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Model 1.1

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Cagliari v Juventus

Cagliari
1–1Full time
Juventus

Serie A · SUN 11 OCT · Unipol Domus

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 22:30
Cagliari 1–1 Juventus JUVENTUS WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Juventus win52%
The market said62%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.857
The market’s Brier score0.980

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay19 notes · 20 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Juventus win at 52%.
  2. 2′Much as we predicted: Juventus was 52% before kick-off and our model makes it 52% now. 0–0 · 22–26–52
  3. 14′Much as we predicted: Juventus was 52% before kick-off and our model makes it 49% now. 0–0 · 22–29–49
  4. 20′Daniel Maldini scores for Cagliari on 20′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 52–27–21
  5. 24′We said Juventus at 52%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 20%. 1–0 · 53–27–20
  6. 27′We said Juventus at 52%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 1–0 · 54–27–19
  7. 30′Goals are coming at about the 2.4 we expected. 1–0 · 55–27–18
  8. 42′We said Juventus at 52%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 1–0 · 59–27–14
  9. 46′9.0 shots for Juventus, 3.0 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 1–0 · 60–27–13
  10. 56′Daniel Maldini scores for Cagliari on 20′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 66–25–9
  11. 58′We said Juventus at 52%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 8%. 1–0 · 67–25–8
  12. 59′11.0 shots for Juventus, 3.0 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 1–0 · 68–25–8
  13. 69′We said Juventus at 52%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–0 · 75–21–4
  14. 71′Juventus have had 14.0 attempts to 3.0 and it is still 1–0. 1–0 · 77–20–4
  15. 78′Juventus have had 16.0 attempts to 3.0 and it is still 1–0. 1–0 · 84–15–2
  16. 80′81′ and it is 1–1: Randal Kolo Muani on the scoresheet for Juventus. 1–1 · 8–78–14
  17. 80′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 80' Juventus win: 52% at kick-off, 14% now
  18. 80′THE CALL SWINGS · 80' Draw is now our likeliest result at 78% (was Cagliari win 8%)
  19. 80′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 80' Juventus win: 52% at kick-off, 10% now
  20. 80′THE CALL SWINGS · 80' Cagliari win is now our likeliest result at 63% (was Draw 26%)
  21. 83′We said Juventus at 52%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 10%. 1–1 · 6–84–10
  22. 83′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 83' Juventus win: 52% at kick-off, 14% now
  23. 83′THE CALL SWINGS · 83' Draw is now our likeliest result at 78% (was Cagliari win 8%)
  24. 83′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 83' Juventus win: 52% at kick-off, 10% now
  25. 83′THE CALL SWINGS · 83' Cagliari win is now our likeliest result at 63% (was Draw 26%)
  26. 83′🟨 YELLOW · 83' Alessandro Deiola · Cagliari
  27. 84′81′ and it is 1–1: Randal Kolo Muani on the scoresheet for Juventus. 1–1 · 5–86–9
  28. 84′THE CALL SWINGS · 84' Draw is now our likeliest result at 84% (was Cagliari win 6%)
  29. 84′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Cagliari · On: Jacopo Fazzini · Off: Adam Obert Corrected
  30. 84′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Juventus · On: Teun Koopmeiners · Off: Douglas Luiz Soares Corrected
  31. 84′THE CALL SWINGS · 84' Cagliari win is now our likeliest result at 63% (was Draw 26%)
  32. 86′Goals are coming at about the 2.4 we expected. 1–1 · 4–90–6
  33. 88′Juventus have had 22.0 attempts to 3.0 and it is still 1–1. 1–1 · 2–95–3
  34. 91′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 91' Juventus win: 52% at kick-off, 0% now
  35. 91′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 91' Juventus win: 52% at kick-off, 9% now
  36. 92′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 92' Juventus win: 52% at kick-off, 9% now
  37. 92′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 92' Juventus win: 52% at kick-off, 0% now
  38. 93′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 93' Juventus win: 52% at kick-off, 9% now
  39. 93′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 93' Juventus win: 52% at kick-off, 0% now
  40. FTFULL TIME Cagliari 1–1 Juventus
  41. FTCagliari 1–1 Juventus · Juventus win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 0–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Cagliari win22%
Draw26%
Juventus win52%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 19:45

VenueUnipol Domus

RefereeMatteo Marcenaro

Line-ups

Cagliari

4-3-2-1

Juventus

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Cagliari

Juventus

22Days since last match21
0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Cagliari

4-3-2-1

1 E. Caprile

2 J. Pedro

26 Y. Mina

15 J. Rodriguez

33 A. Obert

8 M. Adopo

6 H. Winks

4 A. Romano

79 Y. Massolin

70 D. Maldini

31 P. Mendy

Coach · Fabio Pisacane

Substitutes

23 · B. Radunovic

12 · A. Sherri

28 · Y. Sugawara

24 · G. Aurelio

10 · J. Fazzini

32 · I. Sulev

27 · J. Liteta

14 · A. Deiola

21 · R. Gagliardini

22 · R. Kofler

39 · A. Fadera

35 · A. Sugamele

18 · M. Nzola

9 · Kevin

20 · R. Ciervo

Juventus

4-2-3-1

25 G. Vicario

15 P. Kalulu

3 Bremer

26 J. Lucumi

2 Z. Celik

29 P. M. Sarr

12 Douglas Luiz

7 F. Conceicao

22 W. McKennie

31 N. Gonzalez

9 R. Kolo Muani

Coach · Luciano Spalletti

Substitutes

40 · R. Radu

23 · C. Pinsoglio

6 · L. Kelly

20 · A. Cambiaso

4 · F. Gatti

24 · D. Rugani

32 · J. Cabal

8 · T. Koopmeiners

27 · N. Woltemade

17 · K. Alajbegovic

11 · E. Zhegrova

Our number · juventus winPublished 11 Oct 17:22
52% The market62%
Us52%
Market62%

We make Juventus a 52% chance to win. The market has them at 62%. We are 10 points less confident than the market. The model expects 0.9–1.5.

How the number movedSince we published
50%55%60%65% 9 OCT 06:1711 OCT 17:24
Our probability · juventus win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 61% to 62% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Cagliari win22%14%+7
Draw26%24%+2
Juventus win52%62%−10
Over 2.5 goals43%47%−5
Both teams to score45%46%−1
Over 1.5 goals69%72%−3
Over 3.5 goals22%28%−6
Cagliari or draw48%38%+10
Cagliari clean sheet22%––
Juventus clean sheet42%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 13.6%
0123450 9.6 13.6 10.5 5.3 2.0 1 7.8 12.3 9.0 4.6 2 3.5 5.3 4.0 2.0 3 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Cagliari down, Juventus across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021
Goals a meeting2.38
Over 2.54 of 8
Both scored5 of 8
Last meetingsCAG 1–0 JUV · JUV 2–1 CAG · CAG 0–1 JUV · JUV 1–1 CAG

Form · last six in Serie A

CAGLIARI

WWLWWW2–1 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 1–0

JUVENTUS

DWWDLW2–2 · 1–0 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 2–3 · 2–0

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Inter6+1016
2AS Roma5+1113
3Lazio5+513
4Cagliari5+312
5AC Milan5+611
6Napoli6+410
7Juventus5+410
8Como5+310
9Frosinone6+210
10Sassuolo507
11Atalanta5−26
12Lecce5−56
13Udinese5−34
14Torino5−34
15Monza5−44
16Genoa6−64
17Parma6−64
18Fiorentina6−74
19Bologna5−32
20Venezia5−90

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.