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Cagliari v Bologna

Cagliari
0–2Full time
Bologna

Serie A · SAT 24 OCT · Unipol Domus

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 16:33
Cagliari 0–2 Bologna BOLOGNA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Bologna win42%
The market said36%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.500
The market’s Brier score0.616

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 26 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Bologna win at 42%.
  2. 2′Much as we predicted: Bologna was 42% before kick-off and our model makes it 42% now. 0–0 · 30–28–42
  3. 2′KICK-OFF Cagliari v Bologna
  4. 32′🟨 YELLOW · 32' Federico Bernardeschi · Bologna
  5. 40′🟨 YELLOW · 38' Zé Pedro · Cagliari
  6. 41′THE CALL SWINGS · 41' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Bologna win 37%)
  7. 45′HALF-TIME Cagliari 0–0 Bologna
  8. 45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Cagliari · On: Yukinari Sugawara · Off: Zé Pedro
  9. 45′SECOND HALF Cagliari 0–0 Bologna
  10. 47′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Cagliari · On: Roberto Gagliardini · Off: Harry Winks
  11. 48′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 48' Bologna win: 42% at kick-off, 32% now
  12. 53′We said Bologna at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 30%. 0–0 · 23–47–30
  13. 55′We said Bologna at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 23–48–29
  14. 56′We expected about 2.4 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 22–49–29
  15. 56′🟨 YELLOW · 55' Roberto Gagliardini · Cagliari
  16. 57′We published Bologna at 42%. Our model now makes it 78%. 0–1 · 4–18–78
  17. 57′⚽ GOAL · 57' Cagliari 0–1 Bologna
  18. 57′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 57' Bologna win: 42% at kick-off, 78% now
  19. 57′THE CALL SWINGS · 57' Bologna win is now our likeliest result at 78% (was Draw 49%)
  20. 59′Bologna ahead on 57′ through Nicolo Casale. 0–1. 0–1 · 4–18–79
  21. 62′We published Bologna at 42%. Our model now makes it 80%. 0–1 · 3–17–80
  22. 66′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 66' Bologna win: 42% at kick-off, 82% now
  23. 68′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Cagliari · On: Kevin Carlos · Off: Daniel Maldini
  24. 72′We published Bologna at 42%. Our model now makes it 85%. 0–1 · 2–14–85
  25. 76′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Bologna · On: Marco Libra · Off: Nadir Zortea
  26. 76′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Bologna · On: Mikel Jesús Amondarain · Off: Jens Odgaard
  27. 76′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Bologna · On: Rahim Alhassane · Off: Juan Miranda
  28. 76′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Cagliari · On: Alieu Fadera · Off: Alessandro Romano
  29. 78′🟨 YELLOW · 77' Alessandro Deiola · Cagliari
  30. 79′We published Bologna at 42%. Our model now makes it 99%. 0–2 · 0–1–99
  31. 79′⚽ GOAL · 79' Cagliari 0–2 Bologna
  32. 79′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 79' Bologna win: 42% at kick-off, 99% now
  33. 80′Goals are coming at about the 2.4 we expected. 0–2 · 0–1–99
  34. 80′Federico Bernardeschi scores for Bologna on 80′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 0–1–99
  35. 81′We published Bologna at 42%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 0–2 · 0–0–100
  36. 87′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Bologna · On: Martin Vitik · Off: Matteo Darmian
  37. 87′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Cagliari · On: Giuseppe Aurelio · Off: Yanis Massolin
  38. 90′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Bologna · On: Samuel Mbangula Tshifunda · Off: Federico Bernardeschi
  39. 93′Full time, 0–2. We called Bologna at 42% — that one lands. 0–2 · 0–0–100
  40. FTFULL TIME Cagliari 0–2 Bologna
  41. FTCagliari 0–2 Bologna · Bologna win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Bologna are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Cagliari 30%, draw 28%, Bologna 42%. Over 2.5 goals 44%, both teams to score 49%.

The AI’s read on Cagliari v BolognaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Cagliari win30%
Draw28%
Bologna win42%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 14:00

RoundMatchday 8

VenueUnipol Domus

RefereeKevin Bonacina

Line-ups

Cagliari

4-3-2-1

Bologna

3-4-3

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Cagliari

Bologna

5Days since last match7

Last match: 19 Oct · the Italian Serie A

Last match: 17 Oct · the Italian Serie A

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
8Cagliari7−113
15Bologna7−45

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Cagliari

4-3-2-1

1 E. Caprile

2 Zé Pedro

14 A. Deiola

15 J. Rodríguez

33 A. Obert

8 M. Adopo

6 H. Winks

4 A. Romano

79 Y. Massolin

70 D. Maldini

31 P. Mendy

Coach · F. Pisacane

Substitutes

32 · Ivan Stoyanov Sulev

39 · A. Fadera

24 · G. Aurelio

20 · R. Ciervo

10 · J. Fazzini

21 · R. Gagliardini

9 · Kevin Carlos

22 · R. Kofler

27 · J. Liteta

26 · Y. Mina

18 · M'Bala Nzola

23 · B. Radunović

12 · A. Sherri

28 · Y. Sugawara

35 · A. Sugamele

Bologna

3-4-3

1 Ł. Skorupski

36 M. Darmian

16 N. Casale

3 A. Theate

20 N. Zortea

19 L. Ferguson

4 T. Pobega

33 Juan Miranda

10 F. Bernardeschi

21 J. Odgaard

28 N. Cambiaghi

Coach · Raffaele Palladino

Substitutes

6 · N. Moro

25 · M. Pessina

41 · M. Vitík

11 · S. Mbangula

18 · M. Libra

14 · T. Heggem

72 · U. Happonen

5 · E. Helland

22 · J. Enem

17 · O. El Azzouzi

9 · A. Dovbyk

29 · L. De Silvestri

23 · R. Alhassane

8 · M. Amondarain

Our number · bologna winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 23 Oct 04:07 · locked at kick-off
42% The market36%
Us42%
Market36%

We make Bologna a 42% chance to win. The market has them at 36%. We are 6 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Cagliari v Bologna1.09 – 1.35
Form · last six in Serie A this season · since 30 AugW3 D1 L2 · W1 D2 L3
Table places · points 13 v 58 v 15
The market · Bologna win36% · ours 42%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
30%35%40%45% 18 OCT 01:2324 OCT 13:28
Our probability · Bologna win The market, margin stripped

Published at 41%, 42% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 36% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Cagliari win30%32%−2
Draw28%32%−4
Bologna win42%36%+6
Over 2.5 goals44%41%+3
Both teams to score49%50%−1
Over 1.5 goals70%66%+4
Over 3.5 goals23%22%+1
Cagliari or draw58%64%−6
Cagliari clean sheet26%––
Bologna clean sheet34%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.0%
0123450 9.2 11.5 7.9 3.6 1 9.2 13.0 8.5 3.9 2 5.2 6.9 4.6 2.1 3 2.5 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Cagliari down, Bologna across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

9 meetings since 2021/22
Goals a meeting2.11
Over 2.54 of 9
Both scored4 of 9
Last meetingsBOL 0–0 CAG · CAG 0–2 BOL · BOL 2–1 CAG · CAG 0–2 BOL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Serie A this season · since 30 Aug

CAGLIARI

LWWWDL0–1 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 0–4

BOLOGNA

LDLDWL0–1 · 2–2 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 1–3

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Inter7+1219
2Lazio7+1019
3AS Roma7+1317
4AC Milan7+715
5Como7+514
6Frosinone7+413
7Torino8+213
8Cagliari7−113
9Juventus7+111
10Napoli7+310
11Atalanta7−19
12Lecce7−39
13Sassuolo7−28
14Monza8−37
15Bologna7−45
16Udinese7−74
17Genoa7−84
18Fiorentina7−94
19Parma7−94
20Venezia7−103

The competition's standings before kick-off.