Bologna v Monza prediction · Serie A

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

BolognaDrawMonza

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 14:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Bologna 55%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Bologna are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Bologna 55%, draw 24%, Monza 21%. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 52%.

The AI’s read on Bologna v MonzaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Bologna win55%

Draw24%

Monza win21%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 14:00

RoundMatchday 10

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Bologna

Monza

7Days since last match8

Last match: 24 Oct · the Italian Serie A

Last match: 23 Oct · the Italian Serie A

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
13	Bologna	8	−2	8
15	Monza	8	−3	7

In the news

from the pressAll ›

Serie A | Cagliari 0-2 Bologna: Sardinian bubble has burstFootball Italia · 24 Oct 15:51 · Cagliari, Bologna Serie A Liveblog: Napoli-Roma, Lazio-Parma, Como-Sassuolo, Cagliari-BolognaFootball Italia · 24 Oct 13:01 · Napoli, AS Roma, Lazio, Parma, Como, Sassuolo, Cagliari, Bologna Serie A | Torino 3-2 Monza: Belghali stunner spoils Juric’s returnFootball Italia · 23 Oct 21:42 · Torino, Monza Serie A official line-ups: Torino vs. MonzaFootball Italia · 23 Oct 18:53 · Torino, Monza

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · bologna winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

55% The market–

Us55%

We make Bologna a 55% chance to win. The model expects 1.8–1.0, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Bologna v Monza~~1.78 – 0.99

~~Form · last six in Serie A this season · since 6 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 8 v 7~~13 v 15

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Bologna win	55%	–	–
Draw	24%	–	–
Monza win	21%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	52%	–	–
Both teams to score	52%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	76%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	30%	–	–
Bologna or draw	79%	–	–
Bologna clean sheet	37%	–	–
Monza clean sheet	17%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.2%

0123450 6.7 6.1 3.2 1 10.9 11.2 5.4 2 9.8 9.6 4.8 3 5.9 5.7 2.8 4 2.7 2.6 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Bologna down, Monza across0–5 goals a side shown (98.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,976 Serie A matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Serie A matches have gone over 2.5 in 60.0% of games this season, across 75 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 7 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.14 goals a meeting; 4 of 7 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Bologna at home: 1.17 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Monza away: 1.17 scored, 2.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.78 goals for Bologna, 0.99 for Monza. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

7 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.14

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 7

~~Both scored~~3 of 7

~~Last meetings~~BOL 3–1 MON · BOL 4–0 MON · MON 1–2 BOL · BOL 0–0 MON

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Serie A this season · since 6 Sept

BOLOGNA

DLDWLW2–2 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 1–3 · 2–0

MONZA

DLWLWL1–1 · 2–3 · 2–1 · 1–3 · 4–0 · 2–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Lazio	8	+11	22
2	Inter	7	+12	19
3	AS Roma	8	+13	18
4	Como	8	+7	17
5	AC Milan	7	+7	15
6	Frosinone	7	+4	13
7	Torino	8	+2	13
8	Cagliari	8	−3	13
9	Napoli	8	+3	11
10	Juventus	7	+1	11
11	Atalanta	7	−1	9
12	Lecce	7	−3	9
13	Bologna	8	−2	8
14	Sassuolo	8	−4	8
15	Monza	8	−3	7
16	Udinese	7	−7	4
17	Genoa	7	−8	4
18	Fiorentina	7	−9	4
19	Parma	8	−10	4
20	Venezia	7	−10	3