Inter Milano W v Parma W prediction · Serie A Women

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 19:31

Inter Milano W 3–0 Parma W INTER MILANO W WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Inter Milano W win~~71%

~~The market said~~70%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.131

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.136

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 27 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Inter Milano W win at 71%.
1′Much as we predicted: Inter Milano W was 71% before kick-off and our model makes it 70% now. 0–0 · 70–17–12
1′KICK-OFF Inter Milano W v Parma W
30′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 30' Inter Milano W win: 71% at kick-off, 61% now
35′We said Inter Milano W at 71%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 59%. 0–0 · 59–28–13
37′36′: H. Bugeja on the scoresheet for Inter Milano W, making it 1–0. 1–0 · 87–10–3
37′⚽ GOAL · 36' Inter Milano W 1–0 Parma W · H. Bugeja (penalty)
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 37' Inter Milano W win: 71% at kick-off, 87% now
37′PENALTY MISSED · 36' H. Bugeja · Inter Milano W
37′GOAL DISALLOWED · 37' Inter Milano W
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 37' Inter Milano W win: 71% at kick-off, 58% now
40′39′: H. Bugeja on the scoresheet for Inter Milano W, making it 1–0. 1–0 · 87–11–3
40′⚽ GOAL · 40' Inter Milano W 1–0 Parma W · H. Bugeja
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 40' Inter Milano W win: 71% at kick-off, 87% now
41′We published Inter Milano W at 71%. Our model now makes it 87%. 1–0 · 87–11–2
41′Goals are coming at about the 3.0 we expected. 1–0 · 87–11–2
45′HALF-TIME Inter Milano W 1–0 Parma W
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Parma W · On: I. Lobo · Off: T. Bowie
46′SECOND HALF Inter Milano W 1–0 Parma W
52′🟨 YELLOW · 51' K. Vilhjalmsdottir · Inter Milano W
58′Inter Milano W ahead on 57′ through K. Vilhjalmsdottir. 2–0. 2–0 · 98–1–0
58′We published Inter Milano W at 71%. Our model now makes it 98%. 2–0 · 98–1–0
58′⚽ GOAL · 57' Inter Milano W 2–0 Parma W · K. Vilhjalmsdottir
58′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 58' Inter Milano W win: 71% at kick-off, 98% now
59′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Parma W · On: M. Tomaselli · Off: J. Jorde
60′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Parma W · On: S. Sondergard · Off: C. Cavallin
67′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Inter Milano W · On: R. Giudici · Off: K. Vilhjalmsdottir
68′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Inter Milano W · On: A. Oyedupe Payne · Off: B. Glionna
72′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Parma W · On: E. Healy · Off: B. Merlo
72′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Inter Milano W · On: E. Polli · Off: H. Bugeja
72′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Inter Milano W · On: M. Cambiaghi · Off: B. Raphino
76′We published Inter Milano W at 71%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
80′🟨 YELLOW · 80' M. Detruyer · Inter Milano W
82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Parma W · On: B. Georgsdottir · Off: G. Distefano
86′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Inter Milano W · On: M. Tomasevic · Off: I. Santi
88′M. Cambiaghi scores for Inter Milano W on 87′ — 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
88′⚽ GOAL · 87' Inter Milano W 3–0 Parma W · M. Cambiaghi
FTFULL TIME Inter Milano W 3–0 Parma W
FTInter Milano W 3–0 Parma W · Inter Milano W win: right · Over 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Inter Milano W are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Inter Milano W 71%, draw 17%, Parma W 12%. Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 46%.

The AI’s read on Inter Milano W v Parma WBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Inter Milano W win71%

Draw17%

Parma W win12%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 17:00

RoundMatchday 3

VenueStadio Ernesto Breda

RefereeM. Pasculli

Line-ups

Inter Milano W

Parma W

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Inter Milano W

Parma W

14Days since last match15

Last match: 4 Oct · Serie A Women

Last match: 3 Oct · Serie A Women

1Matches in previous 14 days0

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Inter Milano W	2	+4	6
10	Parma W	2	−1	1

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Inter Milano W

Formation not confirmed

1 C. Runarsdottir

2 E. Kullberg

24 M. Milinkovic

5 Ivana

14 C. Robustellini

18 B. Glionna

6 I. Santi

8 K. Vilhjalmsdottir

20 M. Detruyer

26 B. Raphino

7 H. Bugeja

Coach · David Sassarini

Substitutes

12 · C. Forcinella

99 · E. Belli

4 · S. van Diemen

46 · M. Bressan

29 · R. Giudici

36 · M. Cambiaghi

16 · M. Tomasevic

9 · E. Polli

17 · A. Oyedupe Payne

Parma W

Formation not confirmed

12 C. Ceasar

13 B. Merlo

5 H. Sharts

20 W. Szymaszek

18 L. Dominguez

21 C. Cavallin

29 M. Uffren

6 J. Jorde

42 T. Bowie

26 E. Ekic

17 G. Distefano

Coach · Giovanni Valenti

Substitutes

22 · M. Copetti

24 · F. Fierro

25 · C. Ambrosi

4 · B. Bou

77 · S. Sondergard

2 · I. Lobo

16 · S. Zappettini

23 · M. Tomaselli

8 · G. Pondini

7 · I. Rabot

28 · B. Georgsdottir

11 · E. Healy

Our number · inter milano w winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

71% The market70%

Us71%

~~Market~~70%

We make Inter Milano W a 71% chance to win. The market has them at 70%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 2.3–0.8.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Inter Milano W v Parma W~~2.26 – 0.77

~~Form · Serie A Women this season · since 26 Sept~~W2 D0 L0 · W0 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 6 v 1~~3 v 10

~~The market · Inter Milano W win~~70% · ours 71%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Inter Milano W win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 70% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Inter Milano W win	71%	70%	+1
Draw	17%	19%	−2
Parma W win	12%	11%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	58%	58%	0
Both teams to score	46%	48%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	79%	80%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	36%	37%	−1
Inter Milano W or draw	88%	89%	−1
Inter Milano W clean sheet	47%	–	–
Parma W clean sheet	11%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 12.1%

0123450 4.8 4.4 1 11.5 8.0 3.3 2 12.1 9.0 3.5 3 9.1 6.6 2.6 4 5.3 3.8 5 2.6

under 2% 5% 12%+Inter Milano W down, Parma W across0–5 goals a side shown (96.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 671 Serie A Women matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Serie A Women matches have gone over 2.5 in 57.2% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2022/23 in every competition we cover, 3.17 goals a meeting; 4 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Inter Milano W at home: 1.67 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Parma W away: 0.33 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.26 goals for Inter Milano W, 0.77 for Parma W. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2022/23

~~Goals a meeting~~3.17

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 6

~~Both scored~~4 of 6

~~Last meetings~~PAR 0–1 INT · PAR 2–3 INT · INT 0–0 PAR · PAR 2–2 INT

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Serie A Women this season · since 26 Sept

INTER MILANO W

WW2–0 · 2–0

PARMA W

DL0–0 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Como 1907 W	3	+6	9
2	Roma W	2	+4	6
3	Inter Milano W	2	+4	6
4	Ternana W	3	+1	6
5	Fiorentina W	3	0	4
6	Como W	3	−1	4
7	Napoli W	3	0	3
8	Juventus W	3	−1	3
9	AC Milan W	2	−2	3
10	Parma W	2	−1	1
11	Lazio W	3	−3	1
12	Sassuolo W	3	−7	0