Como v AS Roma prediction · Serie A

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 14:05

Como 0–0 AS Roma AS ROMA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said AS Roma win~~37%

~~The market said~~35%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.800

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.796

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 22 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said AS Roma win at 37%.
1′Little has changed for our model: AS Roma 37% before kick-off, 38% now. 0–0 · 36–27–38
1′KICK-OFF Como v AS Roma
5′Little has changed for our model: AS Roma 37% before kick-off, 37% now. 0–0 · 35–27–37
37′THE CALL SWINGS · 37' Draw is now our likeliest result at 37% (was AS Roma win 32%)
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was AS Roma win 30%)
45′SECOND HALF Como 0–0 AS Roma
45′🟨 YELLOW · 47' Assane Diao Diaoune · Como
47′🟨 YELLOW · 47' Assane Diao Diaoune · Como
50′🟨 YELLOW · 46' Marten de Roon · AS Roma
52′🟥 RED CARD · 53' Donyell Malen · AS Roma
54′🟥 RED CARD · 54' Donyell Malen · AS Roma
57′🟨 YELLOW · 57' Manu Koné · AS Roma
59′SUBSTITUTION · 60' AS Roma · On: Leonardo Balerdi · Off: Mario Hermoso Corrected
62′🟨 YELLOW · 62' Matias Soule · AS Roma
65′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Como · On: Jesús Rodríguez · Off: Maxence Caqueret Corrected
77′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Como · On: Martin Baturina · Off: Lucas Da Cunha Corrected
82′SUBSTITUTION · 82' AS Roma · On: Devyne Rensch · Off: Nahuel Molina Corrected
88′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Como · On: Marc-Oliver Kempf · Off: Yan Couto Corrected
88′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Como · On: Luis Milla · Off: Maximo Perrone Corrected
88′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Como · On: Jayden Addai · Off: Assane Diao Diaoune Corrected
89′SUBSTITUTION · 89' AS Roma · On: Emanuele Lulli · Off: Paulo Dybala Corrected
89′SUBSTITUTION · 89' AS Roma · On: Niccolò Pisilli · Off: Manu Koné Corrected
90′🟨 YELLOW · 90' Martin Baturina · Como
FTFULL TIME Como 0–0 AS Roma
FTComo 0–0 AS Roma · AS Roma win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Como win36%

Draw27%

AS Roma win37%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 11:30

VenueStadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia

RefereeMichael Fabbri

Line-ups

Como

4-1-4-1

AS Roma

3-4-2-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Como

AS Roma

21Days since last match22

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	AS Roma	5	+11	13
8	Como	5	+3	10

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

In the news

from the pressAll ›

Ludi: ‘Como proud to have Kean represent Italy, excellent rapport with staff’Football Italia · 12 min ago · Como D’Amico: ‘Como-Roma an advert for Italian football, faith in all players’Football Italia · 24 min ago · Como Serie A Liveblog including Como-Roma, Sassuolo-Milan, Cagliari-JuventusFootball Italia · 1 hour ago · Como, Sassuolo, AC Milan, Cagliari, Juventus Serie A official line-ups: Como vs. RomaFootball Italia · 1 hour ago · Como

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Como

4-1-4-1

1 J. Butez

27 Y. Couto

4 J. Ramon

99 T. Chalobah

16 Kaiki

5 M. Perrone

11 A. Diao

10 N. Paz

7 L. Da Cunha

8 M. Caqueret

9 A. Douvikas

Coach · Cesc Fabregas

Substitutes

22 · M. Vigorito

97 · R. Sanchez

13 · A. Dossena

28 · I. Smolcic

53 · W. Kambwala

3 · A. Valle

2 · M. O. Kempf

18 · E. Goldaniga

6 · L. Milla

21 · S. Ricci

30 · M. Liberali

17 · J. Rodriguez

20 · M. Baturina

15 · A. Lahdo

42 · J. Addai

AS Roma

3-4-2-1

95 P. Gollini

23 G. Mancini

5 E. Ndicka

22 M. Hermoso

20 N. Molina

15 M. De Roon

17 M. Kone

43 Wesley Franca

21 P. Dybala

7 L. Pellegrini

14 D. Malen

Coach · Piero Gasperini Gian

Substitutes

32 · D. S. Vasquez Llach

70 · G. De Marzi

26 · L. Balerdi

2 · D. Rensch

87 · D. Ghilardi

77 · E. Lulli

61 · N. Pisilli

86 · R. Mora

9 · S. Castro

18 · M. Soule

Our number · as roma winPublished 11 Oct 11:44

37% The market35%

Us37%

~~Market~~35%

We make AS Roma a 37% chance to win. The market has them at 35%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.3–1.3.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · as roma win The market, margin stripped

Published at 38%, 37% now. The market has gone from 36% to 35% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Como win	36%	38%	−2
Draw	27%	27%	0
AS Roma win	37%	35%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	47%	58%	−11
Both teams to score	52%	62%	−10
Over 1.5 goals	73%	79%	−7
Over 3.5 goals	26%	38%	−12
Como or draw	63%	65%	−2
Como clean sheet	27%	–	–
AS Roma clean sheet	29%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.7%

0123450 8.1 9.8 6.5 2.9 1 9.5 12.7 8.1 3.6 2 6.1 7.9 5.1 2.2 3 2.6 3.4 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Como down, AS Roma across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,954 Serie A matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Serie A matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.6% of games this season, across 53 played.

Head to head

4 previous meetings, 2.25 goals a meeting; 2 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Como at home: 2.17 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). AS Roma away: 2.50 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.27 goals for Como, 1.30 for AS Roma. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 11 Oct 11:00. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~2.25

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 4

~~Both scored~~2 of 4

~~Last meetings~~COM 2–1 ASR · ASR 1–0 COM · ASR 2–1 COM · COM 2–0 ASR

Form · last six in Serie A

COMO

WDWWWL4–1 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 4–1 · 2–1 · 0–2

AS ROMA

WWWWWD2–0 · 4–0 · 4–0 · 2–1 · 2–0 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Inter	6	+10	16
2	AS Roma	5	+11	13
3	Lazio	5	+5	13
4	Cagliari	5	+3	12
5	AC Milan	5	+6	11
6	Napoli	6	+4	10
7	Juventus	5	+4	10
8	Como	5	+3	10
9	Frosinone	6	+2	10
10	Sassuolo	5	0	7
11	Atalanta	5	−2	6
12	Lecce	5	−5	6
13	Udinese	5	−3	4
14	Torino	5	−3	4
15	Monza	5	−4	4
16	Genoa	6	−6	4
17	Parma	6	−6	4
18	Fiorentina	6	−7	4
19	Bologna	5	−3	2
20	Venezia	5	−9	0