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Ternana v Recanatese

Ternana
5–1Full time
Recanatese

Coppa Italia Serie D · WED 21 OCT · Stadio Libero Liberati

Full timeGraded 21 Oct 19:30
Ternana 5–1 Recanatese TERNANA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Ternana win79%
The market said52%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.066
The market’s Brier score0.343

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 12 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Ternana win at 79%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Ternana 79% before kick-off, 79% now. 0–0 · 79–14–7
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Ternana v Recanatese
  4. 13′Ternana score on 12′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 92–6–2
  5. 13′We said Ternana at 79% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 92%. 1–0 · 92–6–2
  6. 13′⚽ GOAL · 12' Ternana 1–0 Recanatese
  7. 13′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 13' Ternana win: 79% at kick-off, 92% now
  8. 18′Ternana find the net on 17′. 2–0. 2–0 · 98–1–0
  9. 18′We said Ternana at 79% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 98%. 2–0 · 98–1–0
  10. 18′⚽ GOAL · 17' Ternana 2–0 Recanatese
  11. 39′A goal for Ternana on 39′ — 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
  12. 39′⚽ GOAL · 39' Ternana 3–0 Recanatese
  13. 39′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 39' Ternana win: 79% at kick-off, over 99% now
  14. 40′We said Ternana at 79% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
  15. 45′HALF-TIME Ternana 3–0 Recanatese
  16. 46′SECOND HALF Ternana 3–0 Recanatese
  17. 60′Ternana score on 59′ to make it 4–0. 4–0 · 100–0–0
  18. 60′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.4 across ninety minutes. 4–0 · 100–0–0
  19. 60′⚽ GOAL · 59' Ternana 4–0 Recanatese
  20. 67′Recanatese find the net on 67′. 4–1. 4–1 · 100–0–0
  21. 67′⚽ GOAL · 67' Ternana 4–1 Recanatese
  22. 68′5 goals already, more than the 3.4 we expected for the whole match. 4–1 · 100–0–0
  23. 90′A goal for Ternana on 90′ — 5–1. 5–1 · 100–0–0
  24. 90′That is 6, and we only asked for 3.4 across ninety minutes. 5–1 · 100–0–0
  25. 90′⚽ GOAL · 90' Ternana 5–1 Recanatese
  26. FTFULL TIME Ternana 5–1 Recanatese
  27. FTTernana 5–1 Recanatese · Ternana win: right · Over 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Ternana are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Ternana 79%, draw 14%, Recanatese 7%. Over 2.5 goals 66%, both teams to score 47%.

The AI’s read on Ternana v RecanateseBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 15 Oct 04:33 · locked at kick-off

Ternana win79%
Draw14%
Recanatese win7%

Kick-offWED 21 OCT · 17:00

RoundRound of 64

VenueStadio Libero Liberati

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Ternana

Recanatese

3Days since last match3

Last match: 18 Oct · Serie D - Girone E

Last match: 18 Oct · Serie D - Girone F

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · ternana winFirst published 15 Oct 04:33 · locked at kick-off
79% The market52%
Us79%
Market52%

We make Ternana a 79% chance to win. The market has them at 52%. We are 27 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.7–0.7.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Ternana v Recanatese2.69 – 0.69
The market · Ternana win52% · ours 79%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
50%60%70%80%90% 15 OCT 04:3321 OCT 16:46
Our probability · Ternana win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 52% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Ternana win79%52%+27
Draw14%26%−12
Recanatese win7%22%−15
Over 2.5 goals66%51%+15
Both teams to score47%53%−6
Over 1.5 goals85%74%+11
Over 3.5 goals44%31%+13
Ternana or draw93%78%+15
Ternana clean sheet50%––
Recanatese clean sheet7%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 12.3%
0123450 3.6 2.1 1 9.0 6.5 2.2 2 12.3 8.5 2.9 3 11.0 7.6 2.6 4 7.4 5.1 5 4.0 2.8
under 2% 5% 12%+Ternana down, Recanatese across0–5 goals a side shown (94.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Coppa Italia Serie D this season

TERNANA

No matches in our record yet.

RECANATESE

No matches in our record yet.