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Model 1.2

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Leon v Pro Patria

Leon
13:30Upcoming
Pro Patria

Coppa Italia Serie D · WED 28 OCT

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

LeonDrawPro Patria
Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 13:30
Before kick-off · Match result · Leon 44%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Leon are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Leon 44%, draw 28%, Pro Patria 28%. Over 2.5 goals 43%, both teams to score 48%.

The AI’s read on Leon v Pro PatriaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Leon win44%
Draw28%
Pro Patria win28%

Kick-offWED 28 OCT · 13:30

RoundRound of 32

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Leon

Pro Patria

10Days since last match10

Last match: 18 Oct · Serie D - Girone B

Last match: 18 Oct · Serie D - Girone D

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · leon winFirst published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off
44% The market–
Us44%

We make Leon a 44% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–1.0, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Leon v Pro Patria1.36 – 1.02
Form · Coppa Italia Serie D this season · since 7 OctW1 D0 L0 · W1 D0 L0

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Leon win44%––
Draw28%––
Pro Patria win28%––
Over 2.5 goals43%––
Both teams to score48%––
Over 1.5 goals69%––
Over 3.5 goals22%––
Leon or draw72%––
Leon clean sheet36%––
Pro Patria clean sheet26%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.3%
0123450 9.7 9.0 4.8 1 12.1 13.3 6.6 2.2 2 8.5 8.7 4.5 3 3.9 4.0 2.0 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Leon down, Pro Patria across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Coppa Italia Serie D this season · since 7 Oct

LEON

W2–0

PRO PATRIA

W5–2