Fiorentina v Como

1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Como win at 42%.
2. 1′Much as we predicted: Como was 42% before kick-off and our model makes it 42% now. 0–0 · 31–27–42
3. 1′KICK-OFF Fiorentina v Como
4. 15′SUBSTITUTION · 14' Como · On: Jacobo Ramón · Off: Trevoh Chalobah Corrected
5. 29′🟨 YELLOW · 28' Álex Valle · Como
6. 32′We published Como at 42%. Our model now makes it 71%. 0–1 · 9–20–71
7. 32′⚽ GOAL · 32' Fiorentina 0–1 Como
8. 32′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 32' Como win: 42% at kick-off, 71% now
9. 33′Goals are coming at about the 2.7 we expected. 0–1 · 9–20–71
10. 34′Mattia Liberali scores for Como on 32′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 9–20–71
11. 35′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 35' Como win: 42% at kick-off, 72% now
12. 36′We published Como at 42%. Our model now makes it 91%. 0–2 · 2–7–91
13. 36′⚽ GOAL · 36' Fiorentina 0–2 Como
14. 36′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 36' Como win: 42% at kick-off, 91% now
15. 37′36′: Nico Paz on the scoresheet for Como, making it 0–2. 0–2 · 2–7–92
16. 37′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 37' Como win: 42% at kick-off, 92% now
17. 40′🟨 YELLOW · 39' Nico Paz · Como
18. 42′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.7 across ninety minutes. 1–2 · 8–20–73
19. 42′⚽ GOAL · 42' Fiorentina 1–2 Como
20. 42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Como win: 42% at kick-off, 73% now
21. 43′Fiorentina pull one back on 42′ through Marin Pongračić. 1–2. 1–2 · 7–20–73
22. 45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Como win: 42% at kick-off, 73% now
23. 45′SECOND HALF Fiorentina 1–2 Como
24. 45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Como · On: Kaiki Bruno · Off: Álex Valle Corrected
25. 48′4 goals already, more than the 2.7 we expected for the whole match. 2–2 · 26–41–33
26. 48′⚽ GOAL · 48' Fiorentina 2–2 Como
27. 48′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 48' Como win: 42% at kick-off, 33% now
28. 48′THE CALL SWINGS · 48' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Como win 33%)
29. 48′🟨 YELLOW · 45+3' Jacobo Ramón · Como
30. 49′Marin Pongračić scores for Fiorentina on 45′ — 2–2. 2–2 · 26–42–32
31. 49′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 49' Como win: 42% at kick-off, 32% now
32. 51′We published Como at 42%. Our model now makes it 75%. 1–2 · 6–19–75
33. 53′HALF-TIME Fiorentina 1–2 Como
34. 53′GOAL DISALLOWED · 45+4' Marin Pongračić · Fiorentina
35. 53′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 53' Como win: 42% at kick-off, 73% now
36. 53′THE CALL SWINGS · 53' Como win is now our likeliest result at 73% (was Draw 20%)
37. 56′We published Como at 42%. Our model now makes it 95%. 1–3 · 1–4–95
38. 56′⚽ GOAL · 56' Fiorentina 1–3 Como
39. 56′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 56' Como win: 42% at kick-off, 95% now
40. 57′Anastasios Douvikas scores for Como on 56′ — 1–3. 1–3 · 1–4–95
41. 62′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Como · On: Maximo Perrone · Off: Nico Paz Corrected
42. 64′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Fiorentina · On: Wilfried Gnonto · Off: Pedro Goncalves Corrected
43. 65′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Fiorentina · On: Víctor Valdepeñas Talavera · Off: Viery Corrected
44. 69′🟨 YELLOW · 68' Cher Ndour · Fiorentina
45. 70′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Fiorentina · On: Marco Brescianini · Off: Franco Mastantuono Corrected
46. 70′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Fiorentina · On: Domilson Dodo · Off: Álex Jiménez Corrected
47. 75′🟨 YELLOW · 75' Franco Mastantuono · Fiorentina
48. 76′🟨 YELLOW · 69' Franco Mastantuono · Fiorentina
49. 80′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Fiorentina · On: Beto · Off: Cher Ndour Corrected
50. 82′We published Como at 42%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 1–3 · 0–0–100
51. 83′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Como · On: Willy Kambwala · Off: Mattia Liberali Corrected
52. 84′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Como · On: Samuele Ricci · Off: Lucas Da Cunha Corrected
53. 93′Full time, 1–3. We called Como at 42% — that one lands. 1–3 · 0–0–100
54. FTFULL TIME Fiorentina 1–3 Como
55. FTFiorentina 1–3 Como · Como win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.