Juventus v Lazio prediction · Serie A

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 22:30

Juventus 0–3 Lazio JUVENTUS WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Juventus win~~47%

~~The market said~~61%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.864

~~The market’s Brier score~~1.140

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 25 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Juventus win at 47%.
1′KICK-OFF Juventus v Lazio
2′Much as we predicted: Juventus was 47% before kick-off and our model makes it 47% now. 0–0 · 47–28–25
24′We published Juventus at 47%. Our model now makes it 76%. 1–0 · 76–17–7
24′⚽ GOAL · 24' Juventus 1–0 Lazio
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 24' Juventus win: 47% at kick-off, 76% now
25′Juventus find the net on 24′. 0–0 · 42–34–24
26′GOAL DISALLOWED · 26' Juventus
26′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 26' Juventus win: 47% at kick-off, 42% now
37′We said Juventus at 47%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 13%. 0–1 · 13–26–61
37′Goals are coming at about the 2.3 we expected. 0–1 · 13–26–61
37′⚽ GOAL · 37' Juventus 0–1 Lazio
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 37' Juventus win: 47% at kick-off, 13% now
37′THE CALL SWINGS · 37' Lazio win is now our likeliest result at 61% (was Juventus win 13%)
38′Lazio find the net on 37′. 0–1. 0–1 · 13–26–61
42′🟨 YELLOW · 41' Kenneth Taylor · Lazio
45′SECOND HALF Juventus 0–1 Lazio
46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Juventus · On: Nick Woltemade · Off: Kerim Alajbegovic
47′HALF-TIME Juventus 0–1 Lazio
49′🟨 YELLOW · 48' Mattia Zaccagni · Lazio
50′We said Juventus at 47%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–25–66
56′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 56' Juventus win: 47% at kick-off, 7% now
66′We said Juventus at 47%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 1%. 0–2 · 1–4–96
66′⚽ GOAL · 66' Juventus 0–2 Lazio
67′Gustav Isaksen scores for Lazio on 66′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 0–4–96
69′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Juventus · On: Francisco Conceicao · Off: Douglas Luiz Soares
69′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Juventus · On: Edon Zhegrova · Off: Nicolás Iván Gonzalez
69′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Lazio · On: Fisayo Dele-Bashiru · Off: Kenneth Taylor
70′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Lazio · On: Andrea Pinamonti · Off: Tijjani Noslin
75′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Juventus · On: Andrea Cambiaso · Off: Zeki Çelik
79′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Lazio · On: Manuel Lazzari · Off: Gustav Isaksen
86′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Lazio · On: Alfonso Pedraza · Off: Mattia Zaccagni
88′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.3 across ninety minutes. 0–3 · 0–0–100
88′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Juventus · On: Jérémie Boga · Off: Pape Matar Sarr
88′⚽ GOAL · 88' Juventus 0–3 Lazio
90′89′: Fisayo Dele-Bashiru on the scoresheet for Lazio, making it 0–3. 0–3 · 0–0–100
FTFULL TIME Juventus 0–3 Lazio
FTJuventus 0–3 Lazio · Juventus win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Juventus are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Juventus 47%, draw 28%, Lazio 25%. Over 2.5 goals 41%, both teams to score 46%.

The AI’s read on Juventus v LazioBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Juventus win47%

Draw28%

Lazio win25%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 19:45

RoundMatchday 7

VenueAllianz Stadium

RefereeDavide Massa

Line-ups

Juventus

4-2-3-1

Lazio

4-3-3

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Juventus

Lazio

3Days since last match7

Last match: 15 Oct · UEFA Europa League

Last match: 11 Oct · the Italian Serie A

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Lazio	6	+7	16
8	Juventus	6	+4	11

In the news

from the pressAll ›

Serie A official line-ups: Juventus vs. LazioFootball Italia · 18 Oct 18:41 · Juventus, Lazio Official: Lazio confirm squad list of 24 players take on Juventus in Serie AFootball Italia · 18 Oct 14:14 · Lazio, Juventus Official: Spalletti confirms 23-man Juventus squad to take on LazioFootball Italia · 18 Oct 13:17 · Juventus, Lazio Serie A Liveblog: Fiorentina-Como, Milan-Atalanta, Juventus-LazioFootball Italia · 18 Oct 13:04 · Como, AC Milan, Atalanta, Juventus, Lazio

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Juventus

4-2-3-1

25 G. Vicario

15 P. Kalulu

3 Bremer

26 J. Lucumi

2 Z. Celik

12 Douglas Luiz

29 P. M. Sarr

31 N. Gonzalez

22 W. McKennie

17 K. Alajbegovic

9 R. Kolo Muani

Coach · Luciano Spalletti

Substitutes

33 · Neto

23 · C. Pinsoglio

6 · L. Kelly

20 · A. Cambiaso

4 · F. Gatti

24 · D. Rugani

32 · J. Cabal

8 · T. Koopmeiners

27 · N. Woltemade

13 · J. Boga

11 · E. Zhegrova

7 · F. Conceicao

Lazio

4-3-3

35 C. Mandas

15 R. Floriani

37 J. Sutalo

25 O. Provstgaard

17 N. Tavares

16 D. Frattesi

21 R. Belahyane

24 K. Taylor

11 G. Isaksen

14 T. Noslin

10 M. Zaccagni

Coach · Gennaro Gattuso

Substitutes

47 · D. Renzetti

40 · E. Motta

2 · D. Leite

3 · L. Pellegrini

23 · A. Pedraza

5 · D. Doekhi

29 · M. Lazzari

32 · D. Cataldi

7 · F. Dele-Bashiru

71 · V. Farcomeni

9 · A. Pinamonti

63 · F. Serra

28 · A. Przyborek

Our number · juventus winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

47% The market61%

Us47%

~~Market~~61%

We make Juventus a 47% chance to win. The market has them at 61%. We are 14 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Juventus v Lazio~~1.40 – 0.94

~~Form · Serie A this season · since 23 Aug~~W3 D2 L1 · W5 D1 L0

~~Table places · points 11 v 16~~8 v 3

~~The market · Juventus win~~61% · ours 47%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Juventus win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 57% to 61% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Juventus win	47%	61%	−14
Draw	28%	23%	+5
Lazio win	25%	16%	+9
Over 2.5 goals	41%	50%	−9
Both teams to score	46%	49%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	68%	74%	−6
Over 3.5 goals	21%	30%	−9
Juventus or draw	75%	84%	−9
Juventus clean sheet	39%	–	–
Lazio clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.2%

0123450 10.1 8.8 4.3 1 13.2 12.9 5.9 2 9.4 8.7 4.1 3 4.4 4.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Juventus down, Lazio across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,965 Serie A matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Serie A matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.2% of games this season, across 64 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.20 goals a meeting; 4 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Juventus at home: 1.33 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Lazio away: 1.50 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.40 goals for Juventus, 0.94 for Lazio. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.20

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~JUV 2–2 LAZ · LAZ 1–0 JUV · LAZ 1–1 JUV · JUV 1–0 LAZ

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Serie A this season · since 23 Aug

JUVENTUS

WWDLWD1–0 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 2–3 · 2–0 · 1–1

LAZIO

WWWDWW1–0 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 2–2 · 2–0 · 3–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Inter	7	+12	19
2	AS Roma	7	+13	17
3	Lazio	6	+7	16
4	Como	7	+5	14
5	Frosinone	7	+4	13
6	Cagliari	6	+3	13
7	AC Milan	6	+6	12
8	Juventus	6	+4	11
9	Napoli	7	+3	10
10	Atalanta	6	0	9
11	Lecce	7	−3	9
12	Sassuolo	7	−2	8
13	Torino	6	−2	7
14	Bologna	7	−4	5
15	Monza	6	−6	4
16	Parma	6	−6	4
17	Udinese	7	−7	4
18	Genoa	7	−8	4
19	Fiorentina	7	−9	4
20	Venezia	7	−10	3