Ternana W v Lazio W prediction · Serie A Women

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 19:40

Ternana W 1–0 Lazio W LAZIO W WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Lazio W win~~51%

~~The market said~~42%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.859

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.749

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 27 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Lazio W win at 51%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Lazio W 51% before kick-off, 51% now. 0–0 · 26–23–51
1′KICK-OFF Ternana W v Lazio W
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Lazio W win: 51% at kick-off, 41% now
45′HALF-TIME Ternana W 0–0 Lazio W
46′SECOND HALF Ternana W 0–0 Lazio W
48′We said Lazio W at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 39%. 0–0 · 22–39–39
51′50′: C. Strode on the scoresheet for Ternana W, making it 1–0. 1–0 · 63–26–12
51′⚽ GOAL · 50' Ternana W 1–0 Lazio W · C. Strode
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 51' Lazio W win: 51% at kick-off, 12% now
51′THE CALL SWINGS · 51' Ternana W win is now our likeliest result at 63% (was Lazio W win 12%)
52′We said Lazio W at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 11%. 1–0 · 63–26–11
52′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 52' Lazio W win: 51% at kick-off, 11% now
58′We said Lazio W at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–0 · 66–25–9
58′🟨 YELLOW · 56' M. Massimino · Ternana W
61′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Lazio W · On: L. Freeman · Off: L. Consolini Corrected
61′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Lazio W · On: A. Longobardi · Off: M. Le Mouel
68′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Ternana W · On: S. Testa · Off: L. Pastrenge
71′We said Lazio W at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–0 · 75–21–4
72′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Lazio W · On: M. Sciabica · Off: A. Castiello
72′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Lazio W · On: E. Martin · Off: J. Roddar
72′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Ternana W · On: A. Gomes · Off: C. Strode
73′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Ternana W · On: C. Ciccotti · Off: A. Regazzoli
73′🟨 YELLOW · 73' C. Zannini · Lazio W
78′🟨 YELLOW · 77' S. Breitner · Ternana W
79′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Lazio W · On: A. Holmstrom · Off: C. Zannini
80′🟨 YELLOW · 79' A. Gomes · Ternana W
80′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 80' Lazio W win: 51% at kick-off, 1% now
81′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Ternana W · On: Yang Lina · Off: C. Martins
82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Ternana W · On: C. Labate · Off: S. Breitner
84′🟨 YELLOW · 84' M. Zanoli · Lazio W
90′🟨 YELLOW · 88' M. Petrara · Ternana W
90′🟨 YELLOW · 89' G. Grassadonia · Lazio W
FTFULL TIME Ternana W 1–0 Lazio W
FTTernana W 1–0 Lazio W · Lazio W win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 0–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Lazio W are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Ternana W 26%, draw 23%, Lazio W 51%. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 54%.

The AI’s read on Ternana W v Lazio WBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Ternana W win26%

Draw23%

Lazio W win51%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 17:00

RoundMatchday 3

VenueStadio Libero Liberati

RefereeM. Cavacini

Line-ups

Ternana W

Lazio W

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Ternana W

Lazio W

14Days since last match14

Last match: 3 Oct · Serie A Women

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Ternana W	2	0	3
11	Lazio W	2	−2	1

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Ternana W

Formation not confirmed

12 G. Ciccioli

29 C. Martins

4 E. Pacioni

24 M. Massimino

14 M. Toniolo

33 S. Breitner

8 L. Pastrenge

21 M. Petrara

23 A. Regazzoli

35 R. Ventriglia

15 C. Strode

Coach · –

Substitutes

1 · K. Steen

17 · C. Labate

19 · F. Quazzico

5 · L. Peruzzo

27 · M. Cecchini

16 · C. Ciccotti

28 · Yang Lina

22 · S. Testa

7 · A. Gomes

10 · P. Lazaro

Lazio W

Formation not confirmed

1 S. Cetinja

27 M. Monnecchi

4 L. Consolini

7 M. Connolly

22 C. Zannini

16 A. Castiello

5 J. Roddar

25 E. Goldoni

14 M. Zanoli

15 M. Le Mouel

99 N. Visentin

Coach · Gianluca Grassadonia

Substitutes

12 · A. Mukasa

20 · L. Freeman

2 · A. Holmstrom

6 · C. Masu

19 · M. Sciabica

8 · E. Martin

92 · N. Ngueleu

17 · A. Longobardi

Our number · lazio w winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

51% The market42%

Us51%

~~Market~~42%

We make Lazio W a 51% chance to win. The market has them at 42%. We are 9 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–1.7.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Ternana W v Lazio W~~1.13 – 1.71

~~Form · Serie A Women this season · since 26 Sept~~W1 D0 L1 · W0 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 3 v 1~~6 v 11

~~The market · Lazio W win~~42% · ours 51%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Lazio W win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 42% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Ternana W win	26%	30%	−4
Draw	23%	29%	−6
Lazio W win	51%	42%	+9
Over 2.5 goals	54%	46%	+8
Both teams to score	54%	51%	+3
Over 1.5 goals	76%	70%	+6
Over 3.5 goals	32%	26%	+6
Ternana W or draw	49%	58%	−9
Ternana W clean sheet	19%	–	–
Lazio W clean sheet	33%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 10.6%

0123450 5.6 10.6 8.5 4.9 2.2 1 7.3 10.5 9.2 5.3 2.3 2 3.8 6.2 5.2 2.9 3 2.4 2.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Ternana W down, Lazio W across0–5 goals a side shown (98.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 668 Serie A Women matches up to 4 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Serie A Women matches have gone over 2.5 in 57.2% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2023/24 in every competition we cover, 1.50 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Ternana W at home: 1.67 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Lazio W away: 1.33 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.13 goals for Ternana W, 1.71 for Lazio W. Most likely score 0–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2023/24

~~Goals a meeting~~1.50

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~0 of 2

~~Last meetings~~LAZ 2–0 TER · TER 1–0 LAZ

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Serie A Women this season · since 26 Sept

TERNANA W

LW1–2 · 2–1

LAZIO W

DL0–0 · 1–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Roma W	2	+4	6
2	Como 1907 W	2	+4	6
3	Inter Milano W	2	+4	6
4	Juventus W	2	+1	3
5	Napoli W	3	0	3
6	Ternana W	2	0	3
7	Fiorentina W	2	0	3
8	Como W	2	−1	3
9	AC Milan W	2	−2	3
10	Parma W	2	−1	1
11	Lazio W	2	−2	1
12	Sassuolo W	3	−7	0