AC Milan v Inter prediction · Serie A

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

AC MilanDrawInter

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 19:45

Before kick-off · Match result · Inter 47%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Inter are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: AC Milan 29%, draw 24%, Inter 47%. Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 60%.

The AI’s read on AC Milan v InterBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

AC Milan win29%

Draw24%

Inter win47%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 19:45

RoundMatchday 10

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

AC Milan

Inter

9Days since last match10

Last match: 22 Oct · UEFA Europa League

Last match: 21 Oct · UEFA Champions League

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Inter	7	+12	19
5	AC Milan	7	+7	15

In the news

from the pressAll ›

Allegri accusation: ‘They put Champions League in Roma’s pocket, I paid for it at Milan’Football Italia · 24 Oct 20:24 · AS Roma, AC Milan Milan among Serie A clubs eyeing Chiesa as Liverpool open to January exitFootball Italia · 24 Oct 16:01 · AC Milan, Liverpool Inter’s Dimarco faces three-way battle after MVP season: Carlos Augusto, Calafiori and a new contractFootball Italia · 24 Oct 11:56 · Inter Spence still unconvincing as Inter await English trio reunionFootball Italia · 23 Oct 15:11 · Inter

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · inter winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

47% The market–

Us47%

We make Inter a 47% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–1.8, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · AC Milan v Inter~~1.31 – 1.75

~~Form · last six in Serie A this season · since 28 Aug~~W3 D3 L0 · W5 D1 L0

~~Table places · points 15 v 19~~5 v 2

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
AC Milan win	29%	–	–
Draw	24%	–	–
Inter win	47%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	59%	–	–
Both teams to score	60%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	81%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	37%	–	–
AC Milan or draw	53%	–	–
AC Milan clean sheet	18%	–	–
Inter clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.9%

0123450 5.0 8.0 7.1 4.2 1 5.9 10.9 9.2 5.4 2.4 2 4.1 7.0 6.1 3.5 3 3.1 2.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+AC Milan down, Inter across0–5 goals a side shown (98.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,976 Serie A matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Serie A matches have gone over 2.5 in 60.0% of games this season, across 75 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.70 goals a meeting; 5 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

AC Milan at home: 1.83 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Inter away: 2.33 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.31 goals for AC Milan, 1.75 for Inter. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.70

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~ACM 1–0 INT · INT 0–1 ACM · INT 0–3 ACM · ACM 1–1 INT

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Serie A this season · since 28 Aug

AC MILAN

WDDWDW2–0 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 3–0 · 1–1 · 3–2

INTER

WWWDWW1–0 · 3–2 · 5–3 · 2–2 · 3–0 · 3–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Lazio	8	+11	22
2	Inter	7	+12	19
3	AS Roma	8	+13	18
4	Como	8	+7	17
5	AC Milan	7	+7	15
6	Frosinone	7	+4	13
7	Torino	8	+2	13
8	Cagliari	8	−3	13
9	Napoli	8	+3	11
10	Juventus	7	+1	11
11	Atalanta	7	−1	9
12	Lecce	7	−3	9
13	Bologna	8	−2	8
14	Sassuolo	8	−4	8
15	Monza	8	−3	7
16	Udinese	7	−7	4
17	Genoa	7	−8	4
18	Fiorentina	7	−9	4
19	Parma	8	−10	4
20	Venezia	7	−10	3