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Genoa v Fiorentina

Genoa

2–1Full time

Fiorentina

Serie A · SAT 10 OCT · Luigi Ferraris

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 16:30

Genoa 2–1 Fiorentina FIORENTINA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Fiorentina win~~40%

~~The market said~~42%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.687

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.771

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay7 notes · 31 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Fiorentina win at 40%.
2′Much as we predicted: Fiorentina was 40% before kick-off and our model makes it 40% now. 0–0 · 33–28–40
2′KICK-OFF Genoa v Fiorentina
6′Genoa find the net on 7′. 1–0. 1–0 · 61–22–17
6′⚽ GOAL · 7' Genoa 1–0 Fiorentina
6′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 6' Fiorentina win: 40% at kick-off, 17% now
6′THE CALL SWINGS · 6' Genoa win is now our likeliest result at 61% (was Fiorentina win 17%)
7′We said Fiorentina at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 17%. 1–0 · 61–22–17
14′Junior Messias scores for Genoa on 15′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 85–11–5
14′🟨 YELLOW · 15' Luca Ranieri · Fiorentina
14′⚽ GOAL · 14' Genoa 2–0 Fiorentina · Milutin Osmajić
14′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 14' Fiorentina win: 40% at kick-off, 5% now
14′⚽ GOAL · 15' Genoa 2–0 Fiorentina · Junior Messias
16′We said Fiorentina at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 5%. 2–0 · 85–10–5
19′⚽ GOAL · 19' Genoa 2–1 Fiorentina · Junior Messias
20′We said Fiorentina at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 2–0 · 86–10–4
20′🟨 YELLOW · 21' Christ Inao Oulaï · Fiorentina
46′HALF-TIME Genoa 2–0 Fiorentina
47′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Fiorentina · On: Alieu Njie · Off: Christ Inao Oulaï Corrected
47′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Fiorentina · On: Viery · Off: Luca Ranieri Corrected
47′SECOND HALF Genoa 2–0 Fiorentina
57′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Genoa · On: Vítor Manuel Carvalho Oliveira · Off: Junior Messias Corrected
57′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Genoa · On: Samuel Wiafe · Off: Stephan El Shaarawy Corrected
60′Goals are coming at about the 2.4 we expected. 2–0 · 95–4–1
62′🟨 YELLOW · 60' Viery · Fiorentina
64′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Fiorentina · On: Mateo Pellegrino · Off: Beto Corrected
64′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 64' Fiorentina win: 40% at kick-off, 0% now
66′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Genoa · On: Alessandro Marcandalli · Off: Sebastian Otoa Corrected
74′⚽ GOAL · 73' Genoa 2–1 Fiorentina · Johan Vásquez
74′🟨 YELLOW · 74' Hamed Junior Traorè · Genoa
81′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Fiorentina · On: Domilson Dodo · Off: Álex Jiménez Corrected
81′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Fiorentina · On: Pedro Goncalves · Off: Wilfried Gnonto Corrected
81′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Genoa · On: David Puczka · Off: Kingsley Ehizibue Corrected
81′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Genoa · On: Stefano Sabelli · Off: Mikael Ellertsson Corrected
86′🟨 YELLOW · 84' Johan Vásquez · Genoa
86′🟨 YELLOW · 85' Samuel Wiafe · Genoa
92′🟨 YELLOW · 91' Vítor Manuel Carvalho Oliveira · Genoa
95′🟨 YELLOW · 95' Stefano Sabelli · Genoa
FTFULL TIME Genoa 2–1 Fiorentina
FTGenoa 2–1 Fiorentina · Fiorentina win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Genoa win33%

Draw28%

Fiorentina win40%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

In the news

from the pressAll ›

Serie A Liveblog: Napoli-Frosinone, Inter-Parma, Genoa-FiorentinaFootball Italia · 1 hour ago · Napoli, Frosinone, Inter, Parma, Genoa, Fiorentina Allegri: ‘I was hurt after Fiorentina, our players play for longer than in the Premier League’Football Italia · 1 day ago · Fiorentina

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 14:00

Venue · Luigi Ferraris

Referee · Fabio Maresca

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Genoa

4-2-3-1

1 J. Bijlow

3 K. Ehizibue

34 S. Otoa

5 L. Ostigard

22 J. Vasquez

25 H. J. Traore

32 M. Frendrup

77 M. E. Ellertsson

10 Junior Messias

92 S. El Shaarawy

18 M. Osmajic

Coach · Daniele De Rossi

Substitutes

39 · D. Sommariva

99 · F. Stolz

16 · C. Drameh

27 · A. Marcandalli

14 · L. Klisys

20 · S. Sabelli

2 · M. Mitaj

31 · D. Puczka

75 · G. Lafont

8 · T. Baldanzi

21 · J. Robinho

9 · Vitinha

71 · S. Wiafe

Fiorentina

4-2-3-1

43 D. de Gea

20 A. Jimenez

3 R. Dragusin

6 L. Ranieri

21 V. Valdepenas

27 C. Ndour

44 N. Fagioli

30 F. Mastantuono

42 C. Inao Oulai

29 W. Gnonto

23 Beto

Coach · Paolo Vanoli

Substitutes

19 · L. Lezzerini

53 · O. Christensen

5 · M. Pongracic

33 · Viery

2 · Dodo

17 · Joao Mario

4 · M. Brescianini

28 · Pote

32 · M. Pellegrino

25 · A. Njie

72 · B. Mazzeo

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Genoa

4-2-3-1

1 J. Bijlow

3 K. Ehizibue

34 S. Otoa

5 L. Ostigard

22 J. Vasquez

25 H. J. Traore

32 M. Frendrup

77 M. E. Ellertsson

10 Junior Messias

92 S. El Shaarawy

18 M. Osmajic

Coach · Daniele De Rossi

Substitutes

39 · D. Sommariva

99 · F. Stolz

16 · C. Drameh

27 · A. Marcandalli

14 · L. Klisys

20 · S. Sabelli

2 · M. Mitaj

31 · D. Puczka

75 · G. Lafont

8 · T. Baldanzi

21 · J. Robinho

9 · Vitinha

71 · S. Wiafe

Fiorentina

4-2-3-1

43 D. de Gea

20 A. Jimenez

3 R. Dragusin

6 L. Ranieri

21 V. Valdepenas

27 C. Ndour

44 N. Fagioli

30 F. Mastantuono

42 C. Inao Oulai

29 W. Gnonto

23 Beto

Coach · Paolo Vanoli

Substitutes

19 · L. Lezzerini

53 · O. Christensen

5 · M. Pongracic

33 · Viery

2 · Dodo

17 · Joao Mario

4 · M. Brescianini

28 · Pote

32 · M. Pellegrino

25 · A. Njie

72 · B. Mazzeo

Our number · fiorentina winPublished 10 Oct 14:16

40% The market42%

Us40%

~~Market~~42%

We make Fiorentina a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 42%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.2–1.3.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · fiorentina win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 41% to 42% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Genoa win	33%	29%	+4
Draw	28%	30%	−2
Fiorentina win	40%	42%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	44%	46%	−1
Both teams to score	50%	52%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	70%	70%	0
Over 3.5 goals	23%	26%	−3
Genoa or draw	60%	58%	+2
Genoa clean sheet	28%	–	–
Fiorentina clean sheet	32%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.0%

0123450 9.1 11.0 7.3 3.2 1 9.7 13.0 8.2 3.6 2 5.7 7.3 4.7 2.1 3 2.2 2.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Genoa down, Fiorentina across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,951 Serie A matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Serie A matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.0% of games this season, across 50 played.

Head to head

8 previous meetings, 3.00 goals a meeting; 5 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Genoa at home: 0.83 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 6). Fiorentina away: 1.33 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.15 goals for Genoa, 1.29 for Fiorentina. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 10 Oct 13:39. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 8

~~Both scored~~5 of 8

~~Last meetings~~FIO 0–0 GEN · GEN 2–2 FIO · FIO 2–1 GEN · GEN 0–1 FIO

Form · last six in Serie A

GENOA

LLLLDL0–1 · 0–2 · 0–1 · 1–4 · 1–1 · 1–2

FIORENTINA

DLLLWD1–1 · 0–4 · 0–3 · 1–2 · 4–2 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	AS Roma	5	+11	13
2	Inter	5	+7	13
3	Lazio	5	+5	13
4	Cagliari	5	+3	12
5	AC Milan	5	+6	11
6	Frosinone	5	+5	10
7	Juventus	5	+4	10
8	Como	5	+3	10
9	Napoli	5	+1	7
10	Sassuolo	5	0	7
11	Atalanta	5	−2	6
12	Lecce	5	−5	6
13	Udinese	5	−3	4
14	Torino	5	−3	4
15	Parma	5	−3	4
16	Monza	5	−4	4
17	Fiorentina	5	−6	4
18	Bologna	5	−3	2
19	Genoa	5	−7	1
20	Venezia	5	−9	0