Sassuolo W v Napoli W prediction · Serie A Women

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 14:49

Sassuolo W 1–4 Napoli W SASSUOLO W WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Sassuolo W win~~42%

~~The market said~~34%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.707

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.572

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 23 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Sassuolo W win at 42%.
1′Much as we predicted: Sassuolo W was 42% before kick-off and our model makes it 42% now. 0–0 · 42–26–32
1′KICK-OFF Sassuolo W v Napoli W
10′M. Giordano scores for Napoli W on 10′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 18–23–59
10′⚽ GOAL · 10' Sassuolo W 0–1 Napoli W · M. Giordano
10′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 10' Sassuolo W win: 42% at kick-off, 18% now
10′THE CALL SWINGS · 10' Napoli W win is now our likeliest result at 59% (was Sassuolo W win 18%)
11′We said Sassuolo W at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 17%. 0–1 · 17–23–59
20′20′: C. Dompig on the scoresheet for Napoli W, making it 0–2. 0–2 · 5–11–84
20′⚽ GOAL · 20' Sassuolo W 0–2 Napoli W · C. Dompig
20′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 20' Sassuolo W win: 42% at kick-off, 5% now
21′19′: C. Dompig on the scoresheet for Napoli W, making it 0–2. 0–2 · 5–11–85
22′We said Sassuolo W at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 5%. 0–2 · 5–11–85
24′We said Sassuolo W at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–2 · 4–10–85
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Sassuolo W win: 42% at kick-off, 2% now
45′HALF-TIME Sassuolo W 0–2 Napoli W
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Sassuolo W · On: K. Skupien · Off: J. Galabadaarachchi
46′SECOND HALF Sassuolo W 0–2 Napoli W
49′🟨 YELLOW · 48' S. Caiazzo · Sassuolo W
50′Napoli W ahead on 50′ through C. Dompig. 0–3. 0–3 · 0–1–98
50′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.5 across ninety minutes. 0–3 · 0–1–98
50′⚽ GOAL · 50' Sassuolo W 0–3 Napoli W · C. Dompig
63′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Sassuolo W · On: P. Stanic · Off: A. Paz
63′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Sassuolo W · On: M. Brustia · Off: C. Venturelli
67′L. Clelland scores for Sassuolo W on 67′ — 1–3. 1–3 · 0–3–96
67′4 goals already, more than the 2.5 we expected for the whole match. 1–3 · 0–3–96
67′⚽ GOAL · 67' Sassuolo W 1–3 Napoli W · L. Clelland (penalty)
71′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Sassuolo W · On: L. Papp · Off: H. Fercocq
74′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Napoli W · On: D. Ndaw · Off: E. Mece
79′79′: C. Dompig on the scoresheet for Napoli W, making it 1–4. 1–4 · 0–0–100
79′That is 5, and we only asked for 2.5 across ninety minutes. 1–4 · 0–0–100
79′⚽ GOAL · 79' Sassuolo W 1–4 Napoli W · C. Dompig
80′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Napoli W · On: N. Mihelic · Off: A. Carcassi
81′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Sassuolo W · On: K. Wyrwas · Off: G. Guerzoni
85′🟨 YELLOW · 85' K. Skupien · Sassuolo W
87′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Napoli W · On: O. Massombo · Off: K. Kozak
FTFULL TIME Sassuolo W 1–4 Napoli W
FTSassuolo W 1–4 Napoli W · Sassuolo W win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Sassuolo W are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Sassuolo W 42%, draw 26%, Napoli W 32%. Over 2.5 goals 45%, both teams to score 49%.

The AI’s read on Sassuolo W v Napoli WBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Sassuolo W win42%

Draw26%

Napoli W win32%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 11:30

RoundMatchday 3

VenueStadio Enzo Ricci

RefereeG. Guitaldi

Line-ups

Sassuolo W

Napoli W

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Sassuolo W

Napoli W

14Days since last match13

Last match: 3 Oct · Serie A Women

Last match: 4 Oct · Serie A Women

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	Napoli W	2	−3	0
12	Sassuolo W	2	−4	0

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Sassuolo W

Formation not confirmed

1 N. Benz

25 C. Venturelli

5 S. Caiazzo

73 D. Cox

2 D. Philtjens

24 P. Fadda

4 H. Fercocq

6 G. Guerzoni

30 A. Paz

19 J. Galabadaarachchi

26 L. Clelland

Coach · Salvatore Colantuono

Substitutes

18 · F. De Bona

99 · P. Stanic

3 · S. Mella

15 · L. Palakovics

7 · K. Skupien

8 · M. Brustia

11 · S. Fisher

10 · L. Papp

20 · M. Gunster

14 · B. Sprung

98 · K. Wyrwas

77 · G. Trevisan

Napoli W

Formation not confirmed

22 S. Manner

17 A. Carcassi

6 T. Pettenuzzo

4 C. Pleidrup

67 M. Giordano

77 E. Sulola

90 G. Langella

23 M. Bellucci

99 E. Mece

11 C. Dompig

8 K. Kozak

Coach · Alessandro Spugna

Substitutes

47 · M. Gaglione

43 · B. Beretta

18 · N. Mihelic

26 · O. Romiti

5 · E. Veletanlic

2 · D. Ndaw

7 · M. Carstensen

10 · M. Banusic

31 · O. Massombo

19 · M. Romanelli

41 · A. Mascenti

35 · N. Sgammato

Our number · sassuolo w winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

42% The market34%

Us42%

~~Market~~34%

We make Sassuolo W a 42% chance to win. The market has them at 34%. We are 8 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Sassuolo W v Napoli W~~1.35 – 1.13

~~Form · Serie A Women this season · since 26 Sept~~W0 D0 L2 · W0 D0 L2

~~Table places · points 0 v 0~~12 v 11

~~The market · Sassuolo W win~~34% · ours 42%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Sassuolo W win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 34% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Sassuolo W win	42%	34%	+8
Draw	26%	28%	−2
Napoli W win	32%	38%	−6
Over 2.5 goals	45%	49%	−4
Both teams to score	49%	54%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	70%	72%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	24%	29%	−5
Sassuolo W or draw	68%	62%	+6
Sassuolo W clean sheet	33%	–	–
Napoli W clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 12.0%

0123450 8.1 10.1 5.4 2.1 1 12.0 11.9 7.0 2.7 2 7.6 8.3 4.7 3 3.5 3.8 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Sassuolo W down, Napoli W across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 668 Serie A Women matches up to 4 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Serie A Women matches have gone over 2.5 in 57.2% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 3 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Sassuolo W at home: 0.33 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 6). Napoli W away: 1.17 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.35 goals for Sassuolo W, 1.13 for Napoli W. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 10

~~Both scored~~4 of 10

~~Last meetings~~NAP 1–1 SAS · SAS 0–2 NAP · NAP 3–1 SAS · NAP 0–1 SAS

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Serie A Women this season · since 26 Sept

SASSUOLO W

LL1–3 · 0–2

NAPOLI W

LL1–3 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Roma W	2	+4	6
2	Como 1907 W	2	+4	6
3	Inter Milano W	2	+4	6
4	Juventus W	2	+1	3
5	Ternana W	2	0	3
6	Fiorentina W	2	0	3
7	Como W	2	−1	3
8	AC Milan W	2	−2	3
9	Parma W	2	−1	1
10	Lazio W	2	−2	1
11	Napoli W	2	−3	0
12	Sassuolo W	2	−4	0