Lazio W v Como W prediction · Serie A Women

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Lazio WDrawComo W

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 11:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Lazio W 44%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Lazio W are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Lazio W 44%, draw 25%, Como W 30%. Over 2.5 goals 47%, both teams to score 50%.

The AI’s read on Lazio W v Como WBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Lazio W win44%

Draw25%

Como W win30%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 11:30

RoundMatchday 4

VenueCampo Mirko Fersini

RefereeA. Giordani

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Lazio W

Como W

8Days since last match8

Last match: 17 Oct · Serie A Women

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Como W	3	−1	4
10	Lazio W	3	−3	1

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · lazio w winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

44% The market42%

Us44%

~~Market~~42%

We make Lazio W a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 42%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.4–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Lazio W v Como W~~1.44 – 1.13

~~Form · Serie A Women this season · since 26 Sept~~W0 D1 L2 · W1 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 1 v 4~~10 v 8

~~The market · Lazio W win~~42% · ours 44%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Lazio W win The market, margin stripped

Published at 45%, 44% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 42% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Lazio W win	44%	42%	+2
Draw	25%	28%	−3
Como W win	30%	30%	0
Over 2.5 goals	47%	48%	−1
Both teams to score	50%	53%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	72%	71%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	26%	27%	−1
Lazio W or draw	70%	70%	0
Lazio W clean sheet	33%	–	–
Como W clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.7%

0123450 7.5 9.3 4.9 1 11.6 11.7 6.9 2.6 2 7.9 8.7 4.9 3 3.8 4.2 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Lazio W down, Como W across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 677 Serie A Women matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Serie A Women matches have gone over 2.5 in 57.8% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 7 previous meetings since 2022/23 in every competition we cover, 3.71 goals a meeting; 5 of 7 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Lazio W at home: 1.00 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Como W away: 1.50 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.44 goals for Lazio W, 1.13 for Como W. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

7 meetings since 2022/23

~~Goals a meeting~~3.71

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 7

~~Both scored~~5 of 7

~~Last meetings~~LAZ 1–1 COM · COM 1–2 LAZ · COM 0–4 LAZ · LAZ 0–2 COM

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Serie A Women this season · since 26 Sept

LAZIO W

DLL0–0 · 1–3 · 0–1

COMO W

WLD2–1 · 0–2 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Roma W	4	+9	12
2	Inter Milano W	4	+7	10
3	Como 1907 W	3	+6	9
4	AC Milan W	4	−1	6
5	Ternana W	4	−2	6
6	Napoli W	4	0	4
7	Fiorentina W	3	0	4
8	Como W	3	−1	4
9	Juventus W	4	−4	3
10	Lazio W	3	−3	1
11	Parma W	3	−4	1
12	Sassuolo W	3	−7	0