Como v Sassuolo prediction · Serie A

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 16:33

Como 2–0 Sassuolo COMO WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Como win~~58%

~~The market said~~64%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.262

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.191

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 34 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Como win at 58%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Como 58% before kick-off, 58% now. 0–0 · 58–22–20
1′KICK-OFF Como v Sassuolo
6′We said Como at 58% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–0 · 80–13–7
6′⚽ GOAL · 6' Como 1–0 Sassuolo
6′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 6' Como win: 58% at kick-off, 80% now
7′Lucas Da Cunha scores for Como on 7′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 80–13–7
8′GOAL DISALLOWED · 8' Como
8′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 8' Como win: 58% at kick-off, 57% now
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 38' Como win: 58% at kick-off, 48% now
41′We said Como at 58%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 20%. 0–1 · 20–28–53
41′⚽ GOAL · 41' Como 0–1 Sassuolo
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Como win: 58% at kick-off, 20% now
41′THE CALL SWINGS · 41' Sassuolo win is now our likeliest result at 53% (was Como win 48%)
42′GOAL DISALLOWED · 42' Sassuolo
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 42' Como win: 58% at kick-off, 47% now
42′THE CALL SWINGS · 42' Como win is now our likeliest result at 47% (was Sassuolo win 53%)
45′SECOND HALF Como 0–0 Sassuolo
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Como · On: Luis Milla · Off: Samuele Ricci
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Como · On: Jayden Addai · Off: Martin Baturina
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Como · On: Jacobo Ramón · Off: Willy Kambwala
46′HALF-TIME Como 0–0 Sassuolo
48′⚽ GOAL · 48' Como 1–0 Sassuolo
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 48' Como win: 58% at kick-off, 81% now
61′We said Como at 58% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 97%. 2–0 · 97–2–0
61′The goal count is tracking the 3.0 we expected. 2–0 · 97–2–0
61′⚽ GOAL · 61' Como 2–0 Sassuolo
61′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 61' Como win: 58% at kick-off, 97% now
62′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 62' Como win: 58% at kick-off, 98% now
63′60′: Anastasios Douvikas on the scoresheet for Como, making it 2–0. 2–0 · 98–2–0
63′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Sassuolo · On: Josh Doig · Off: Rafael Obrador
63′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Sassuolo · On: Armand Lauriente · Off: Benjamin Dominguez
63′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Sassuolo · On: Luca Lipani · Off: Nemanja Matić
64′🟨 YELLOW · 63' Domenico Berardi · Sassuolo
66′🟨 YELLOW · 65' Yan Couto · Como
75′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Como · On: Ivan Smolcic · Off: Yan Couto
75′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Sassuolo · On: Cristian Volpato · Off: Domenico Berardi
81′We said Como at 58% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
87′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Sassuolo · On: Sebastiano Esposito · Off: Vasilije Adzic
88′🟨 YELLOW · 87' Ignace Van der Brempt · Sassuolo
90′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Como · On: Adrian Lahdo · Off: Lucas Da Cunha
92′🟨 YELLOW · 90+1' Luis Milla · Como
94′2–0 at the end. Our 58% on Como comes in. 2–0 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Como 2–0 Sassuolo
FTComo 2–0 Sassuolo · Como win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Como are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Como 58%, draw 22%, Sassuolo 20%. Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 55%.

The AI’s read on Como v SassuoloBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Como win58%

Draw22%

Sassuolo win20%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 14:00

RoundMatchday 8

VenueStadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia

RefereeDavide Di Marco

Line-ups

Como

4-2-3-1

Sassuolo

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Como

Sassuolo

3Days since last match8

Last match: 21 Oct · UEFA Champions League

Last match: 16 Oct · the Italian Serie A

4Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Como	7	+5	14
13	Sassuolo	7	−2	8

In the news

from the pressAll ›

Serie A official line-ups: Como vs. SassuoloFootball Italia · 24 Oct 13:06 · Como, Sassuolo Serie A Liveblog: Napoli-Roma, Lazio-Parma, Como-Sassuolo, Cagliari-BolognaFootball Italia · 24 Oct 13:01 · Napoli, AS Roma, Lazio, Parma, Como, Sassuolo, Cagliari, Bologna Fabregas: ‘If I start thinking about leaving Como, it could be the end for me here’Football Italia · 23 Oct 17:27 · Como Liberali a doubt for Como vs Sassuolo as reason for Man Utd omission emergesFootball Italia · 23 Oct 13:49 · Como, Sassuolo, Manchester United

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Como

4-2-3-1

1 J. Butez

27 Yan Couto

53 Willy Kambwala Ndengushi

2 M. Kempf

16 Kaiki

21 S. Ricci

5 M. Perrone

8 M. Caqueret

7 L. da Cunha

20 M. Baturina

9 T. Douvikas

Coach · Cesc Fàbregas

Substitutes

13 · A. Dossena

18 · E. Goldaniga

42 · J. Addai

15 · A. Lahdo

6 · Luis Milla

10 · N. Paz

4 · Jacobo Ramón Naveros

97 · Robert Sánchez

28 · I. Smolčić

3 · Álex Valle

22 · M. Vigorito

Sassuolo

4-2-3-1

80 S. Turati

20 I. Van der Brempt

15 D. Ćaleta-Car

5 Fali Candé

33 Rafael Obrador

17 Vasilije Adžić

18 N. Matić

10 D. Berardi

50 D. Bakola

25 B. Domínguez

9 K. Bowie

Coach · A. Aquilani

Substitutes

94 · S. Esposito

8 · A. Ghion

35 · L. Lipani

49 · A. Murić

26 · C. Odenthal

77 · N. Pierini

12 · G. Satalino

19 · L. Skjellerup

55 · I. Sulemana

42 · K. Thorstvedt

7 · C. Volpato

6 · S. Walukiewicz

3 · J. Doig

46 · S. Cinquegrano

45 · A. Laurienté

Our number · como winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

58% The market64%

Us58%

~~Market~~64%

We make Como a 58% chance to win. The market has them at 64%. We are 6 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.0–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Como v Sassuolo~~1.95 – 1.04

~~Form · last six in Serie A this season · since 29 Aug~~W4 D1 L1 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 14 v 8~~5 v 13

~~The market · Como win~~64% · ours 58%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Como win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 64% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Como win	58%	64%	−6
Draw	22%	20%	+2
Sassuolo win	20%	16%	+4
Over 2.5 goals	57%	66%	−9
Both teams to score	55%	61%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	80%	84%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	35%	47%	−12
Como or draw	80%	84%	−4
Como clean sheet	36%	–	–
Sassuolo clean sheet	15%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.4%

0123450 5.5 5.1 2.7 1 9.7 10.4 5.2 2 9.5 9.7 5.0 3 6.2 6.3 3.3 4 3.1 3.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Como down, Sassuolo across0–5 goals a side shown (98.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,972 Serie A matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Serie A matches have gone over 2.5 in 60.6% of games this season, across 71 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.67 goals a meeting; 2 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Como at home: 1.83 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Sassuolo away: 1.17 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.95 goals for Como, 1.04 for Sassuolo. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.67

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 3

~~Both scored~~1 of 3

~~Last meetings~~SAS 2–1 COM · COM 2–0 SAS · COM 3–0 SAS

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Serie A this season · since 29 Aug

COMO

WWWLDW2–1 · 4–1 · 2–1 · 0–2 · 0–0 · 3–1

SASSUOLO

WDWLDL2–1 · 2–2 · 3–2 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 2–4

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Inter	7	+12	19
2	Lazio	7	+10	19
3	AS Roma	7	+13	17
4	AC Milan	7	+7	15
5	Como	7	+5	14
6	Frosinone	7	+4	13
7	Torino	8	+2	13
8	Cagliari	7	−1	13
9	Juventus	7	+1	11
10	Napoli	7	+3	10
11	Atalanta	7	−1	9
12	Lecce	7	−3	9
13	Sassuolo	7	−2	8
14	Monza	8	−3	7
15	Bologna	7	−4	5
16	Udinese	7	−7	4
17	Genoa	7	−8	4
18	Fiorentina	7	−9	4
19	Parma	7	−9	4
20	Venezia	7	−10	3