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AC Milan W v Ternana W

AC Milan W

3–0Full time

Ternana W

Serie A Women · SAT 24 OCT · Centro Sportivo Peppino Vismara

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 14:04

AC Milan W 3–0 Ternana W AC MILAN W WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said AC Milan W win~~58%

~~The market said~~60%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.259

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.239

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 23 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said AC Milan W win at 58%.
1′Much as we predicted: AC Milan W was 58% before kick-off and our model makes it 58% now. 0–0 · 58–21–21
1′KICK-OFF AC Milan W v Ternana W
18′AC Milan W ahead on 17′ through S. Stokic. 1–0. 1–0 · 79–14–6
18′⚽ GOAL · 17' AC Milan W 1–0 Ternana W · S. Stokic (assist M. Sesay)
18′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 18' AC Milan W win: 58% at kick-off, 79% now
19′We published AC Milan W at 58%. Our model now makes it 79%. 1–0 · 79–14–6
21′We published AC Milan W at 58%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–14–6
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.9 we expected. 1–0 · 80–15–6
33′🟨 YELLOW · 32' M. Mascarello · AC Milan W
36′S. Stokic scores for AC Milan W on 36′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 95–4–1
36′⚽ GOAL · 36' AC Milan W 2–0 Ternana W · S. Stokic
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 36' AC Milan W win: 58% at kick-off, 95% now
37′S. Stokic scores for AC Milan W on 35′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 95–4–1
37′We published AC Milan W at 58%. Our model now makes it 95%. 2–0 · 95–4–1
41′🟨 YELLOW · 41' J. Piga · AC Milan W
45′🟨 YELLOW · 45' T. Kyvag · AC Milan W
45′HALF-TIME AC Milan W 2–0 Ternana W
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Ternana W · On: S. Testa · Off: L. Pastrenge
46′SECOND HALF AC Milan W 2–0 Ternana W
62′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 62' AC Milan W win: 58% at kick-off, 98% now
62′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Ternana W · On: C. Labate · Off: C. Martins
63′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Ternana W · On: R. Ventriglia · Off: A. Regazzoli
63′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Ternana W · On: P. Lazaro · Off: S. Hornemann
66′SUBSTITUTION · 65' AC Milan W · On: M. Renzotti · Off: T. Kyvag
66′SUBSTITUTION · 66' AC Milan W · On: G. Arrigoni · Off: Park Soo-Jeong
66′SUBSTITUTION · 66' AC Milan W · On: N. Sorelli · Off: J. Piga
77′76′: A. Soffia on the scoresheet for AC Milan W, making it 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
77′⚽ GOAL · 76' AC Milan W 3–0 Ternana W · A. Soffia
78′We published AC Milan W at 58%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
78′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.9 across ninety minutes. 3–0 · 100–0–0
81′SUBSTITUTION · 80' AC Milan W · On: S. Fornes · Off: M. Sesay
84′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Ternana W · On: Yang Lina · Off: M. Petrara
88′SUBSTITUTION · 87' AC Milan W · On: E. Bonanomi · Off: N. Nevado
FTFULL TIME AC Milan W 3–0 Ternana W
FTAC Milan W 3–0 Ternana W · AC Milan W win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

AC Milan W are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: AC Milan W 58%, draw 21%, Ternana W 21%. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on AC Milan W v Ternana WBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

AC Milan W win58%

Draw21%

Ternana W win21%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 11:30

RoundMatchday 4

VenueCentro Sportivo Peppino Vismara

RefereeD. Ammannati

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

AC Milan W

Ternana W

6Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · Serie A Women

Last match: 17 Oct · Serie A Women

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Ternana W	3	+1	6
9	AC Milan W	3	−4	3

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · ac milan w winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 24 Oct 04:04 · locked at kick-off

58% The market60%

Us58%

~~Market~~60%

We make AC Milan W a 58% chance to win. The market has them at 60%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.9–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · AC Milan W v Ternana W~~1.91 – 1.01

~~Form · Serie A Women this season · since 26 Sept~~W1 D0 L2 · W2 D0 L1

~~Table places · points 3 v 6~~9 v 4

~~The market · AC Milan W win~~60% · ours 58%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · AC Milan W win The market, margin stripped

Published at 59%, 58% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 60% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
AC Milan W win	58%	60%	−2
Draw	21%	22%	−1
Ternana W win	21%	18%	+3
Over 2.5 goals	55%	58%	−3
Both teams to score	53%	55%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	78%	79%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	34%	36%	−2
AC Milan W or draw	79%	82%	−3
AC Milan W clean sheet	37%	–	–
Ternana W clean sheet	16%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 10.9%

0123450 5.2 6.1 2.9 1 10.9 9.7 5.2 2 9.7 9.5 4.8 3 6.2 6.0 3.0 4 3.1 3.0 5

under 2% 5% 12%+AC Milan W down, Ternana W across0–5 goals a side shown (98.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 674 Serie A Women matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Serie A Women matches have gone over 2.5 in 57.8% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2023/24 in every competition we cover, 2.33 goals a meeting; 2 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

AC Milan W at home: 1.17 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Ternana W away: 0.50 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.91 goals for AC Milan W, 1.01 for Ternana W. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2023/24

~~Goals a meeting~~2.33

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 3

~~Both scored~~1 of 3

~~Last meetings~~TER 1–0 ACM · ACM 3–0 TER · ACM 2–1 TER

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Serie A Women this season · since 26 Sept

AC MILAN W

LWL1–4 · 2–1 · 2–4

TERNANA W

LWW1–2 · 2–1 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Inter Milano W	3	+7	9
2	Roma W	3	+6	9
3	Como 1907 W	3	+6	9
4	Ternana W	3	+1	6
5	Fiorentina W	3	0	4
6	Como W	3	−1	4
7	Napoli W	3	0	3
8	Juventus W	3	−1	3
9	AC Milan W	3	−4	3
10	Lazio W	3	−3	1
11	Parma W	3	−4	1
12	Sassuolo W	3	−7	0