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Roma W v AC Milan W

Roma W

4–2Full time

AC Milan W

Serie A Women · SUN 18 OCT · Stadio Tre Fontane

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 16:43

Roma W 4–2 AC Milan W ROMA W WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Roma W win~~59%

~~The market said~~65%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.249

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.188

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay23 notes · 33 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Roma W win at 59%.
1′Much as we predicted: Roma W was 59% before kick-off and our model makes it 59% now. 0–0 · 59–20–21
1′KICK-OFF Roma W v AC Milan W
9′We published Roma W at 59%. Our model now makes it 79%. 1–0 · 79–14–7
9′⚽ GOAL · 9' Roma W 1–0 AC Milan W
9′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 9' Roma W win: 59% at kick-off, 79% now
10′Roma W ahead on 10′ through G. Pellegrino. 1–0. 1–0 · 79–14–7
23′⚽ GOAL · 23' Roma W 1–1 AC Milan W
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 23' Roma W win: 59% at kick-off, 54% now
24′C. Grimshaw scores for AC Milan W on 24′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 54–25–21
28′We said Roma W at 59%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 26%. 1–2 · 26–26–47
28′⚽ GOAL · 28' Roma W 1–2 AC Milan W
28′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 28' Roma W win: 59% at kick-off, 26% now
28′THE CALL SWINGS · 28' AC Milan W win is now our likeliest result at 47% (was Roma W win 26%)
29′29′: C. Grimshaw on the scoresheet for AC Milan W, making it 1–2. 1–2 · 26–26–48
33′We said Roma W at 59%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 1–2 · 24–27–49
44′We said Roma W at 59%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 1–2 · 19–27–53
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Roma W win: 59% at kick-off, 19% now
45′SECOND HALF Roma W 1–2 AC Milan W
46′HALF-TIME Roma W 1–2 AC Milan W
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Roma W · On: F. Thogersen · Off: V. Bergamaschi
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Roma W · On: A. Pilgrim · Off: M. Doms
47′We said Roma W at 59%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 46%. 2–2 · 46–35–20
47′4 goals already, more than the 3.2 we expected for the whole match. 2–2 · 46–35–20
47′⚽ GOAL · 47' Roma W 2–2 AC Milan W
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 47' Roma W win: 59% at kick-off, 46% now
47′THE CALL SWINGS · 47' Roma W win is now our likeliest result at 46% (was AC Milan W win 20%)
48′Roma W level it on 47′ through G. Pellegrino. 2–2. 2–2 · 45–35–20
50′We said Roma W at 59%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 44%. 2–2 · 44–36–19
59′We said Roma W at 59%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 39%. 2–2 · 39–43–18
59′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 59' Roma W win: 59% at kick-off, 39% now
60′THE CALL SWINGS · 60' Draw is now our likeliest result at 44% (was Roma W win 38%)
61′🟨 YELLOW · 60' Park Soo-Jeong · AC Milan W
61′SUBSTITUTION · 61' AC Milan W · On: M. Sesay · Off: S. Fornes
65′We published Roma W at 59%. Our model now makes it 83%. 3–2 · 83–14–2
65′⚽ GOAL · 65' Roma W 3–2 AC Milan W
65′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 65' Roma W win: 59% at kick-off, 83% now
65′THE CALL SWINGS · 65' Roma W win is now our likeliest result at 83% (was Draw 14%)
66′That is 5, and we only asked for 3.2 across ninety minutes. 3–2 · 84–14–2
67′M. Giugliano scores for Roma W on 66′ — 3–2. 3–2 · 84–14–2
67′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Roma W · On: A. Corelli · Off: M. Piemonte
69′We published Roma W at 59%. Our model now makes it 85%. 3–2 · 85–13–2
70′SUBSTITUTION · 70' AC Milan W · On: E. Koivisto · Off: M. Keijzer
70′SUBSTITUTION · 70' AC Milan W · On: A. Brighton · Off: M. Mascarello
77′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Roma W · On: E. Oliviero · Off: G. Pellegrino
77′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 77' Roma W win: 59% at kick-off, 89% now
79′We published Roma W at 59%. Our model now makes it 90%. 3–2 · 90–9–1
81′SUBSTITUTION · 80' AC Milan W · On: J. Piga · Off: N. Sorelli
86′We published Roma W at 59%. Our model now makes it 95%. 3–2 · 95–5–0
86′🟨 YELLOW · 86' A. Rieke · Roma W
94′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+4' Roma W win: 59% at kick-off, 99% now
95′We published Roma W at 59%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 4–2 · 100–0–0
95′6 goals already, more than the 3.2 we expected for the whole match. 4–2 · 100–0–0
95′Full time, 4–2. We called Roma W at 59% — that one lands. 4–2 · 100–0–0
95′90′: G. Greggi on the scoresheet for Roma W, making it 4–2. 4–2 · 100–0–0
95′⚽ GOAL · 90+5' Roma W 4–2 AC Milan W
FTFULL TIME Roma W 4–2 AC Milan W
FTRoma W 4–2 AC Milan W · Roma W win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Roma W are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Roma W 59%, draw 20%, AC Milan W 21%. Over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 58%.

The AI’s read on Roma W v AC Milan WBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Roma W win59%

Draw20%

AC Milan W win21%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 14:00

RoundMatchday 3

VenueStadio Tre Fontane

RefereeA. Liotta

Line-ups

Roma W

AC Milan W

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Roma W

AC Milan W

15Days since last match14

Last match: 3 Oct · Serie A Women

Last match: 4 Oct · Serie A Women

0Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Roma W

Formation not confirmed

24 R. Baldi

23 V. Bergamaschi

5 M. Antoine

19 S. Oladipo

12 E. Ottey

6 M. Doms

29 A. Rieke

20 G. Greggi

10 M. Giugliano

18 M. Piemonte

14 G. Pellegrino

Coach · Gianpiero Piovani

Substitutes

36 · V. Soggiu

25 · F. Thogersen

13 · E. Oliviero

32 · B. Vergani

4 · W. Heatley

78 · M. Piekarska

8 · K. van Dooren

22 · M. Pandini

30 · R. Babajide

16 · A. Corelli

11 · A. Pilgrim

7 · S. Jahnukainen

AC Milan W

Formation not confirmed

1 S. Estevez

21 M. Keijzer

6 N. Sorelli

20 A. Soffia

47 N. Nevado

14 Park Soo-Jeong

12 M. Mascarello

11 C. Grimshaw

7 T. Kyvag

9 S. Fornes

15 S. Stokic

Coach · Suzanne Bakker

Substitutes

22 · L. Tornaghi

24 · S. Rainey

23 · J. Piga

25 · K. De Sanders

2 · E. Koivisto

32 · A. Brighton

19 · D. Arboleda

33 · E. Bonanomi

38 · E. Vitale

17 · M. Sesay

35 · P. Taddei

Our number · roma w winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

59% The market65%

Us59%

~~Market~~65%

We make Roma W a 59% chance to win. The market has them at 65%. We are 6 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.1–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Roma W v AC Milan W~~2.08 – 1.13

~~Form · Serie A Women this season · since 26 Sept~~W2 D0 L0 · W1 D0 L1

~~Table places · points 6 v 3~~1 v 9

~~The market · Roma W win~~65% · ours 59%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Roma W win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 65% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Roma W win	59%	65%	−6
Draw	20%	21%	−1
AC Milan W win	21%	14%	+7
Over 2.5 goals	62%	57%	+5
Both teams to score	58%	51%	+7
Over 1.5 goals	82%	79%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	40%	35%	+5
Roma W or draw	79%	86%	−7
Roma W clean sheet	33%	–	–
AC Milan W clean sheet	13%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 9.5%

0123450 3.8 5.2 2.7 1 9.1 8.9 5.3 2.0 2 8.7 9.5 5.4 2.1 3 6.0 6.5 3.7 4 3.2 3.5 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Roma W down, AC Milan W across0–5 goals a side shown (97.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 671 Serie A Women matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Serie A Women matches have gone over 2.5 in 57.2% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.60 goals a meeting; 8 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Roma W at home: 2.33 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). AC Milan W away: 1.17 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.08 goals for Roma W, 1.13 for AC Milan W. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.60

~~Over 2.5~~8 of 10

~~Both scored~~8 of 10

~~Last meetings~~ROM 1–0 ACM · ACM 1–2 ROM · ROM 1–0 ACM · ROM 3–3 ACM

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Serie A Women this season · since 26 Sept

ROMA W

WW3–1 · 3–1

AC MILAN W

LW1–4 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Roma W	2	+4	6
2	Como 1907 W	2	+4	6
3	Inter Milano W	2	+4	6
4	Ternana W	3	+1	6
5	Fiorentina W	3	0	4
6	Como W	3	−1	4
7	Juventus W	2	+1	3
8	Napoli W	3	0	3
9	AC Milan W	2	−2	3
10	Parma W	2	−1	1
11	Lazio W	3	−3	1
12	Sassuolo W	3	−7	0