AC Milan v Bologna
AC MilanBolognaSerie A · WED 28 OCT
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
AC Milan are favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: AC Milan 49%, draw 26%, Bologna 26%. Over 2.5 goals 49%, both teams to score 52%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off
AC Milan win49%Bologna win26%Kick-offWED 28 OCT · 17:30
RoundMatchday 9
Match timeline
All events
AC MilanMINBolognaEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
AC Milan
Bologna
Last match: 22 Oct · UEFA Europa League
Last match: 24 Oct · the Italian Serie A
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.
The game in numbers
Match statistics
League table
2026/27Positions before kick-off
| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | AC Milan | 7 | +7 | 15 |
| 13 | Bologna | 8 | −2 | 8 |
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
We make AC Milan a 49% chance to win. The market has them at 59%. We are 10 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.1.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 59% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| AC Milan win | 49% | 59% | −10 |
| Draw | 26% | 24% | +2 |
| Bologna win | 26% | 18% | +8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 52% | −3 |
| Both teams to score | 52% | 51% | +1 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74% | 75% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27% | 31% | −4 |
| AC Milan or draw | 74% | 82% | −8 |
| AC Milan clean sheet | 35% | – | – |
| Bologna clean sheet | 21% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
Last 10 meetingsEvery competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · last six in Serie A this season · since 28 Aug
AC MILAN
BOLOGNA
The table
2026/27| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Lazio | 8 | +11 | 22 |
| 2 |  Inter | 7 | +12 | 19 |
| 3 |  AS Roma | 8 | +13 | 18 |
| 4 |  Como | 8 | +7 | 17 |
| 5 | AC Milan | 7 | +7 | 15 |
| 6 |  Frosinone | 7 | +4 | 13 |
| 7 |  Torino | 8 | +2 | 13 |
| 8 |  Cagliari | 8 | −3 | 13 |
| 9 |  Napoli | 8 | +3 | 11 |
| 10 |  Juventus | 7 | +1 | 11 |
| 11 |  Atalanta | 7 | −1 | 9 |
| 12 |  Lecce | 7 | −3 | 9 |
| 13 | Bologna | 8 | −2 | 8 |
| 14 |  Sassuolo | 8 | −4 | 8 |
| 15 |  Monza | 8 | −3 | 7 |
| 16 |  Udinese | 7 | −7 | 4 |
| 17 |  Genoa | 7 | −8 | 4 |
| 18 |  Fiorentina | 7 | −9 | 4 |
| 19 |  Parma | 8 | −10 | 4 |
| 20 |  Venezia | 7 | −10 | 3 |
The competition's standings before kick-off.