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Como W v Fiorentina W

Como W
1–1Full time
Fiorentina W

Serie A Women · SAT 17 OCT · Stadio Ferruccio

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 17:28
Como W 1–1 Fiorentina W FIORENTINA W WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT
We said Fiorentina W win39%
The market said47%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.831
The market’s Brier score0.816

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 20 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Fiorentina W win at 39%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Fiorentina W 39% before kick-off, 39% now. 0–0 · 35–26–39
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Como W v Fiorentina W
  4. 31′I. Omarsdottir scores for Fiorentina W on 30′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 10–21–69
  5. 31′We said Fiorentina W at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 69%. 0–1 · 10–21–69
  6. 31′⚽ GOAL · 30' Como W 0–1 Fiorentina W · I. Omarsdottir
  7. 31′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 31' Fiorentina W win: 39% at kick-off, 69% now
  8. 32′The goal count is tracking the 2.5 we expected. 0–1 · 10–21–69
  9. 35′We said Fiorentina W at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 70%. 0–1 · 9–21–70
  10. 41′SUBSTITUTION · 40' Fiorentina W · On: A. Cerrato · Off: M. Cortes
  11. 45′HALF-TIME Como W 0–1 Fiorentina W
  12. 46′SECOND HALF Como W 0–1 Fiorentina W
  13. 48′46′: M. Bergersen on the scoresheet for Como W, making it 1–1. 1–1 · 27–42–30
  14. 48′Little has changed for our model: Fiorentina W 39% before kick-off, 30% now. 1–1 · 27–42–30
  15. 48′⚽ GOAL · 46' Como W 1–1 Fiorentina W · M. Bergersen
  16. 48′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 48' Fiorentina W win: 39% at kick-off, 30% now
  17. 48′THE CALL SWINGS · 48' Draw is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Fiorentina W win 30%)
  18. 51′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 51' Fiorentina W win: 39% at kick-off, 29% now
  19. 56′We said Fiorentina W at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 27%. 1–1 · 25–48–27
  20. 58′The goal count is tracking the 2.5 we expected. 1–1 · 24–50–26
  21. 62′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Como W · On: G. Moretti · Off: A. Chidiac
  22. 63′We said Fiorentina W at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 22–54–24
  23. 64′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Fiorentina W · On: I. Chacon · Off: S. Bredgaard
  24. 65′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Fiorentina W · On: L. Hurtig · Off: I. Van Der Zanden
  25. 65′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Fiorentina W · On: E. Faerge · Off: I. Omarsdottir
  26. 71′We said Fiorentina W at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 18–63–19
  27. 71′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 71' Fiorentina W win: 39% at kick-off, 19% now
  28. 78′We said Fiorentina W at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–1 · 13–74–14
  29. 83′We said Fiorentina W at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–1 · 8–83–9
  30. 83′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 83' Fiorentina W win: 39% at kick-off, 9% now
  31. 87′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Como W · On: L. Serra · Off: M. Zamboni
  32. 87′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Como W · On: V. Vigilucci · Off: L. Borbye
  33. 87′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Fiorentina W · On: B. Orsi · Off: E. Snerle
  34. 90′We said Fiorentina W at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 4–92–4
  35. FTFULL TIME Como W 1–1 Fiorentina W
  36. FTComo W 1–1 Fiorentina W · Fiorentina W win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Fiorentina W just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Como W 35%, draw 26%, Fiorentina W 39%. Over 2.5 goals 45%, both teams to score 49%.

The AI’s read on Como W v Fiorentina WBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Como W win35%
Draw26%
Fiorentina W win39%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 14:00

RoundMatchday 3

VenueStadio Ferruccio

RefereeF. Aloise

Line-ups

Como W

Fiorentina W

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Como W

Fiorentina W

13Days since last match14

Last match: 4 Oct · Serie A Women

Last match: 3 Oct · Serie A Women

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
6Fiorentina W203
7Como W2−13

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Como W

Formation not confirmed

22 A. Gilardi

2 A. Marcussen

5 S. Howard

3 K. Ronan

77 L. Borbye

20 F. Simonetti

6 M. Bergersen

10 A. Chidiac

27 M. Zamboni

7 N. Nischler

12 A. Nielsen

Coach · Stefano Sottili

Substitutes

32 · S. Babb

30 · G. Ruma

14 · C. Cecotti

21 · M. Viesti

8 · L. Hubaut

11 · F. Berisha

24 · C. Bianchi

19 · L. Serra

17 · V. Vigilucci

9 · V. Bernardi

16 · G. Moretti

Fiorentina W

Formation not confirmed

1 C. Fiskerstrand

22 I. Van Der Zanden

4 G. Bergsvand

19 C. Correia

3 O. Johansen

21 E. Severini

6 M. Cortes

7 K. Tryggvadottir

14 S. Bredgaard

51 I. Omarsdottir

18 E. Snerle

Coach · Jesus Pinones-Arce Pablo

Substitutes

28 · V. Bartalini

23 · G. Bettineschi

2 · E. Woldvik

5 · A. Tortelli

85 · M. Filangeri

44 · E. Faerge

20 · B. Orsi

16 · E. Lombardi

26 · M. Cherubini

8 · L. Hurtig

79 · A. Cerrato

11 · I. Chacon

Our number · fiorentina w winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 17 Oct 05:24 · locked at kick-off
39% The market47%
Us39%
Market47%

We make Fiorentina W a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 47%. We are 8 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Como W v Fiorentina W1.20 – 1.30
Form · Serie A Women this season · since 27 SeptW1 D0 L1 · W1 D0 L1
Table places · points 3 v 37 v 6
The market · Fiorentina W win47% · ours 39%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
35%40%45%50% 11 OCT 04:0317 OCT 13:26
Our probability · Fiorentina W win The market, margin stripped

Published at 40%, 39% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 47% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Como W win35%26%+9
Draw26%27%−1
Fiorentina W win39%47%−8
Over 2.5 goals45%48%−3
Both teams to score49%51%−2
Over 1.5 goals70%72%−2
Over 3.5 goals24%28%−4
Como W or draw61%53%+8
Como W clean sheet28%––
Fiorentina W clean sheet31%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 4 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.9%
0123450 7.9 11.4 6.9 3.1 1 10.5 11.9 8.1 3.5 2 5.9 7.5 4.8 2.1 3 2.4 3.1 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Como W down, Fiorentina W across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

9 meetings since 2022/23
Goals a meeting2.78
Over 2.55 of 9
Both scored4 of 9
Last meetingsFIO 1–0 COM · COM 1–3 FIO · FIO 2–0 COM · COM 2–0 FIO

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Serie A Women this season · since 27 Sept

COMO W

WL2–1 · 0–2

FIORENTINA W

LW0–2 · 2–0

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Roma W2+46
2Como 1907 W2+46
3Inter Milano W2+46
4Juventus W2+13
5Ternana W203
6Fiorentina W203
7Como W2−13
8AC Milan W2−23
9Parma W2−11
10Lazio W2−21
11Napoli W2−30
12Sassuolo W2−40

The competition's standings before kick-off.