Atalanta v Frosinone
AtalantaFrosinoneSerie A · SUN 25 OCT · New Balance Arena
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
Atalanta are favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Atalanta 59%, draw 21%, Frosinone 20%. Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 57%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off
Atalanta win59%Frosinone win20%Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 14:00
RoundMatchday 8
VenueNew Balance Arena
RefereeLivio Marinelli
Match timeline
All events
AtalantaMINFrosinoneEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Atalanta
Frosinone
Last match: 22 Oct · UEFA Europa Conference League
Last match: 16 Oct · the Italian Serie A
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.
The game in numbers
Match statistics
League table
2026/27Positions before kick-off
| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Frosinone | 7 | +4 | 13 |
| 11 | Atalanta | 7 | −1 | 9 |
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
We make Atalanta a 59% chance to win. The market has them at 52%. We are 7 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.1–1.1.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 52% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atalanta win | 59% | 52% | +7 |
| Draw | 21% | 23% | −2 |
| Frosinone win | 20% | 25% | −5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 67% | −7 |
| Both teams to score | 57% | 67% | −10 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 82% | 85% | −3 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38% | 47% | −9 |
| Atalanta or draw | 80% | 75% | +5 |
| Atalanta clean sheet | 34% | – | – |
| Frosinone clean sheet | 13% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
2 meetings since 2021/22Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · last six in Serie A this season · since 29 Aug
ATALANTA
FROSINONE
The table
2026/27| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Lazio | 8 | +11 | 22 |
| 2 |  Inter | 7 | +12 | 19 |
| 3 |  AS Roma | 8 | +13 | 18 |
| 4 |  Como | 8 | +7 | 17 |
| 5 |  AC Milan | 7 | +7 | 15 |
| 6 | Frosinone | 7 | +4 | 13 |
| 7 |  Torino | 8 | +2 | 13 |
| 8 |  Cagliari | 8 | −3 | 13 |
| 9 |  Napoli | 8 | +3 | 11 |
| 10 |  Juventus | 7 | +1 | 11 |
| 11 | Atalanta | 7 | −1 | 9 |
| 12 |  Lecce | 7 | −3 | 9 |
| 13 |  Bologna | 8 | −2 | 8 |
| 14 |  Sassuolo | 8 | −4 | 8 |
| 15 |  Monza | 8 | −3 | 7 |
| 16 |  Udinese | 7 | −7 | 4 |
| 17 |  Genoa | 7 | −8 | 4 |
| 18 |  Fiorentina | 7 | −9 | 4 |
| 19 |  Parma | 8 | −10 | 4 |
| 20 |  Venezia | 7 | −10 | 3 |
The competition's standings before kick-off.