⚽ GOAL · 49' Lazio 1–0 Parma
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 49' Lazio win: 56% at kick-off, 84% now
51′Kenneth Taylor scores for Lazio on 50′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 84–14–3
55′We published Lazio at 56%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–0 · 85–13–2
58′We published Lazio at 56%. Our model now makes it 98%. 2–0 · 98–2–0
58′⚽ GOAL · 58' Lazio 2–0 Parma
58′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 58' Lazio win: 56% at kick-off, 98% now
59′58′: Diego Carlos puts it into the Parma net, and it is 2–0. 2–0 · 98–2–0
64′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Parma · On: Simone Lontani · Off: Christian Ordóñez
72′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Lazio · On: Fisayo Dele-Bashiru · Off: Kenneth Taylor
74′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Parma · On: Matija Frigan · Off: Diego Carlos
77′We published Lazio at 56%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
78′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Lazio · On: Manuel Lazzari · Off: Gustav Isaksen
78′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Lazio · On: Alfonso Pedraza · Off: Mattia Zaccagni
80′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Parma · On: Giovanni Fabbian · Off: José David Romero
95′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.4 across ninety minutes. 2–1 · 99–1–0
95′⚽ GOAL · 90+5' Lazio 2–1 Parma
96′Parma pull one back on 90′ through Simone Lontani. 2–1. 2–1 · 99–1–0
97′Full time, 2–1. We called Lazio at 56% — that one lands. 2–1 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Lazio 2–1 Parma
FTLazio 2–1 Parma · Lazio win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Lazio are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Lazio 56%, draw 26%, Parma 18%. Over 2.5 goals 42%, both teams to score 43%.

The AI’s read on Lazio v ParmaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Lazio win56%

Draw26%

Parma win18%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 19:45

RoundMatchday 8

VenueStadio Olimpico

RefereeAlberto Ruben Arena

Line-ups

Lazio

4-3-3

Parma

5-3-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Lazio

Parma

6Days since last match5

Last match: 18 Oct · the Italian Serie A

Last match: 19 Oct · the Italian Serie A

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Lazio	7	+10	19
19	Parma	7	−9	4

In the news

from the pressAll ›

Serie A line-ups: Lazio vs. ParmaFootball Italia · 24 Oct 18:46 · Lazio, Parma Serie A Liveblog: Napoli-Roma, Lazio-Parma, Como-Sassuolo, Cagliari-BolognaFootball Italia · 24 Oct 13:01 · Napoli, AS Roma, Lazio, Parma, Como, Sassuolo, Cagliari, Bologna Serie A: Lazio vs. Parma – probable line-ups, where to watch on TVFootball Italia · 24 Oct 09:55 · Lazio, Parma

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Lazio

4-3-3

35 C. Mandas

15 R. Floriani Mussolini

37 J. Šutalo

25 O. Provstgaard

17 Nuno Tavares

16 D. Frattesi

21 R. Belahyane

24 K. Taylor

11 G. Isaksen

14 T. Noslin

10 M. Zaccagni

Coach · G. Gattuso

Substitutes

63 · F. Serra

47 · D. Renzetti

28 · A. Przyborek

3 · L. Pellegrini

23 · Pedraza

40 · E. Motta

2 · Diogo Leite

29 · M. Lazzari

71 · V. Farcomeni

5 · D. Doekhi

7 · F. Dele-Bashiru

32 · D. Cataldi

22 · M. Cancellieri

76 · Filipe Bordon

Parma

5-3-2

40 E. Corvi

15 E. Del Prato

34 Diego Carlos

37 M. Troilo

72 D. Drobnic

14 E. Valeri

16 M. Keita

4 V. Sierro

32 C. Ordoñez

19 E. Touré

9 D. Romero

Coach · A. Gilardino

Substitutes

29 · F. Carboni

3 · A. N'Diaye

8 · B. Cremaschi

30 · G. Daffara

25 · T. De Martis

7 · Ousmane Diallo

80 · G. Fabbian

20 · M. Frigan

22 · S. Ghidotti

47 · Abdou Konate

76 · S. Lontani

27 · S. Britschgi

10 · Adrián Bernabé

Our number · lazio winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 20 Oct 00:09 · locked at kick-off

56% The market64%

Us56%

~~Market~~64%

We make Lazio a 56% chance to win. The market has them at 64%. We are 8 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–0.8.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Lazio v Parma~~1.58 – 0.78

~~Form · last six in Serie A this season · since 29 Aug~~W5 D1 L0 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 19 v 4~~2 v 19

~~The market · Lazio win~~64% · ours 56%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Lazio win The market, margin stripped

Published at 54%, 56% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 64% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Lazio win	56%	64%	−8
Draw	26%	22%	+4
Parma win	18%	14%	+4
Over 2.5 goals	42%	50%	−8
Both teams to score	43%	47%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	68%	73%	−5
Over 3.5 goals	21%	29%	−8
Lazio or draw	82%	86%	−4
Lazio clean sheet	46%	–	–
Parma clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 14.6%

0123450 9.9 7.1 2.9 1 14.6 11.8 4.5 2 11.7 9.0 3.5 3 6.2 4.8 4 2.5 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Lazio down, Parma across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,972 Serie A matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Serie A matches have gone over 2.5 in 60.6% of games this season, across 71 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.75 goals a meeting; 2 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Lazio at home: 1.83 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Parma away: 0.33 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.58 goals for Lazio, 0.78 for Parma. Most likely score 1–0.

Line-ups

Confirmed 24 Oct 19:17. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.75

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 4

~~Both scored~~3 of 4

~~Last meetings~~LAZ 1–1 PAR · PAR 0–1 LAZ · LAZ 2–2 PAR · PAR 3–1 LAZ

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Serie A this season · since 29 Aug

LAZIO

WWDWWW1–0 · 2–1 · 2–2 · 2–0 · 3–1 · 3–0

PARMA

LDLWLL0–2 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 0–3 · 0–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Inter	7	+12	19
2	Lazio	7	+10	19
3	AS Roma	7	+13	17
4	Como	8	+7	17
5	AC Milan	7	+7	15
6	Frosinone	7	+4	13
7	Torino	8	+2	13
8	Cagliari	8	−3	13
9	Juventus	7	+1	11
10	Napoli	7	+3	10
11	Atalanta	7	−1	9
12	Lecce	7	−3	9
13	Bologna	8	−2	8
14	Sassuolo	8	−4	8
15	Monza	8	−3	7
16	Udinese	7	−7	4
17	Genoa	7	−8	4
18	Fiorentina	7	−9	4
19	Parma	7	−9	4
20	Venezia	7	−10	3