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Napoli W v Inter Milano W

Napoli W

0–0Full time

Inter Milano W

Serie A Women · SAT 24 OCT · Stadio Giuseppe Piccolo

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 18:08

Napoli W 0–0 Inter Milano W INTER MILANO W WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Inter Milano W win~~59%

~~The market said~~63%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~1.022

~~The market’s Brier score~~1.040

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 23 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Inter Milano W win at 59%.
1′Much as we predicted: Inter Milano W was 59% before kick-off and our model makes it 59% now. 0–0 · 20–21–59
1′KICK-OFF Napoli W v Inter Milano W
9′🟨 YELLOW · 8' A. Carcassi · Napoli W
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 36' Inter Milano W win: 59% at kick-off, 49% now
42′We said Inter Milano W at 59%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 47%. 0–0 · 19–34–47
45′HALF-TIME Napoli W 0–0 Inter Milano W
46′SECOND HALF Napoli W 0–0 Inter Milano W
48′We said Inter Milano W at 59%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 44%. 0–0 · 19–37–44
55′We expected about 3.0 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 18–42–41
57′We said Inter Milano W at 59%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 39%. 0–0 · 17–43–39
57′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 57' Inter Milano W win: 59% at kick-off, 39% now
58′THE CALL SWINGS · 58' Draw is now our likeliest result at 44% (was Inter Milano W win 42%)
58′🟨 YELLOW · 57' M. Bellucci · Napoli W
58′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Inter Milano W · On: H. Bugeja · Off: E. Polli
58′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Inter Milano W · On: S. Garcia · Off: E. Kullberg
65′We said Inter Milano W at 59%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 15–51–34
67′🟨 YELLOW · 67' T. Pettenuzzo · Napoli W
69′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Inter Milano W · On: B. Raphino · Off: M. Cambiaghi
69′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Inter Milano W · On: M. Detruyer · Off: A. Oyedupe Payne
70′We said Inter Milano W at 59%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 14–57–29
70′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 70' Inter Milano W win: 59% at kick-off, 29% now
72′🟨 YELLOW · 71' S. van Diemen · Inter Milano W
75′We said Inter Milano W at 59%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 12–64–24
79′We said Inter Milano W at 59%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 9–72–19
79′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Inter Milano W · On: C. Robustellini · Off: S. van Diemen
79′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 79' Inter Milano W win: 59% at kick-off, 19% now
82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Napoli W · On: N. Mihelic · Off: M. Bellucci
83′We said Inter Milano W at 59%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 13%. 0–0 · 7–80–13
87′We said Inter Milano W at 59%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 5–87–9
87′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 87' Inter Milano W win: 59% at kick-off, 9% now
89′🟨 YELLOW · 89' B. Raphino · Inter Milano W
92′We said Inter Milano W at 59%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–0 · 2–94–4
96′SUBSTITUTION · 90+1' Napoli W · On: D. Ndaw · Off: A. Carcassi
96′🟨 YELLOW · 90+2' M. Milinkovic · Inter Milano W
FTFULL TIME Napoli W 0–0 Inter Milano W
FTNapoli W 0–0 Inter Milano W · Inter Milano W win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 0–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Inter Milano W are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Napoli W 20%, draw 21%, Inter Milano W 59%. Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on Napoli W v Inter Milano WBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Napoli W win20%

Draw21%

Inter Milano W win59%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 4

VenueStadio Giuseppe Piccolo

RefereeF. R. Luongo

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Napoli W

Inter Milano W

7Days since last match6

Last match: 17 Oct · Serie A Women

Last match: 18 Oct · Serie A Women

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · inter milano w winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

59% The market63%

Us59%

~~Market~~63%

We make Inter Milano W a 59% chance to win. The market has them at 63%. We are 4 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.0–2.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Napoli W v Inter Milano W~~1.02 – 1.95

~~Form · Serie A Women this season · since 26 Sept~~W1 D0 L2 · W3 D0 L0

~~Table places · points 3 v 9~~7 v 1

~~The market · Inter Milano W win~~63% · ours 59%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Inter Milano W win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 63% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Napoli W win	20%	15%	+5
Draw	21%	21%	0
Inter Milano W win	59%	63%	−4
Over 2.5 goals	57%	56%	+1
Both teams to score	53%	52%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	79%	78%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	35%	35%	0
Napoli W or draw	41%	37%	+4
Napoli W clean sheet	15%	–	–
Inter Milano W clean sheet	37%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 10.7%

0123450 4.9 10.7 9.7 6.3 3.2 1 5.9 9.5 9.5 6.2 3.1 2 2.8 5.1 4.9 3.1 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Napoli W down, Inter Milano W across0–5 goals a side shown (98.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 674 Serie A Women matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Serie A Women matches have gone over 2.5 in 57.8% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 9 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.22 goals a meeting; 5 of 9 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Napoli W at home: 1.33 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Inter Milano W away: 2.33 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.02 goals for Napoli W, 1.95 for Inter Milano W. Most likely score 0–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

9 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.22

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 9

~~Both scored~~4 of 9

~~Last meetings~~INT 6–0 NAP · INT 2–2 NAP · NAP 1–0 INT · INT 1–0 NAP

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Serie A Women this season · since 26 Sept

NAPOLI W

LLW1–3 · 1–2 · 4–1

INTER MILANO W

WWW2–0 · 2–0 · 3–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Inter Milano W	3	+7	9
2	Roma W	3	+6	9
3	Como 1907 W	3	+6	9
4	Ternana W	3	+1	6
5	Fiorentina W	3	0	4
6	Como W	3	−1	4
7	Napoli W	3	0	3
8	Juventus W	3	−1	3
9	AC Milan W	3	−4	3
10	Lazio W	3	−3	1
11	Parma W	3	−4	1
12	Sassuolo W	3	−7	0