AC Milan v Atalanta prediction · Serie A

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 19:31

AC Milan 3–2 Atalanta AC MILAN WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said AC Milan win~~41%

~~The market said~~56%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.518

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.296

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay17 notes · 25 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said AC Milan win at 41%.
2′Little has changed for our model: AC Milan 41% before kick-off, 41% now. 0–0 · 41–27–32
2′KICK-OFF AC Milan v Atalanta
14′A goal for AC Milan on 13′. 0–0 · 40–29–32
18′GOAL DISALLOWED · 13' Christian Pulisic · AC Milan
20′SUBSTITUTION · 20' Atalanta · On: Relja Obric · Off: Sead Kolašinac
24′We said AC Milan at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 69%. 1–0 · 69–20–11
24′⚽ GOAL · 24' AC Milan 1–0 Atalanta
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 24' AC Milan win: 41% at kick-off, 69% now
26′Gonçalo Ramos scores for AC Milan on 24′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 70–20–11
26′We said AC Milan at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 70%. 1–0 · 70–20–11
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.7 we expected. 1–0 · 70–20–10
34′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 34' AC Milan win: 41% at kick-off, 71% now
42′🟨 YELLOW · 41' Adrien Rabiot · AC Milan
44′43′: Adrien Rabiot on the scoresheet for AC Milan, making it 2–0. 2–0 · 92–6–1
44′We said AC Milan at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 92%. 2–0 · 92–6–1
44′⚽ GOAL · 43' AC Milan 2–0 Atalanta · Adrien Rabiot
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 44' AC Milan win: 41% at kick-off, 92% now
54′SUBSTITUTION · 53' AC Milan · On: Omari Hutchinson · Off: Samuel Chukwueze
55′We said AC Milan at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 2–0 · 95–5–1
57′PENALTY MISSED · 57' Gonçalo Ramos · AC Milan
58′3 goals already, more than the 2.7 we expected for the whole match. 3–0 · 99–1–0
58′AC Milan ahead on 57′ through Mario Gila. 3–0. 3–0 · 99–1–0
58′⚽ GOAL · 58' AC Milan 3–0 Atalanta
60′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Atalanta · On: Gianluca Gaetano · Off: Mario Pašalić
60′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Atalanta · On: Nicola Zalewski · Off: Jonathan Rowe
63′We said AC Milan at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
67′Gianluca Gaetano scores for Atalanta on 66′ — 3–1. 3–1 · 97–3–0
67′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.7 across ninety minutes. 3–1 · 97–3–0
67′⚽ GOAL · 66' AC Milan 3–1 Atalanta · Gianluca Gaetano
69′🟨 YELLOW · 68' Éderson José dos Santos · Atalanta
76′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Atalanta · On: Gianluca Scamacca · Off: Lazar Samardzic
76′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Atalanta · On: Davide Zappacosta · Off: Lorenzo Bernasconi
76′SUBSTITUTION · 75' AC Milan · On: Ardon Jashari · Off: Christian Pulisic
76′SUBSTITUTION · 75' AC Milan · On: Pervis Estupinan · Off: Yunus Musah
76′SUBSTITUTION · 75' AC Milan · On: Ruben Loftus-Cheek · Off: Luka Modrić
78′🟨 YELLOW · 78' Relja Obric · Atalanta
82′81′: Nikola Krstović on the scoresheet for Atalanta, making it 3–2. 3–2 · 91–9–1
82′5 goals already, more than the 2.7 we expected for the whole match. 3–2 · 91–9–1
82′⚽ GOAL · 81' AC Milan 3–2 Atalanta · Nikola Krstović
85′SUBSTITUTION · 84' AC Milan · On: Fikayo Tomori · Off: Mario Gila
90′3–2 at the end. Our 41% on AC Milan comes in. 3–2 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME AC Milan 3–2 Atalanta
FTAC Milan 3–2 Atalanta · AC Milan win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

AC Milan are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: AC Milan 41%, draw 26%, Atalanta 32%. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 55%.

The AI’s read on AC Milan v AtalantaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

AC Milan win41%

Draw26%

Atalanta win32%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 17:00

RoundMatchday 7

VenueSan Siro/Giuseppe Meazza

RefereeDaniele Chiffi

Line-ups

AC Milan

3-4-3

Atalanta

4-3-3

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

AC Milan

Atalanta

3Days since last match3

Last match: 15 Oct · UEFA Europa League

Last match: 15 Oct · UEFA Europa Conference League

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	AC Milan	6	+6	12
10	Atalanta	6	0	9

In the news

from the pressAll ›

Serie A official line-ups: Milan vs. AtalantaFootball Italia · 18 Oct 15:57 · AC Milan, Atalanta Serie A Liveblog: Fiorentina-Como, Milan-Atalanta, Juventus-LazioFootball Italia · 18 Oct 13:04 · Como, AC Milan, Atalanta, Juventus, Lazio Serie A: Milan vs. Atalanta – Probable line-ups and where to watch on TVFootball Italia · 18 Oct 12:14 · AC Milan, Atalanta Amorim to skip pre-match press conferences for Milan games against Atalanta and UdineseFootball Italia · 17 Oct 12:15 · AC Milan, Atalanta

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

AC Milan

3-4-3

16 M. Maignan

34 M. Gila

5 K. De Winter

31 S. Pavlovic

21 S. Chukwueze

80 Y. Musah

14 L. Modric

22 D. Moreira

12 A. Rabiot

9 G. Ramos

11 C. Pulisic

Coach · Ruben Amorim

Substitutes

41 · L. P. Bouyer

96 · L. Torriani

23 · F. Tomori

2 · P. Estupinan

33 · D. Bartesaghi

35 · V. Vladimirov

13 · S. Diawara

8 · R. Loftus-Cheek

42 · F. Terracciano

30 · A. Jashari

28 · C. Comotto

70 · A. Cisse

73 · F. Camarda

20 · O. Hutchinson

Atalanta

4-3-3

29 M. Carnesecchi

16 R. Bellanova

31 T. Kristensen

23 S. Kolasinac

47 L. Bernasconi

10 L. Samardzic

13 Ederson

8 M. Pasalic

17 C. De Ketelaere

90 N. Krstovic

11 J. Rowe

Coach · Maurizio Sarri

Substitutes

57 · M. Sportiello

51 · M. Sonzogni

77 · D. Zappacosta

40 · R. Obric

53 · M. Plaia

70 · G. Gaetano

41 · J. Idele

59 · N. Zalewski

45 · D. K. Pounga

9 · G. Scamacca

Our number · ac milan winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

41% The market56%

Us41%

~~Market~~56%

We make AC Milan a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 56%. We are 15 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · AC Milan v Atalanta~~1.45 – 1.26

~~Form · Serie A this season · since 23 Aug~~W3 D3 L0 · W3 D0 L3

~~Table places · points 12 v 9~~6 v 10

~~The market · AC Milan win~~56% · ours 41%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · AC Milan win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 51% to 56% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
AC Milan win	41%	56%	−15
Draw	26%	24%	+2
Atalanta win	32%	20%	+12
Over 2.5 goals	51%	59%	−8
Both teams to score	55%	58%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	75%	79%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	29%	38%	−9
AC Milan or draw	68%	80%	−12
AC Milan clean sheet	29%	–	–
Atalanta clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.4%

0123450 7.1 8.1 5.3 2.2 1 9.4 12.4 7.5 3.2 2 7.0 8.7 5.4 2.3 3 3.4 4.2 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+AC Milan down, Atalanta across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,965 Serie A matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Serie A matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.2% of games this season, across 64 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.70 goals a meeting; 4 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

AC Milan at home: 1.33 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Atalanta away: 1.33 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.45 goals for AC Milan, 1.26 for Atalanta. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.70

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 10

~~Both scored~~7 of 10

~~Last meetings~~ACM 2–3 ATA · ATA 1–1 ACM · ACM 0–1 ATA · ATA 2–1 ACM

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Serie A this season · since 23 Aug

AC MILAN

WWDDWD2–1 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 3–0 · 1–1

ATALANTA

WWLLLW2–1 · 1–0 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 0–2 · 3–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Inter	7	+12	19
2	AS Roma	7	+13	17
3	Lazio	6	+7	16
4	Frosinone	7	+4	13
5	Cagliari	6	+3	13
6	AC Milan	6	+6	12
7	Juventus	6	+4	11
8	Como	6	+3	11
9	Napoli	7	+3	10
10	Atalanta	6	0	9
11	Lecce	7	−3	9
12	Sassuolo	7	−2	8
13	Torino	6	−2	7
14	Bologna	7	−4	5
15	Monza	6	−6	4
16	Parma	6	−6	4
17	Udinese	7	−7	4
18	Fiorentina	6	−7	4
19	Genoa	7	−8	4
20	Venezia	7	−10	3