Lazio v Monza prediction · Serie A

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 16:56

Lazio 3–1 Monza LAZIO WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Lazio win~~58%

~~The market said~~55%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.263

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.303

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 36 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Lazio win at 58%.
1′Much as we predicted: Lazio was 58% before kick-off and our model makes it 59% now. 0–0 · 59–23–18
2′3′ and it is 1–0: Nuno Tavares on the scoresheet for Lazio. 1–0 · 82–12–6
6′We published Lazio at 58%. Our model now makes it 82%. 1–0 · 82–13–6
7′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 7' Lazio win: 58% at kick-off, 59% now
7′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 7' Lazio win: 58% at kick-off, 82% now
8′3′ and it is 1–0: Nuno Tavares on the scoresheet for Lazio. 1–0 · 82–13–6
8′We published Lazio at 58%. Our model now makes it 82%. 1–0 · 82–13–6
8′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 8' Lazio win: 58% at kick-off, 82% now
8′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 8' Lazio win: 58% at kick-off, 59% now
12′🟨 YELLOW · 13' Andrea Carboni · Monza
19′Much as we predicted: Lazio was 58% before kick-off and our model makes it 54% now. 1–1 · 54–27–18
19′⚽ GOAL · 19' Lazio 1–1 Monza · Nuno Tavares
19′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 19' Lazio win: 58% at kick-off, 54% now
20′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 20' Lazio win: 58% at kick-off, 82% now
20′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 20' Lazio win: 58% at kick-off, 54% now
22′We published Lazio at 58%. Our model now makes it 95%. 2–0 · 95–4–1
22′⚽ GOAL · 22' Lazio 2–0 Monza · Nuno Tavares
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 22' Lazio win: 58% at kick-off, 95% now
22′⚽ GOAL · 23' Lazio 2–0 Monza · Gustav Isaksen
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 22' Lazio win: 58% at kick-off, 82% now
24′Lazio ahead on 23′ through Gustav Isaksen. 2–0. 2–0 · 95–4–1
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 24' Lazio win: 58% at kick-off, 95% now
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 24' Lazio win: 58% at kick-off, 82% now
26′Lazio ahead on 23′ through Gustav Isaksen. 2–0. 2–0 · 95–4–1
26′We published Lazio at 58%. Our model now makes it 95%. 2–0 · 95–4–1
30′We published Lazio at 58%. Our model now makes it 96%. 2–0 · 96–4–1
34′🟥 RED CARD · 34' Lazio
34′🟥 RED CARD · 35' Lorenzo Lucchesi · Monza
36′SUBSTITUTION · 37' Monza · On: Saba Goglichidze · Off: Cyril Ngonge Corrected
37′A red card for Monza on 35′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 2–0 · 96–3–1
45′SECOND HALF Lazio 2–0 Monza
45′🟨 YELLOW · 47' Danilho Doekhi · Lazio
45′⚽ GOAL · 45' Lazio 2–1 Monza · Gustav Isaksen
46′🟨 YELLOW · 47' Danilho Doekhi · Lazio
46′⚽ GOAL · 46' Lazio 2–1 Monza · Saba Goglichidze
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 47' Lazio win: 58% at kick-off, 96% now
52′SUBSTITUTION · 53' Lazio · On: Diogo Leite · Off: Danilho Doekhi Corrected
55′🟨 YELLOW · 55' Oliver Provstgaard · Lazio
60′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Lazio · On: Fisayo Dele-Bashiru · Off: Davide Frattesi Corrected
60′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Lazio · On: Josip Šutalo · Off: Oliver Provstgaard Corrected
68′🟨 YELLOW · 68' Diogo Leite · Lazio
70′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Monza · On: Adam Bakoune · Off: Ricardo Mangas Corrected
74′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Lazio · On: Alfonso Pedraza · Off: Nuno Tavares Corrected
74′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Lazio · On: Andrea Pinamonti · Off: Tijjani Noslin Corrected
79′🟨 YELLOW · 79' Ivan Juric · Monza
87′⚽ GOAL · 87' Lazio 3–1 Monza · Saba Goglichidze
87′⚽ GOAL · 88' Lazio 3–1 Monza · Andrea Pinamonti
FTFULL TIME Lazio 3–1 Monza
FTLazio 3–1 Monza · Lazio win: right · Over 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Lazio win58%

Draw23%

Monza win18%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 14:00

VenueStadio Olimpico

RefereeGuiseppe Collu

Line-ups

Lazio

4-3-3

Monza

3-4-2-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Lazio

Monza

22Days since last match23

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Lazio	5	+5	13
15	Monza	5	−4	4

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Lazio

4-3-3

35 C. Mandas

15 R. Floriani

5 D. Doekhi

25 O. Provstgaard

17 N. Tavares

16 D. Frattesi

21 R. Belahyane

24 K. Taylor

11 G. Isaksen

14 T. Noslin

10 M. Zaccagni

Coach · Gennaro Gattuso

Substitutes

47 · D. Renzetti

40 · E. Motta

2 · D. Leite

37 · J. Sutalo

23 · A. Pedraza

29 · M. Lazzari

32 · D. Cataldi

7 · F. Dele-Bashiru

71 · V. Farcomeni

9 · A. Pinamonti

63 · F. Serra

28 · A. Przyborek

Monza

3-4-2-1

1 N. Tornqvist

60 E. Kouadio

3 L. Lucchesi

44 A. Carboni

19 S. Birindelli

90 M. Folorunsho

14 E. Akinsanmiro

7 R. Mangas

16 C. Ngonge

22 E. Zeballos

9 G. Varela

Coach · Ivan Juric

Substitutes

20 · D. Thiam

43 · A. Strajnar

6 · V. Antov

2 · S. Goglichidze

24 · A. Bakoune

5 · Y. Maye

21 · L. Colombo

8 · F. Ondoa

28 · A. Colpani

80 · M. Mout

46 · J. Robinson

10 · P. Cutrone

47 · D. Mota

Our number · lazio winPublished 11 Oct 14:09

58% The market55%

Us58%

~~Market~~55%

We make Lazio a 58% chance to win. The market has them at 55%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.8–0.9.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · lazio win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 60% to 55% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Lazio win	58%	55%	+3
Draw	23%	25%	−1
Monza win	18%	20%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	50%	54%	−4
Both teams to score	48%	55%	−7
Over 1.5 goals	74%	76%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	28%	34%	−6
Lazio or draw	82%	80%	+2
Lazio clean sheet	42%	–	–
Monza clean sheet	17%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 12.2%

0123450 7.4 6.0 2.8 1 12.2 11.0 4.8 2 11.0 9.5 4.2 3 6.6 5.6 2.5 4 3.0 2.6 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Lazio down, Monza across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,954 Serie A matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Serie A matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.6% of games this season, across 53 played.

Head to head

6 previous meetings, 2.67 goals a meeting; 2 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Lazio at home: 1.50 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Monza away: 1.00 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.79 goals for Lazio, 0.88 for Monza. Most likely score 1–0.

Line-ups

Confirmed 11 Oct 13:36. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~2.67

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 6

~~Both scored~~3 of 6

~~Last meetings~~LAZ 5–1 MON · MON 0–1 LAZ · MON 2–2 LAZ · LAZ 1–1 MON

Form · last six in Serie A

LAZIO

WWWWDW2–1 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 2–2 · 2–0

MONZA

LLLDLW0–2 · 1–4 · 2–3 · 1–1 · 2–3 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Inter	6	+10	16
2	AS Roma	5	+11	13
3	Lazio	5	+5	13
4	Cagliari	5	+3	12
5	AC Milan	5	+6	11
6	Napoli	6	+4	10
7	Juventus	5	+4	10
8	Como	5	+3	10
9	Frosinone	6	+2	10
10	Sassuolo	5	0	7
11	Atalanta	5	−2	6
12	Lecce	5	−5	6
13	Udinese	5	−3	4
14	Torino	5	−3	4
15	Monza	5	−4	4
16	Genoa	6	−6	4
17	Parma	6	−6	4
18	Fiorentina	6	−7	4
19	Bologna	5	−3	2
20	Venezia	5	−9	0