Gelbison v Igea Virtus prediction · Coppa Italia Serie D

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

GelbisonDrawIgea Virtus

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 13:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Gelbison 49%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Gelbison are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Gelbison 49%, draw 25%, Igea Virtus 26%. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 55%.

The AI’s read on Gelbison v Igea VirtusBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Gelbison win49%

Draw25%

Igea Virtus win26%

Kick-offWED 28 OCT · 13:30

RoundRound of 32

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Gelbison

Igea Virtus

10Days since last match10

Last match: 18 Oct · Serie D - Girone G

Last match: 18 Oct · Serie D - Girone I

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · gelbison winFirst published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

49% The market–

Us49%

We make Gelbison a 49% chance to win. The model expects 1.7–1.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Gelbison v Igea Virtus~~1.68 – 1.16

~~Form · Coppa Italia Serie D this season · since 7 Oct~~W0 D1 L0 · W1 D0 L0

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Gelbison win	49%	–	–
Draw	25%	–	–
Igea Virtus win	26%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	53%	–	–
Both teams to score	55%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	77%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	32%	–	–
Gelbison or draw	74%	–	–
Gelbison clean sheet	32%	–	–
Igea Virtus clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.4%

0123450 6.8 6.7 4.0 1 9.8 11.4 6.3 2.5 2 8.2 9.0 5.2 2.0 3 4.6 5.1 2.9 4 2.0 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Gelbison down, Igea Virtus across0–5 goals a side shown (98.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,659 Serie D - Girone I matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Serie D - Girone I matches have gone over 2.5 in 47.9% of games this season, across 71 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2023/24 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Gelbison at home: 1.50 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Igea Virtus away: 1.33 scored, 2.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.68 goals for Gelbison, 1.16 for Igea Virtus. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2023/24

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~GEL 1–1 IGE · IGE 1–1 GEL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Coppa Italia Serie D this season · since 7 Oct

GELBISON

D2–2

IGEA VIRTUS

W3–2

Gelbison v Igea Virtus

The match pulse

AI match analysis

Pre-match prediction

Match timeline

Line-ups

Rest & schedule

Gelbison

Igea Virtus

The game in numbers

Line-ups

Match statistics

Line-ups

What the number rests on

Head to head

Form · Coppa Italia Serie D this season · since 7 Oct