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Model 1.2

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Union Brescia v Cittadella

Union Brescia
19:30Upcoming
Cittadella

Coppa Italia Serie C · WED 28 OCT · Stadio Mario Rigamonti

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Union BresciaDrawCittadella
Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 19:30
Before kick-off · Match result · Union Brescia 44%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Union Brescia are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Union Brescia 44%, draw 30%, Cittadella 26%. Over 2.5 goals 37%, both teams to score 43%.

The AI’s read on Union Brescia v CittadellaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Union Brescia win44%
Draw30%
Cittadella win26%

Kick-offWED 28 OCT · 19:30

RoundRound of 16

VenueStadio Mario Rigamonti

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Union Brescia

Cittadella

4Days since last match4

Last match: 24 Oct · Serie C - Girone A

Last match: 24 Oct · Serie C - Girone A

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · union brescia winFirst published 22 Oct 00:01 · updated 25 Oct 00:29 · locked at kick-off
44% The market–
Us44%

We make Union Brescia a 44% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–0.9, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Union Brescia v Cittadella1.28 – 0.92
Form · Coppa Italia Serie C this season · since 15 AugW1 D0 L0 · W1 D1 L0

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
40%45%50% 22 OCT 00:0125 OCT 02:26
Our probability · Union Brescia win

Published at 43%, 44% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Union Brescia win44%––
Draw30%––
Cittadella win26%––
Over 2.5 goals37%––
Both teams to score43%––
Over 1.5 goals65%––
Over 3.5 goals18%––
Union Brescia or draw74%––
Union Brescia clean sheet40%––
Cittadella clean sheet28%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.7%
0123450 12.0 9.7 4.7 1 13.7 13.5 5.9 2 9.0 8.2 3.7 3 3.9 3.5 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Union Brescia down, Cittadella across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2025/26
Goals a meeting2.67
Over 2.52 of 3
Both scored3 of 3
Last meetingsUNI 2–1 CIT · UNI 2–1 CIT · CIT 1–1 UNI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Coppa Italia Serie C this season · since 15 Aug

UNION BRESCIA

W5–2

CITTADELLA

DW2–2 · 4–1