Lucchese v Sestri Levante prediction · Coppa Italia Serie D

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · postponed

Lucchese are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Lucchese 50%, draw 24%, Sestri Levante 25%. Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 58%.

The AI’s read on Lucchese v Sestri LevanteBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 22 Oct 00:01 · postponed, not graded

Lucchese win50%

Draw24%

Sestri Levante win25%

Kick-offWED 28 OCT · 13:30

RoundRound of 32

VenuePorta Elisa

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Lucchese

Sestri Levante

10Days since last match10

Last match: 18 Oct · Serie D - Girone E

Last match: 18 Oct · Serie D - Girone A

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · lucchese winFirst published 22 Oct 00:01 · postponed, not graded

50% The market–

Us50%

We make Lucchese a 50% chance to win. The model expects 1.8–1.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Lucchese v Sestri Levante~~1.75 – 1.18

~~Form · Coppa Italia Serie D this season · since 7 Oct~~W0 D1 L0 · W1 D0 L0

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Lucchese win	50%	–	–
Draw	24%	–	–
Sestri Levante win	25%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	56%	–	–
Both teams to score	58%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	79%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	34%	–	–
Lucchese or draw	75%	–	–
Lucchese clean sheet	31%	–	–
Sestri Levante clean sheet	17%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.4%

0123450 5.7 5.9 3.7 1 9.0 11.4 6.5 2.6 2 8.2 9.6 5.7 2.2 3 4.8 5.6 3.3 4 2.1 2.5 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Lucchese down, Sestri Levante across0–5 goals a side shown (98.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates the clubs of 637 leagues on one scale, from the 408,373 league, cup and continental matches of the last three years up to 21 Oct 2026: each club against its own league, and the leagues against each other through the matches between them, weighting recent matches more.

The two leagues

Lucchese play in Serie D - Girone E, Sestri Levante in Serie D - Girone A.

Venue

Allows for home advantage: Lucchese are at home.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 1.83 goals a meeting; 2 of 6 went over 2.5.

What the model expects

1.75 goals for Lucchese, 1.18 for Sestri Levante. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~1.83

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 6

~~Both scored~~3 of 6

~~Last meetings~~LUC 1–0 SES · SES 2–1 LUC · SES 1–1 LUC · LUC 0–0 SES

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Coppa Italia Serie D this season · since 7 Oct

LUCCHESE

D1–1

SESTRI LEVANTE

W1–0

Lucchese v Sestri Levante

The match pulse

AI match analysis

Pre-match prediction

Match timeline

Line-ups

Rest & schedule

Lucchese

Sestri Levante

The game in numbers

Line-ups

Match statistics

Line-ups

What the number rests on

Head to head

Form · Coppa Italia Serie D this season · since 7 Oct