

Cagliari v Bologna
Cagliari
BolognaSerie A · SAT 24 OCT · Unipol Domus
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Bologna win at 42%.
- 2′Much as we predicted: Bologna was 42% before kick-off and our model makes it 42% now. 0–0 · 30–28–42
- 2′KICK-OFF Cagliari v Bologna
- 32′🟨 YELLOW · 32' Federico Bernardeschi · Bologna
- 40′🟨 YELLOW · 38' Zé Pedro · Cagliari
- 41′THE CALL SWINGS · 41' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Bologna win 37%)
- 45′HALF-TIME Cagliari 0–0 Bologna
- 45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Cagliari · On: Yukinari Sugawara · Off: Zé Pedro
- 45′SECOND HALF Cagliari 0–0 Bologna
- 47′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Cagliari · On: Roberto Gagliardini · Off: Harry Winks
- 48′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 48' Bologna win: 42% at kick-off, 32% now
- 53′We said Bologna at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 30%. 0–0 · 23–47–30
- 55′We said Bologna at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 23–48–29
- 56′We expected about 2.4 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 22–49–29
- 56′🟨 YELLOW · 55' Roberto Gagliardini · Cagliari
- 57′We published Bologna at 42%. Our model now makes it 78%. 0–1 · 4–18–78
- 57′⚽ GOAL · 57' Cagliari 0–1 Bologna
- 57′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 57' Bologna win: 42% at kick-off, 78% now
- 57′THE CALL SWINGS · 57' Bologna win is now our likeliest result at 78% (was Draw 49%)
- 59′Bologna ahead on 57′ through Nicolo Casale. 0–1. 0–1 · 4–18–79
- 62′We published Bologna at 42%. Our model now makes it 80%. 0–1 · 3–17–80
- 66′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 66' Bologna win: 42% at kick-off, 82% now
- 68′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Cagliari · On: Kevin Carlos · Off: Daniel Maldini
- 72′We published Bologna at 42%. Our model now makes it 85%. 0–1 · 2–14–85
- 76′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Bologna · On: Marco Libra · Off: Nadir Zortea
- 76′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Bologna · On: Mikel Jesús Amondarain · Off: Jens Odgaard
- 76′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Bologna · On: Rahim Alhassane · Off: Juan Miranda
- 76′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Cagliari · On: Alieu Fadera · Off: Alessandro Romano
- 78′🟨 YELLOW · 77' Alessandro Deiola · Cagliari
- 79′We published Bologna at 42%. Our model now makes it 99%. 0–2 · 0–1–99
- 79′⚽ GOAL · 79' Cagliari 0–2 Bologna
- 79′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 79' Bologna win: 42% at kick-off, 99% now
- 80′Goals are coming at about the 2.4 we expected. 0–2 · 0–1–99
- 80′Federico Bernardeschi scores for Bologna on 80′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 0–1–99
- 81′We published Bologna at 42%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 0–2 · 0–0–100
- 87′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Bologna · On: Martin Vitik · Off: Matteo Darmian
- 87′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Cagliari · On: Giuseppe Aurelio · Off: Yanis Massolin
- 90′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Bologna · On: Samuel Mbangula Tshifunda · Off: Federico Bernardeschi
- 93′Full time, 0–2. We called Bologna at 42% — that one lands. 0–2 · 0–0–100
- FTFULL TIME Cagliari 0–2 Bologna
- FTCagliari 0–2 Bologna · Bologna win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
Bologna are narrow favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Cagliari 30%, draw 28%, Bologna 42%. Over 2.5 goals 44%, both teams to score 49%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off
Cagliari win30%
Bologna win42%Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 14:00
RoundMatchday 8
VenueUnipol Domus
RefereeKevin Bonacina
Match timeline
All events
CagliariMIN
BolognaEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Cagliari
4-3-2-1
Bologna
3-4-3
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Cagliari
Bologna
Last match: 19 Oct · the Italian Serie A
Last match: 17 Oct · the Italian Serie A
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
Cagliari
4-3-2-1
1 E. Caprile
2 Zé Pedro
14 A. Deiola
15 J. Rodríguez
33 A. Obert
8 M. Adopo
6 H. Winks
4 A. Romano
79 Y. Massolin
70 D. Maldini
31 P. Mendy
Coach · F. Pisacane
Substitutes
32 · Ivan Stoyanov Sulev
39 · A. Fadera
24 · G. Aurelio
20 · R. Ciervo
10 · J. Fazzini
21 · R. Gagliardini
9 · Kevin Carlos
22 · R. Kofler
27 · J. Liteta
26 · Y. Mina
18 · M'Bala Nzola
23 · B. Radunović
12 · A. Sherri
28 · Y. Sugawara
35 · A. Sugamele
Bologna
3-4-3
1 Ł. Skorupski
36 M. Darmian
16 N. Casale
3 A. Theate
20 N. Zortea
19 L. Ferguson
4 T. Pobega
33 Juan Miranda
10 F. Bernardeschi
21 J. Odgaard
28 N. Cambiaghi
Coach · Raffaele Palladino
Substitutes
6 · N. Moro
25 · M. Pessina
41 · M. Vitík
11 · S. Mbangula
18 · M. Libra
14 · T. Heggem
72 · U. Happonen
5 · E. Helland
22 · J. Enem
17 · O. El Azzouzi
9 · A. Dovbyk
29 · L. De Silvestri
23 · R. Alhassane
8 · M. Amondarain
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Cagliari
4-3-2-1
1 E. Caprile
2 Zé Pedro
14 A. Deiola
15 J. Rodríguez
33 A. Obert
8 M. Adopo
6 H. Winks
4 A. Romano
79 Y. Massolin
70 D. Maldini
31 P. Mendy
Coach · F. Pisacane
Substitutes
32 · Ivan Stoyanov Sulev
39 · A. Fadera
24 · G. Aurelio
20 · R. Ciervo
10 · J. Fazzini
21 · R. Gagliardini
9 · Kevin Carlos
22 · R. Kofler
27 · J. Liteta
26 · Y. Mina
18 · M'Bala Nzola
23 · B. Radunović
12 · A. Sherri
28 · Y. Sugawara
35 · A. Sugamele
Bologna
3-4-3
1 Ł. Skorupski
36 M. Darmian
16 N. Casale
3 A. Theate
20 N. Zortea
19 L. Ferguson
4 T. Pobega
33 Juan Miranda
10 F. Bernardeschi
21 J. Odgaard
28 N. Cambiaghi
Coach · Raffaele Palladino
Substitutes
6 · N. Moro
25 · M. Pessina
41 · M. Vitík
11 · S. Mbangula
18 · M. Libra
14 · T. Heggem
72 · U. Happonen
5 · E. Helland
22 · J. Enem
17 · O. El Azzouzi
9 · A. Dovbyk
29 · L. De Silvestri
23 · R. Alhassane
8 · M. Amondarain
We make Bologna a 42% chance to win. The market has them at 36%. We are 6 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–1.3.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Published at 41%, 42% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 36% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cagliari win | 30% | 32% | −2 |
| Draw | 28% | 32% | −4 |
| Bologna win | 42% | 36% | +6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44% | 41% | +3 |
| Both teams to score | 49% | 50% | −1 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 70% | 66% | +4 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23% | 22% | +1 |
| Cagliari or draw | 58% | 64% | −6 |
| Cagliari clean sheet | 26% | – | – |
| Bologna clean sheet | 34% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
9 meetings since 2021/22Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · last six in Serie A this season · since 30 Aug
CAGLIARI
BOLOGNA
The table
2026/27| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Inter | 7 | +12 | 19 |
| 2 | Lazio | 7 | +10 | 19 |
| 3 | AS Roma | 7 | +13 | 17 |
| 4 | AC Milan | 7 | +7 | 15 |
| 5 | Como | 7 | +5 | 14 |
| 6 | Frosinone | 7 | +4 | 13 |
| 7 | Torino | 8 | +2 | 13 |
| 8 | Cagliari | 7 | −1 | 13 |
| 9 | Juventus | 7 | +1 | 11 |
| 10 | Napoli | 7 | +3 | 10 |
| 11 | Atalanta | 7 | −1 | 9 |
| 12 | Lecce | 7 | −3 | 9 |
| 13 | Sassuolo | 7 | −2 | 8 |
| 14 | Monza | 8 | −3 | 7 |
| 15 | Bologna | 7 | −4 | 5 |
| 16 | Udinese | 7 | −7 | 4 |
| 17 | Genoa | 7 | −8 | 4 |
| 18 | Fiorentina | 7 | −9 | 4 |
| 19 | Parma | 7 | −9 | 4 |
| 20 | Venezia | 7 | −10 | 3 |
The competition's standings before kick-off.
Inter
Lazio
AS Roma
AC Milan
Como
Frosinone
Torino
Juventus
Napoli
Atalanta
Lecce
Sassuolo
Monza
Udinese
Genoa
Fiorentina
Parma
Venezia