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Inter v Parma

Inter

3–0Full time

Parma

Serie A · SAT 10 OCT · San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 20:02

Inter 3–0 Parma INTER WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Inter win~~74%

~~The market said~~82%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.104

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.048

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 41 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Inter win at 74%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Inter 74% before kick-off, 74% now. 0–0 · 74–16–9
1′KICK-OFF Inter v Parma
6′Little has changed for our model: Inter 74% before kick-off, 73% now. 0–0 · 73–17–10
12′⚽ GOAL · 13' Inter 0–0 Parma · Petar Sučić
13′⚽ GOAL · 13' Inter 1–0 Parma · Petar Sučić
15′Petar Sučić scores for Inter on 13′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 90–8–2
15′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 15' Inter win: 74% at kick-off, 90% now
15′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 15' Inter win: 74% at kick-off, 71% now
16′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 16' Inter win: 74% at kick-off, 90% now
17′⚽ GOAL · 18' Inter 1–0 Parma · Hakan Çalhanoğlu
18′18′ and it is 1–0: Hakan Çalhanoğlu on the scoresheet for Inter. 1–0 · 90–8–2
18′⚽ GOAL · 18' Inter 2–0 Parma · Hakan Çalhanoğlu
19′18′ and it is 2–0: Hakan Çalhanoğlu on the scoresheet for Inter. 2–0 · 98–2–0
19′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 19' Inter win: 74% at kick-off, 98% now
19′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 19' Inter win: 74% at kick-off, 90% now
20′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 20' Inter win: 74% at kick-off, 90% now
20′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 20' Inter win: 74% at kick-off, 98% now
21′We said Inter at 74% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 98%. 2–0 · 98–2–0
21′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 21' Inter win: 74% at kick-off, 90% now
21′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 21' Inter win: 74% at kick-off, 98% now
22′We said Inter at 74% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 98%. 2–0 · 98–2–0
31′Inter ahead on 31′ through Marcus Thuram. 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
31′⚽ GOAL · 31' Inter 3–0 Parma · Marcus Thuram
33′Inter ahead on 31′ through Marcus Thuram. 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
35′We said Inter at 74% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 100%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
37′We said Inter at 74% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 100%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
45′SECOND HALF Inter 3–0 Parma
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Inter win: 74% at kick-off, 100% now
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 46' Inter win: 74% at kick-off, 100% now
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 47' Inter win: 74% at kick-off, 100% now
48′SECOND HALF Inter 3–0 Parma
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 48' Inter win: 74% at kick-off, 100% now
49′SECOND HALF Inter 3–0 Parma
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 49' Inter win: 74% at kick-off, 100% now
50′SECOND HALF Inter 3–0 Parma
51′SECOND HALF Inter 3–0 Parma
52′SECOND HALF Inter 3–0 Parma
53′SECOND HALF Inter 3–0 Parma
54′SECOND HALF Inter 3–0 Parma
55′SECOND HALF Inter 3–0 Parma
56′SECOND HALF Inter 3–0 Parma
60′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Inter · On: Ange-Yoan Bonny · Off: Pio Esposito Corrected
61′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Inter · On: Lautaro Martínez · Off: Marcus Thuram Corrected
61′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Inter · On: Aleksandar Stankovic · Off: Hakan Çalhanoğlu Corrected
61′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Parma · On: Simone Lontani · Off: Giovanni Fabbian Corrected
61′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Parma · On: Adrián Bernabé García · Off: Vincent Sierro Corrected
62′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Parma · On: José David Romero · Off: Nesta Elphege Corrected
73′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Inter · On: Luis Henrique · Off: Federico Dimarco Corrected
73′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Inter · On: Djed Spence · Off: Andy Diouf Corrected
77′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Parma · On: Sascha Britschgi · Off: Franco Carboni Corrected
84′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Parma · On: Matija Frigan · Off: El Bilal Toure Corrected
FTFULL TIME Inter 3–0 Parma
FTInter 3–0 Parma · Inter win: right · Over 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Inter win74%

Draw16%

Parma win10%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

In the news

from the pressAll ›

Parma: ‘Better to fire Cuesta after a victory, Gilardino earned this chance’Football Italia · 16 min ago · Parma Chivu: ‘Inter happy to see internationals in action, uncertainty over Parma’Football Italia · 31 min ago · Inter, Parma Serie A official line-ups: Inter vs. ParmaFootball Italia · 1 hour ago · Inter, Parma Serie A Liveblog: Napoli-Frosinone, Inter-Parma, Genoa-FiorentinaFootball Italia · 3 hours ago · Napoli, Frosinone, Inter, Parma

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 17:00

Venue · San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza

Referee · Kevin Bonacina

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Inter

3-5-2

1 J. Martinez

28 B. Pavard

31 Y. Bisseck

30 Carlos Augusto

17 A. Diouf

8 P. Sucic

20 H. Calhanoglu

22 H. Mkhitaryan

32 F. Dimarco

9 M. Thuram

94 F. Esposito

Coach · Cristian Chivu

Substitutes

49 · I. Provedel

12 · R. Di Gennaro

95 · A. Bastoni

46 · L. Bovio

25 · M. Akanji

99 · D. Spence

7 · P. Zielinski

5 · A. Stankovic

23 · N. Barella

10 · L. Martinez

11 · Luis Henrique

14 · A. Bonny

Parma

3-4-2-1

40 E. Corvi

37 M. Troilo

34 Diego Carlos

29 F. Carboni

15 E. Delprato

16 M. Keita

4 V. Sierro

14 E. Valeri

80 G. Fabbian

19 E. B. Toure

23 N. Elphege

Coach · Alberto Gilardino

Substitutes

22 · S. Ghidotti

30 · G. Daffara

72 · D. Drobnic

27 · S. Britschgi

70 · D. Diallo

10 · A. Bernabe

8 · B. Cremaschi

32 · C. Ordonez

47 · A. Konate

20 · M. Frigan

9 · D. Romero

7 · O. Diallo

76 · S. Lontani

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Inter

3-5-2

1 J. Martinez

28 B. Pavard

31 Y. Bisseck

30 Carlos Augusto

17 A. Diouf

8 P. Sucic

20 H. Calhanoglu

22 H. Mkhitaryan

32 F. Dimarco

9 M. Thuram

94 F. Esposito

Coach · Cristian Chivu

Substitutes

49 · I. Provedel

12 · R. Di Gennaro

95 · A. Bastoni

46 · L. Bovio

25 · M. Akanji

99 · D. Spence

7 · P. Zielinski

5 · A. Stankovic

23 · N. Barella

10 · L. Martinez

11 · Luis Henrique

14 · A. Bonny

Parma

3-4-2-1

40 E. Corvi

37 M. Troilo

34 Diego Carlos

29 F. Carboni

15 E. Delprato

16 M. Keita

4 V. Sierro

14 E. Valeri

80 G. Fabbian

19 E. B. Toure

23 N. Elphege

Coach · Alberto Gilardino

Substitutes

22 · S. Ghidotti

30 · G. Daffara

72 · D. Drobnic

27 · S. Britschgi

70 · D. Diallo

10 · A. Bernabe

8 · B. Cremaschi

32 · C. Ordonez

47 · A. Konate

20 · M. Frigan

9 · D. Romero

7 · O. Diallo

76 · S. Lontani

Our number · inter winPublished 10 Oct 17:01

74% The market82%

Us74%

~~Market~~82%

We make Inter a 74% chance to win. The market has them at 82%. We are 8 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.4–0.7.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · inter win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 83% to 82% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Inter win	74%	82%	−8
Draw	16%	12%	+5
Parma win	10%	6%	+4
Over 2.5 goals	60%	68%	−8
Both teams to score	47%	45%	+2
Over 1.5 goals	82%	85%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	38%	49%	−10
Inter or draw	90%	94%	−4
Inter clean sheet	48%	–	–
Parma clean sheet	9%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 12.5%

0123450 4.7 3.1 1 10.4 7.8 2.8 2 12.5 9.0 3.3 3 9.9 7.1 2.6 4 6.1 4.3 5 3.0 2.1

under 2% 5% 12%+Inter down, Parma across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,951 Serie A matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Serie A matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.0% of games this season, across 50 played.

Head to head

4 previous meetings, 3.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Inter at home: 3.00 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Parma away: 0.50 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.41 goals for Inter, 0.73 for Parma. Most likely score 2–0.

Line-ups

Confirmed 10 Oct 16:50. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 4

~~Both scored~~2 of 4

~~Last meetings~~INT 2–0 PAR · PAR 0–2 INT · PAR 2–2 INT · INT 3–1 PAR

Form · last six in Serie A

INTER

DWWWWD3–3 · 4–1 · 1–0 · 3–2 · 5–3 · 2–2

PARMA

WLLDLW1–0 · 0–1 · 0–2 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	AS Roma	5	+11	13
2	Inter	5	+7	13
3	Lazio	5	+5	13
4	Cagliari	5	+3	12
5	AC Milan	5	+6	11
6	Frosinone	5	+5	10
7	Juventus	5	+4	10
8	Como	5	+3	10
9	Napoli	5	+1	7
10	Sassuolo	5	0	7
11	Atalanta	5	−2	6
12	Lecce	5	−5	6
13	Udinese	5	−3	4
14	Torino	5	−3	4
15	Parma	5	−3	4
16	Monza	5	−4	4
17	Fiorentina	5	−6	4
18	Bologna	5	−3	2
19	Genoa	5	−7	1
20	Venezia	5	−9	0