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Atalanta v Venezia

Atalanta

3–1Full time

Venezia

Serie A · MON 12 OCT · New Balance Arena

Full timeGraded 12 Oct 20:06

Atalanta 3–1 Venezia ATALANTA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Atalanta win~~66%

~~The market said~~61%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.172

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.230

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 57 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Atalanta win at 66%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Atalanta 66% before kick-off, 67% now. 0–0 · 67–20–13
1′KICK-OFF Atalanta v Venezia
3′Atalanta ahead on 4′ through Franck Kessié. 0–0. 0–0 · 66–20–13
3′⚽ GOAL · 4' Atalanta 0–0 Venezia · Franck Kessié
4′We said Atalanta at 66% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 86%. 1–0 · 86–10–4
4′⚽ GOAL · 4' Atalanta 1–0 Venezia · Franck Kessié
4′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 4' Atalanta win: 66% at kick-off, 86% now
5′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 5' Atalanta win: 66% at kick-off, 86% now
5′⚽ GOAL · 6' Atalanta 1–0 Venezia · Nikola Krstović
7′Nikola Krstović scores for Atalanta on 6′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 96–3–1
7′We said Atalanta at 66% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 96%. 2–0 · 96–3–1
7′⚽ GOAL · 7' Atalanta 2–0 Venezia · Nikola Krstović
7′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 7' Atalanta win: 66% at kick-off, 96% now
7′SUBSTITUTION · 8' Venezia · On: Richie Sagrado · Off: Thierry Correia
8′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 8' Atalanta win: 66% at kick-off, 96% now
9′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 9' Atalanta win: 66% at kick-off, 96% now
10′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 10' Atalanta win: 66% at kick-off, 96% now
11′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 11' Atalanta win: 66% at kick-off, 96% now
12′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 12' Atalanta win: 66% at kick-off, 96% now
13′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 13' Atalanta win: 66% at kick-off, 96% now
14′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 14' Atalanta win: 66% at kick-off, 96% now
15′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 15' Atalanta win: 66% at kick-off, 96% now
16′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 16' Atalanta win: 66% at kick-off, 96% now
17′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 17' Atalanta win: 66% at kick-off, 96% now
18′🟨 YELLOW · 18' Matias Moreno · Venezia
18′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 18' Atalanta win: 66% at kick-off, 96% now
19′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 19' Atalanta win: 66% at kick-off, 96% now
20′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 20' Atalanta win: 66% at kick-off, 96% now
21′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 21' Atalanta win: 66% at kick-off, 96% now
21′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 21' Atalanta win: 66% at kick-off, 97% now
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 22' Atalanta win: 66% at kick-off, 97% now
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 23' Atalanta win: 66% at kick-off, 97% now
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 24' Atalanta win: 66% at kick-off, 97% now
25′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 25' Atalanta win: 66% at kick-off, 97% now
26′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 26' Atalanta win: 66% at kick-off, 97% now
27′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 27' Atalanta win: 66% at kick-off, 97% now
28′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 28' Atalanta win: 66% at kick-off, 97% now
29′Nikola Krstović scores for Atalanta on 6′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 97–3–1
29′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 29' Atalanta win: 66% at kick-off, 97% now
30′30′ and it is 3–0: Nikola Krstović on the scoresheet for Atalanta. 3–0 · 99–0–0
30′⚽ GOAL · 30' Atalanta 3–0 Venezia · Nikola Krstović
31′We said Atalanta at 66% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 99%. 3–0 · 99–0–0
32′We said Atalanta at 66% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 100%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
33′3 goals already, more than the 2.9 we expected for the whole match. 3–0 · 100–0–0
34′30′ and it is 3–0: Nikola Krstović on the scoresheet for Atalanta. 3–0 · 100–0–0
36′We said Atalanta at 66% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 100%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
36′Venezia ahead on 37′ through Antoine Hainaut. 3–1. 3–1 · 97–3–0
36′⚽ GOAL · 36' Atalanta 3–1 Venezia · Nikola Krstović
36′⚽ GOAL · 37' Atalanta 3–1 Venezia · Antoine Hainaut
37′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.9 across ninety minutes. 3–1 · 97–2–0
42′🟨 YELLOW · 42' Juan Jesus · Venezia
45′SECOND HALF Atalanta 3–1 Venezia
53′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 53' Atalanta win: 66% at kick-off, 97% now
54′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 54' Atalanta win: 66% at kick-off, 97% now
55′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 55' Atalanta win: 66% at kick-off, 97% now
56′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 56' Atalanta win: 66% at kick-off, 97% now
57′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 57' Atalanta win: 66% at kick-off, 97% now
58′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 58' Atalanta win: 66% at kick-off, 97% now
59′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Atalanta · On: Lazar Samardzic · Off: Charles De Ketelaere
66′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Atalanta · On: Sead Kolašinac · Off: Giorgio Scalvini
66′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Atalanta · On: Lorenzo Bernasconi · Off: Raoul Bellanova
76′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Atalanta · On: Nicola Zalewski · Off: Jonathan Rowe
76′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Atalanta · On: Gianluca Gaetano · Off: Franck Kessié
81′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Venezia · On: Thorir Johann Helgason · Off: Toma Bašić
82′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Venezia · On: Joël Schingtienne · Off: Matias Moreno
82′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Venezia · On: Lion Lauberbach · Off: Akor Adams
85′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Venezia · On: Albion Rrahmani · Off: Simon Sohm
87′🟨 YELLOW · 88' Elif Elmas · Atalanta
88′🟥 RED CARD · 88' Atalanta
88′🟥 RED CARD · 89' Elif Elmas · Atalanta
FTFULL TIME Atalanta 3–1 Venezia
FTAtalanta 3–1 Venezia · Atalanta win: right · Over 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with a pass — 7 days or 30 days.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published 12 Oct 17:18 · locked at kick-off

Atalanta win66%

Draw20%

Venezia win13%

Kick-offMON 12 OCT · 17:30

VenueNew Balance Arena

RefereeParide Tremolada

Line-ups

Atalanta

4-2-3-1

Venezia

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Atalanta

Venezia

22Days since last match23

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	Atalanta	5	−2	6
20	Venezia	5	−9	0

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

In the news

from the pressAll ›

Serie A: Atalanta vs. Venezia official line-ups and live updatesFootball Italia · 47 min ago · Atalanta, Venezia

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Atalanta

4-2-3-1

29 M. Carnesecchi

16 R. Bellanova

31 T. Kristensen

42 G. Scalvini

77 D. Zappacosta

19 F. Kessie

13 Ederson

99 E. Elmas

17 C. De Ketelaere

11 J. Rowe

90 N. Krstovic

Coach · Maurizio Sarri

Substitutes

57 · M. Sportiello

51 · M. Sonzogni

23 · S. Kolasinac

40 · R. Obric

70 · G. Gaetano

47 · L. Bernasconi

41 · J. Idele

8 · M. Pasalic

59 · N. Zalewski

10 · L. Samardzic

18 · G. Raspadori

9 · G. Scamacca

Venezia

Formation not confirmed

1 F. Stankovic

25 R. Halhal

15 Juan Jesus

2 M. Moreno

18 A. Hainaut

71 K. Perez

19 S. Sohm

26 T. Basic

14 T. Correia

10 J. Yeboah

45 A. Adams

Coach · –

Substitutes

96 · L. Montipo

5 · R. Haps

16 · R. Mohammed

20 · R. Sagrado

3 · J. Schingtienne

95 · A. Gomes

21 · T. J. Helgason

30 · M. Dagasso

55 · S. Panada

8 · L. Fanne

36 · L. Berardi

29 · L. Lauberbach

56 · K. Lisman

77 · T. Fernandez

7 · A. Rrahmani

Our number · atalanta winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 12 Oct 17:18 · locked at kick-off

66% The market61%

Us66%

~~Market~~61%

We make Atalanta a 66% chance to win. The market has them at 61%. We are 6 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.1–0.8.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · atalanta win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 60% to 61% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Atalanta win	66%	61%	+6
Draw	20%	22%	−2
Venezia win	13%	17%	−4
Over 2.5 goals	55%	61%	−6
Both teams to score	48%	59%	−10
Over 1.5 goals	78%	81%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	33%	41%	−8
Atalanta or draw	87%	83%	+4
Atalanta clean sheet	45%	–	–
Venezia clean sheet	13%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 11.9%

0123450 6.0 4.3 1 11.3 9.5 3.8 2 11.9 9.4 3.8 3 8.3 6.5 2.6 4 4.5 3.5 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Atalanta down, Venezia across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,959 Serie A matches up to 12 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Serie A matches have gone over 2.5 in 55.2% of games this season, across 58 played.

Head to head

4 previous meetings, 2.50 goals a meeting; 2 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Atalanta at home: 0.67 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Venezia away: 1.00 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.09 goals for Atalanta, 0.81 for Venezia. Most likely score 2–0.

Line-ups

Confirmed 12 Oct 17:01. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 4

~~Both scored~~1 of 4

~~Last meetings~~ATA 0–0 VEN · VEN 0–2 ATA · VEN 1–3 ATA · ATA 4–0 VEN

Form · last six in Serie A

ATALANTA

DWWLLL1–1 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 0–2

VENEZIA

LLLLLL2–3 · 0–2 · 0–2 · 2–3 · 2–4 · 0–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Inter	6	+10	16
2	Lazio	6	+7	16
3	AS Roma	6	+11	14
4	Cagliari	6	+3	13
5	AC Milan	6	+6	12
6	Juventus	6	+4	11
7	Como	6	+3	11
8	Napoli	6	+4	10
9	Frosinone	6	+2	10
10	Sassuolo	6	0	8
11	Atalanta	5	−2	6
12	Lecce	6	−6	6
13	Bologna	6	−2	5
14	Udinese	5	−3	4
15	Torino	5	−3	4
16	Monza	6	−6	4
17	Genoa	6	−6	4
18	Parma	6	−6	4
19	Fiorentina	6	−7	4
20	Venezia	5	−9	0