Bologna v Inter prediction · Serie A

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 19:40

Bologna 1–3 Inter INTER WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Inter win~~55%

~~The market said~~61%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.304

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.231

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay18 notes · 35 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Inter win at 55%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Inter 55% before kick-off, 55% now. 0–0 · 22–23–55
1′KICK-OFF Bologna v Inter
11′Bologna find the net on 10′. 1–0. 1–0 · 47–24–29
11′⚽ GOAL · 10' Bologna 1–0 Inter
11′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 11' Inter win: 55% at kick-off, 29% now
11′THE CALL SWINGS · 11' Bologna win is now our likeliest result at 47% (was Inter win 29%)
12′We said Inter at 55%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 28%. 1–0 · 47–24–28
21′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 21' Inter win: 55% at kick-off, 25% now
24′We said Inter at 55%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 1–0 · 50–26–24
30′The goal count is tracking the 3.0 we expected. 1–0 · 52–26–22
32′SUBSTITUTION · 30' Bologna · On: Jay Enem · Off: Roberto Piccoli
36′🟨 YELLOW · 34' Arthur Theate · Bologna
36′🟨 YELLOW · 35' Pio Esposito · Inter
38′We said Inter at 55%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 1–0 · 54–27–19
44′⚽ GOAL · 44' Bologna 1–1 Inter
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 44' Inter win: 55% at kick-off, 44% now
44′THE CALL SWINGS · 44' Inter win is now our likeliest result at 44% (was Bologna win 21%)
45′Marcus Thuram scores for Inter on 44′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 21–36–43
45′We said Inter at 55%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 43%. 1–1 · 21–36–43
45′HALF-TIME Bologna 1–1 Inter
47′SECOND HALF Bologna 1–1 Inter
54′We said Inter at 55%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 39%. 1–1 · 19–42–39
56′THE CALL SWINGS · 56' Draw is now our likeliest result at 43% (was Inter win 38%)
58′🟨 YELLOW · 57' Tommaso Pobega · Bologna
59′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Inter · On: Ange-Yoan Bonny · Off: Pio Esposito
61′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 61' Inter win: 55% at kick-off, 35% now
62′We said Inter at 55%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 1–1 · 18–48–34
64′🟨 YELLOW · 61' Marcus Thuram · Inter
64′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Bologna · On: Eivind Helland · Off: Arthur Theate
69′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Inter · On: Andy Diouf · Off: Luis Henrique
70′We said Inter at 55% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–2 · 2–13–85
70′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Inter · On: Carlos Augusto · Off: Federico Dimarco
70′⚽ GOAL · 70' Bologna 1–2 Inter
70′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 70' Inter win: 55% at kick-off, 85% now
70′THE CALL SWINGS · 70' Inter win is now our likeliest result at 85% (was Draw 13%)
71′3 goals already, more than the 3.0 we expected for the whole match. 1–2 · 2–13–86
71′69′: Carlos Augusto on the scoresheet for Inter, making it 1–2. 1–2 · 2–13–86
71′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 71' Inter win: 55% at kick-off, 86% now
73′🟨 YELLOW · 71' Juan Miranda · Bologna
73′🟨 YELLOW · 72' Federico Bernardeschi · Bologna
78′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Bologna · On: Artem Dovbyk · Off: Nicolo Cambiaghi
78′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Bologna · On: Nikola Moro · Off: Tommaso Pobega
79′We said Inter at 55% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 1–2 · 1–9–90
80′🟨 YELLOW · 79' Carlos Augusto · Inter
80′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Inter · On: Hakan Çalhanoğlu · Off: Piotr Zieliński
80′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Inter · On: Henrikh Mkhitaryan · Off: Marcus Thuram
84′Inter ahead on 83′ through Ange-Yoan Bonny. 1–3. 1–3 · 0–0–100
84′⚽ GOAL · 83' Bologna 1–3 Inter · Ange-Yoan Bonny
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 84' Inter win: 55% at kick-off, over 99% now
85′We said Inter at 55% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 1–3 · 0–0–100
85′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.0 across ninety minutes. 1–3 · 0–0–100
90′1–3 at the end. Our 55% on Inter comes in. 1–3 · 0–0–100
FTFULL TIME Bologna 1–3 Inter
FTBologna 1–3 Inter · Inter win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Inter are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Bologna 22%, draw 23%, Inter 55%. Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 56%.

The AI’s read on Bologna v InterBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Bologna win22%

Draw23%

Inter win55%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 17:00

RoundMatchday 7

VenueStadio Renato Dall'Ara

RefereeDaniele Doveri

Line-ups

Bologna

3-4-2-1

Inter

3-5-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Bologna

Inter

6Days since last match4

Last match: 11 Oct · the Italian Serie A

Last match: 13 Oct · UEFA Champions League

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

In the news

from the pressAll ›

Serie A Liveblog: Venezia-Napoli, Bologna-Inter, Roma-GenoaFootball Italia · 17 Oct 13:03 · Napoli, Bologna, Inter, AS Roma, Genoa Serie A | Bologna vs. Inter: Probable line-ups and where to watch on TVFootball Italia · 17 Oct 10:00 · Bologna, Inter Inter add Pavard to growing injury list along with Lautaro, Stones and JonesFootball Italia · 16 Oct 15:36 · Inter Chivu: Inter coach reveals Lautaro’s return timeline, takes blame for Brugge lossFootball Italia · 16 Oct 14:39 · Inter

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Bologna

3-4-2-1

1 L. Skorupski

36 M. Darmian

16 N. Casale

3 A. Theate

20 N. Zortea

19 L. Ferguson

4 T. Pobega

33 J. Miranda

10 F. Bernardeschi

28 N. Cambiaghi

91 R. Piccoli

Coach · Raffaele Palladino

Substitutes

25 · M. Pessina

72 · U. Happonen

29 · L. De Silvestri

14 · T. Heggem

41 · M. Vitik

5 · E. Fauske Helland

23 · R. Alhassane

6 · N. Moro

17 · O. El Azzouzi

8 · M. Amondarain

18 · M. Libra

9 · A. Dovbyk

21 · J. Odgaard

11 · S. Mbangula

22 · J. Enem

Inter

3-5-2

1 J. Martinez

31 Y. Bisseck

25 M. Akanji

95 A. Bastoni

11 Luis Henrique

23 N. Barella

7 P. Zielinski

8 P. Sucic

32 F. Dimarco

9 M. Thuram

94 F. Esposito

Coach · Cristian Chivu

Substitutes

49 · I. Provedel

12 · R. Di Gennaro

46 · L. Bovio

99 · D. Spence

22 · H. Mkhitaryan

17 · A. Diouf

5 · A. Stankovic

20 · H. Calhanoglu

30 · Carlos Augusto

48 · M. Mosconi

14 · A. Bonny

Our number · inter winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

55% The market61%

Us55%

~~Market~~61%

We make Inter a 55% chance to win. The market has them at 61%. We are 6 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–1.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Bologna v Inter~~1.09 – 1.87

~~Form · Serie A this season · since 22 Aug~~W1 D2 L3 · W5 D1 L0

~~Table places · points 5 v 16~~14 v 1

~~The market · Inter win~~61% · ours 55%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Inter win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 58% to 61% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Bologna win	22%	16%	+6
Draw	23%	23%	0
Inter win	55%	61%	−6
Over 2.5 goals	57%	59%	−2
Both teams to score	56%	56%	0
Over 1.5 goals	80%	80%	0
Over 3.5 goals	34%	38%	−4
Bologna or draw	45%	39%	+6
Bologna clean sheet	16%	–	–
Inter clean sheet	34%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.8%

0123450 5.6 9.4 9.0 5.6 2.7 1 5.4 10.8 9.7 6.0 2.9 2 3.1 5.7 5.3 3.3 3 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Bologna down, Inter across0–5 goals a side shown (98.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,962 Serie A matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Serie A matches have gone over 2.5 in 57.4% of games this season, across 61 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 5 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Bologna at home: 1.00 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Inter away: 2.50 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.09 goals for Bologna, 1.87 for Inter. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~BOL 3–3 INT · INT 3–1 BOL · BOL 1–1 INT · BOL 1–0 INT

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Serie A this season · since 22 Aug

BOLOGNA

LLDLDW0–1 · 0–1 · 2–2 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 2–1

INTER

WWWWDW4–1 · 1–0 · 3–2 · 5–3 · 2–2 · 3–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Inter	6	+10	16
2	Lazio	6	+7	16
3	AS Roma	6	+11	14
4	Frosinone	7	+4	13
5	Cagliari	6	+3	13
6	AC Milan	6	+6	12
7	Juventus	6	+4	11
8	Como	6	+3	11
9	Napoli	6	+4	10
10	Atalanta	6	0	9
11	Sassuolo	7	−2	8
12	Torino	6	−2	7
13	Lecce	6	−6	6
14	Bologna	6	−2	5
15	Udinese	6	−4	4
16	Monza	6	−6	4
17	Genoa	6	−6	4
18	Parma	6	−6	4
19	Fiorentina	6	−7	4
20	Venezia	6	−11	0