Frosinone v Sassuolo prediction · Serie A

Full timeGraded 16 Oct 22:30

Frosinone 4–2 Sassuolo FROSINONE WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Frosinone win~~40%

~~The market said~~40%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.548

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.548

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay19 notes · 32 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Frosinone win at 40%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Frosinone 40% before kick-off, 40% now. 0–0 · 40–24–36
1′KICK-OFF Frosinone v Sassuolo
9′We said Frosinone at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 65%. 1–0 · 65–20–15
9′⚽ GOAL · 9' Frosinone 1–0 Sassuolo
9′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 9' Frosinone win: 40% at kick-off, 65% now
10′9′: Giacomo Calò on the scoresheet for Frosinone, making it 1–0. 1–0 · 65–20–15
14′⚽ GOAL · 14' Frosinone 1–1 Sassuolo
14′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 14' Frosinone win: 40% at kick-off, 39% now
15′Sassuolo level it on 14′ through Domenico Berardi. 1–1. 1–1 · 39–27–34
16′⚽ GOAL · 16' Frosinone 2–1 Sassuolo
16′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 16' Frosinone win: 40% at kick-off, 66% now
17′Giorgi Kvernadze scores for Frosinone on 17′. 1–1 · 38–27–34
17′GOAL DISALLOWED · 17' Frosinone
17′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 17' Frosinone win: 40% at kick-off, 38% now
18′Sassuolo level it on 15′ through Domenico Berardi. 1–1. 1–1 · 38–28–34
26′⚽ GOAL · 26' Frosinone 2–1 Sassuolo
26′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 26' Frosinone win: 40% at kick-off, 67% now
27′Antonio Raimondo scores for Frosinone on 26′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 67–21–13
30′We said Frosinone at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 88%. 3–1 · 88–9–3
30′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.0 across ninety minutes. 3–1 · 88–9–3
30′⚽ GOAL · 30' Frosinone 3–1 Sassuolo
30′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 30' Frosinone win: 40% at kick-off, 88% now
31′30′: Antonio Raimondo on the scoresheet for Frosinone, making it 3–1. 3–1 · 88–9–3
37′5 goals already, more than the 3.0 we expected for the whole match. 3–2 · 68–21–11
37′⚽ GOAL · 37' Frosinone 3–2 Sassuolo
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 37' Frosinone win: 40% at kick-off, 68% now
38′Sassuolo pull one back on 37′ through Kristian Thorstvedt. 3–2. 3–2 · 68–21–10
44′We said Frosinone at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 70%. 3–2 · 70–21–9
45′SECOND HALF Frosinone 3–2 Sassuolo
46′HALF-TIME Frosinone 3–2 Sassuolo
57′We said Frosinone at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 94%. 4–2 · 94–5–1
57′That is 6, and we only asked for 3.0 across ninety minutes. 4–2 · 94–5–1
57′⚽ GOAL · 57' Frosinone 4–2 Sassuolo
57′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 57' Frosinone win: 40% at kick-off, 94% now
59′Antonio Raimondo scores for Frosinone on 57′ — 4–2. 4–2 · 94–5–1
59′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Sassuolo · On: Kieron Bowie · Off: Kristian Thorstvedt
60′We said Frosinone at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 4–2 · 95–5–1
68′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Sassuolo · On: Benjamin Dominguez · Off: Sebastiano Esposito
68′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Sassuolo · On: Luca Lipani · Off: Nemanja Matić
68′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Sassuolo · On: Rafael Obrador · Off: Josh Doig
75′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Frosinone · On: Omar Fayed Abdelwahab El Rakhawy · Off: Ilario Monterisi
75′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Frosinone · On: Alessio Zerbin · Off: Giorgi Kvernadze
81′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Frosinone · On: Wisdom Amey · Off: Anthony Oyono
81′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Frosinone · On: Matteo Cichella · Off: Giacomo Calò
82′🟨 YELLOW · 82' Kieron Bowie · Sassuolo
84′We said Frosinone at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 4–2 · 100–0–0
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 84' Frosinone win: 40% at kick-off, over 99% now
84′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Sassuolo · On: Cristian Volpato · Off: Armand Lauriente
91′SUBSTITUTION · 90' Frosinone · On: Daniel Birligea · Off: Antonio Raimondo
94′4–2 at the end. Our 40% on Frosinone comes in. 4–2 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Frosinone 4–2 Sassuolo
FTFrosinone 4–2 Sassuolo · Frosinone win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Frosinone are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Frosinone 40%, draw 25%, Sassuolo 35%. Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 60%.

The AI’s read on Frosinone v SassuoloBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

Frosinone win40%

Draw25%

Sassuolo win35%

Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 19:45

RoundMatchday 7

VenuePSC Arena

RefereeMatteo Marchetti

Line-ups

Frosinone

4-2-3-1

Sassuolo

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Frosinone

Sassuolo

6Days since last match5

Last match: 10 Oct · the Italian Serie A

Last match: 11 Oct · the Italian Serie A

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Frosinone	6	+2	10
11	Sassuolo	6	0	8

In the news

from the pressAll ›

Serie A: Frosinone vs. Sassuolo – Confirmed line-ups and updatesFootball Italia · 16 Oct 18:51 · Frosinone, Sassuolo Report: Sassuolo considering Acerbi opportunity after Leysen injuryFootball Italia · 15 Oct 18:07 · Sassuolo

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Frosinone

4-2-3-1

22 L. Palmisani

20 A. Oyono

2 G. Cittadini

30 I. Monterisi

79 G. Bracaglia

14 G. Calo

73 P. Masini

7 F. Ghedjemis

10 R. Schmid

17 G. Kvernadze

9 A. Raimondo

Coach · Massimiliano Alvini

Substitutes

12 · M. Pisseri

91 · S. Desplanches

71 · A. Terzic

3 · G. Calvani

25 · K. Akpoguma

34 · A. El Azzouzi

90 · E. Tchato

5 · W. Amey

74 · O. Fayed

70 · L. Hasa

16 · M. Cichella

89 · T. Bobcek

11 · D. Birligea

40 · S. Fini

24 · A. Zerbin

Sassuolo

4-2-3-1

49 A. Muric

20 I. Van der Brempt

26 C. Odenthal

15 D. Caleta-Car

3 J. Doig

18 N. Matic

50 D. Bakola

10 D. Berardi

42 K. Thorstvedt

45 A. Lauriente

94 S. Esposito

Coach · Alberto Aquilani

Substitutes

80 · S. Turati

12 · G. Satalino

6 · S. Walukiewicz

70 · E. Pieragnolo

5 · F. Cande

33 · R. Obrador

46 · S. Cinquegrano

8 · A. Ghion

7 · C. Volpato

35 · L. Lipani

17 · V. Adzic

55 · I. Sulemana

19 · L. Skjellerup

25 · B. Dominguez

9 · K. Bowie

Our number · frosinone winFirst published 10 Oct 03:49 · updated 11 Oct 03:59 · locked at kick-off

40% The market40%

Us40%

~~Market~~40%

We make Frosinone a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 40%. We are level with the market. The model expects 1.5–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Frosinone v Sassuolo~~1.55 – 1.45

~~Form · Serie A this season · since 23 Aug~~W3 D1 L2 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 10 v 8~~9 v 11

~~The market · Frosinone win~~40% · ours 40%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Frosinone win The market, margin stripped

Published at 42%, 40% now. The market has gone from 39% to 40% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Frosinone win	40%	40%	0
Draw	25%	26%	−1
Sassuolo win	35%	34%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	57%	65%	−8
Both teams to score	60%	68%	−8
Over 1.5 goals	80%	84%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	35%	47%	−12
Frosinone or draw	65%	66%	−1
Frosinone clean sheet	24%	–	–
Sassuolo clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.4%

0123450 5.6 7.0 5.2 2.6 1 7.5 11.4 7.9 3.8 2 6.0 8.5 6.1 2.9 3 3.1 4.4 3.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Frosinone down, Sassuolo across0–5 goals a side shown (98.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,961 Serie A matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Serie A matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.7% of games this season, across 60 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 5 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.60 goals a meeting; 2 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Frosinone at home: 1.33 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Sassuolo away: 0.83 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.55 goals for Frosinone, 1.45 for Sassuolo. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.60

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 5

~~Both scored~~3 of 5

~~Last meetings~~SAS 1–1 FRO · SAS 0–1 FRO · FRO 1–2 SAS · SAS 1–0 FRO

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Serie A this season · since 23 Aug

FROSINONE

LWWDWL0–1 · 3–0 · 3–2 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 0–3

SASSUOLO

LWDWLD1–2 · 2–1 · 2–2 · 3–2 · 1–2 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Inter	6	+10	16
2	Lazio	6	+7	16
3	AS Roma	6	+11	14
4	Cagliari	6	+3	13
5	AC Milan	6	+6	12
6	Juventus	6	+4	11
7	Como	6	+3	11
8	Napoli	6	+4	10
9	Frosinone	6	+2	10
10	Atalanta	6	0	9
11	Sassuolo	6	0	8
12	Torino	6	−2	7
13	Lecce	6	−6	6
14	Bologna	6	−2	5
15	Udinese	6	−4	4
16	Monza	6	−6	4
17	Genoa	6	−6	4
18	Parma	6	−6	4
19	Fiorentina	6	−7	4
20	Venezia	6	−11	0