AS Roma v Genoa prediction · Serie A

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 22:31

AS Roma 2–0 Genoa AS ROMA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said AS Roma win~~60%

~~The market said~~61%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.239

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.235

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 15 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said AS Roma win at 60%.
1′KICK-OFF AS Roma v Genoa
2′Much as we predicted: AS Roma was 60% before kick-off and our model makes it 60% now. 0–0 · 60–24–16
35′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 35' AS Roma win: 60% at kick-off, 50% now
39′We said AS Roma at 60%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 48%. 0–0 · 48–36–16
44′🟨 YELLOW · 43' Matias Soule · AS Roma
45′SECOND HALF AS Roma 0–0 Genoa
46′HALF-TIME AS Roma 0–0 Genoa
48′We said AS Roma at 60%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 44%. 0–0 · 44–41–15
50′We published AS Roma at 60%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–0 · 85–13–2
50′⚽ GOAL · 50' AS Roma 1–0 Genoa
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 50' AS Roma win: 60% at kick-off, 85% now
51′50′: Santiago Thomas Castro on the scoresheet for AS Roma, making it 1–0. 1–0 · 85–13–2
53′🟨 YELLOW · 51' Johan Vásquez · Genoa
64′SUBSTITUTION · 63' AS Roma · On: Lorenzo Pellegrini · Off: Rodrigo Mora
64′SUBSTITUTION · 63' AS Roma · On: Mario Hermoso · Off: Konstantinos Koulierakis
66′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Genoa · On: Vítor Manuel Carvalho Oliveira · Off: Stephan El Shaarawy
66′🟨 YELLOW · 65' Leo Østigård · Genoa
68′We published AS Roma at 60%. Our model now makes it 99%. 2–0 · 99–1–0
68′⚽ GOAL · 68' AS Roma 2–0 Genoa
68′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 68' AS Roma win: 60% at kick-off, 99% now
FTFULL TIME AS Roma 2–0 Genoa
FTAS Roma 2–0 Genoa · AS Roma win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

AS Roma are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: AS Roma 60%, draw 24%, Genoa 16%. Over 2.5 goals 46%, both teams to score 44%.

The AI’s read on AS Roma v GenoaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

AS Roma win60%

Draw24%

Genoa win16%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 19:45

RoundMatchday 7

VenueStadio Olimpico

RefereeRosario Abisso

Line-ups

AS Roma

3-4-2-1

Genoa

3-4-2-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

AS Roma

Genoa

3Days since last match7

Last match: 14 Oct · UEFA Champions League

Last match: 10 Oct · the Italian Serie A

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	AS Roma	6	+11	14
17	Genoa	6	−6	4

In the news

from the pressAll ›

Serie A line-ups: Roma vs. GenoaFootball Italia · 17 Oct 18:48 · AS Roma, Genoa Roma without 5 against Genoa as Gasperini calls up Primavera playersFootball Italia · 17 Oct 13:41 · AS Roma, Genoa Serie A Liveblog: Venezia-Napoli, Bologna-Inter, Roma-GenoaFootball Italia · 17 Oct 13:03 · Napoli, Inter, AS Roma, Genoa Serie A | Roma vs. Genoa: Probable line-ups and where to watch on TVFootball Italia · 17 Oct 10:30 · AS Roma, Genoa

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

AS Roma

3-4-2-1

95 P. Gollini

26 L. Balerdi

5 E. Ndicka

3 K. Koulierakis

77 E. Lulli

15 M. De Roon

61 N. Pisilli

2 D. Rensch

18 M. Soule

86 R. Mora

9 S. Castro

Coach · Piero Gasperini Gian

Substitutes

32 · D. S. Vasquez Llach

70 · G. De Marzi

22 · M. Hermoso

20 · N. Molina

23 · G. Mancini

87 · D. Ghilardi

43 · Wesley Franca

63 · A. Di Nunzio

7 · L. Pellegrini

68 · A. Arena

72 · L. Paratici

78 · M. Camara

Genoa

3-4-2-1

1 J. Bijlow

27 A. Marcandalli

5 L. Ostigard

22 J. Vasquez

77 M. E. Ellertsson

71 S. Wiafe

32 M. Frendrup

31 D. Puczka

10 Junior Messias

92 S. El Shaarawy

18 M. Osmajic

Coach · Daniele De Rossi

Substitutes

39 · D. Sommariva

99 · F. Stolz

16 · C. Drameh

85 · M. Vaz

14 · L. Klisys

20 · S. Sabelli

2 · M. Mitaj

34 · S. Otoa

25 · H. J. Traore

8 · T. Baldanzi

4 · Amorim

21 · J. Robinho

9 · Vitinha

Our number · as roma winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 12 Oct 03:58 · locked at kick-off

60% The market61%

Us60%

~~Market~~61%

We make AS Roma a 60% chance to win. The market has them at 61%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.8–0.8.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · AS Roma v Genoa~~1.75 – 0.77

~~Form · Serie A this season · since 22 Aug~~W4 D2 L0 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 14 v 4~~3 v 17

~~The market · AS Roma win~~61% · ours 60%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · AS Roma win The market, margin stripped

Published at 61%, 60% now. The market has gone from 71% to 61% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
AS Roma win	60%	61%	−1
Draw	24%	24%	0
Genoa win	16%	16%	0
Over 2.5 goals	46%	50%	−4
Both teams to score	44%	48%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	72%	73%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	25%	29%	−4
AS Roma or draw	84%	84%	0
AS Roma clean sheet	47%	–	–
Genoa clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.8%

0123450 8.5 5.9 2.4 1 13.8 11.0 4.1 2 12.3 9.3 3.6 3 7.2 5.4 2.1 4 3.2 2.4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+AS Roma down, Genoa across0–5 goals a side shown (99.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,962 Serie A matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Serie A matches have gone over 2.5 in 57.4% of games this season, across 61 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 9 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.44 goals a meeting; 4 of 9 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

AS Roma at home: 2.50 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Genoa away: 0.50 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.75 goals for AS Roma, 0.77 for Genoa. Most likely score 1–0.

Line-ups

Confirmed 17 Oct 19:15. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

9 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.44

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 9

~~Both scored~~5 of 9

~~Last meetings~~GEN 2–1 ASR · ASR 3–1 GEN · ASR 3–1 GEN · GEN 1–1 ASR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Serie A this season · since 22 Aug

AS ROMA

WWWWDD4–0 · 4–0 · 2–1 · 2–0 · 2–2 · 0–0

GENOA

LLLDLW0–2 · 0–1 · 1–4 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Inter	6	+10	16
2	Lazio	6	+7	16
3	AS Roma	6	+11	14
4	Frosinone	7	+4	13
5	Cagliari	6	+3	13
6	AC Milan	6	+6	12
7	Juventus	6	+4	11
8	Como	6	+3	11
9	Napoli	7	+3	10
10	Atalanta	6	0	9
11	Sassuolo	7	−2	8
12	Torino	6	−2	7
13	Lecce	6	−6	6
14	Bologna	6	−2	5
15	Udinese	6	−4	4
16	Monza	6	−6	4
17	Genoa	6	−6	4
18	Parma	6	−6	4
19	Fiorentina	6	−7	4
20	Venezia	7	−10	3