Fiorentina v Atalanta
FiorentinaAtalantaSerie A · THU 29 OCT · Stadio Artemio Franchi
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
Atalanta are narrow favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Fiorentina 31%, draw 26%, Atalanta 43%. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 56%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 23 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off
Fiorentina win31%Atalanta win43%Kick-offTHU 29 OCT · 19:45
RoundMatchday 9
VenueStadio Artemio Franchi
Match timeline
All events
FiorentinaMINAtalantaEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Fiorentina
Atalanta
Last match: 18 Oct · the Italian Serie A
Last match: 22 Oct · UEFA Europa Conference League
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.
The game in numbers
Match statistics
League table
2026/27Positions before kick-off
| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Atalanta | 7 | −1 | 9 |
| 18 | Fiorentina | 7 | −9 | 4 |
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
We make Atalanta a 43% chance to win. The market has them at 32%. We are 11 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.5.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 32% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fiorentina win | 31% | 41% | −10 |
| Draw | 26% | 27% | −1 |
| Atalanta win | 43% | 32% | +11 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 55% | −2 |
| Both teams to score | 56% | 59% | −3 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77% | 77% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31% | 35% | −4 |
| Fiorentina or draw | 57% | 68% | −11 |
| Fiorentina clean sheet | 22% | – | – |
| Atalanta clean sheet | 29% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
Last 10 meetingsEvery competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · last six in Serie A this season · since 29 Aug
FIORENTINA
ATALANTA
The table
2026/27| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Inter | 7 | +12 | 19 |
| 2 |  Lazio | 7 | +10 | 19 |
| 3 |  AS Roma | 7 | +13 | 17 |
| 4 |  Como | 8 | +7 | 17 |
| 5 |  AC Milan | 7 | +7 | 15 |
| 6 |  Frosinone | 7 | +4 | 13 |
| 7 |  Torino | 8 | +2 | 13 |
| 8 |  Cagliari | 8 | −3 | 13 |
| 9 |  Juventus | 7 | +1 | 11 |
| 10 |  Napoli | 7 | +3 | 10 |
| 11 | Atalanta | 7 | −1 | 9 |
| 12 |  Lecce | 7 | −3 | 9 |
| 13 |  Bologna | 8 | −2 | 8 |
| 14 |  Sassuolo | 8 | −4 | 8 |
| 15 |  Monza | 8 | −3 | 7 |
| 16 |  Udinese | 7 | −7 | 4 |
| 17 |  Genoa | 7 | −8 | 4 |
| 18 | Fiorentina | 7 | −9 | 4 |
| 19 |  Parma | 7 | −9 | 4 |
| 20 |  Venezia | 7 | −10 | 3 |
The competition's standings before kick-off.