Inter v Fiorentina
InterFiorentinaSerie A · SUN 25 OCT · San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
Inter are clear favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Inter 68%, draw 18%, Fiorentina 14%. Over 2.5 goals 65%, both teams to score 56%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off
Inter win68%Fiorentina win14%Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 11:30
RoundMatchday 8
VenueSan Siro/Giuseppe Meazza
RefereeMaurizio Mariani
Match timeline
All events
InterMINFiorentinaEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Inter
Fiorentina
Last match: 21 Oct · UEFA Champions League
Last match: 18 Oct · the Italian Serie A
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.
The game in numbers
Match statistics
League table
2026/27Positions before kick-off
| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Inter | 7 | +12 | 19 |
| 18 | Fiorentina | 7 | −9 | 4 |
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
We make Inter a 68% chance to win. The market has them at 71%. We are 3 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.4–1.0.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 71% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Inter win | 68% | 71% | −3 |
| Draw | 18% | 17% | +1 |
| Fiorentina win | 14% | 12% | +2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 65% | 67% | −2 |
| Both teams to score | 56% | 57% | −1 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 85% | 84% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 43% | 47% | −4 |
| Inter or draw | 86% | 88% | −2 |
| Inter clean sheet | 38% | – | – |
| Fiorentina clean sheet | 10% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
Last 10 meetingsEvery competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · last six in Serie A this season · since 29 Aug
INTER
FIORENTINA
The table
2026/27| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Lazio | 8 | +11 | 22 |
| 2 | Inter | 7 | +12 | 19 |
| 3 |  AS Roma | 8 | +13 | 18 |
| 4 |  Como | 8 | +7 | 17 |
| 5 |  AC Milan | 7 | +7 | 15 |
| 6 |  Frosinone | 7 | +4 | 13 |
| 7 |  Torino | 8 | +2 | 13 |
| 8 |  Cagliari | 8 | −3 | 13 |
| 9 |  Napoli | 8 | +3 | 11 |
| 10 |  Juventus | 7 | +1 | 11 |
| 11 |  Atalanta | 7 | −1 | 9 |
| 12 |  Lecce | 7 | −3 | 9 |
| 13 |  Bologna | 8 | −2 | 8 |
| 14 |  Sassuolo | 8 | −4 | 8 |
| 15 |  Monza | 8 | −3 | 7 |
| 16 |  Udinese | 7 | −7 | 4 |
| 17 |  Genoa | 7 | −8 | 4 |
| 18 | Fiorentina | 7 | −9 | 4 |
| 19 |  Parma | 8 | −10 | 4 |
| 20 |  Venezia | 7 | −10 | 3 |
The competition's standings before kick-off.