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Model 1.2

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Potenza v Bari

Potenza
19:30Upcoming
Bari

Coppa Italia Serie C · TUE 27 OCT · Stadio Comunale Alfredo Viviani

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

PotenzaDrawBari
Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 19:30
Before kick-off · Match result · Potenza 39%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Potenza are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Potenza 39%, draw 27%, Bari 34%. Over 2.5 goals 47%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on Potenza v BariBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 21 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Potenza win39%
Draw27%
Bari win34%

Kick-offTUE 27 OCT · 19:30

RoundRound of 16

VenueStadio Comunale Alfredo Viviani

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Potenza

Bari

4Days since last match4

Last match: 23 Oct · Serie C - Girone C

Last match: 23 Oct · Serie C - Girone C

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · potenza winFirst published 21 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off
39% The market–
Us39%

We make Potenza a 39% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–1.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Potenza v Bari1.33 – 1.24
Form · Coppa Italia Serie C this season · since 16 AugW0 D1 L0 · W1 D1 L0

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Potenza win39%––
Draw27%––
Bari win34%––
Over 2.5 goals47%––
Both teams to score53%––
Over 1.5 goals73%––
Over 3.5 goals26%––
Potenza or draw66%––
Potenza clean sheet29%––
Bari clean sheet26%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.0%
0123450 8.1 9.1 5.9 2.4 1 9.8 13.0 7.8 3.2 2 6.8 8.4 5.2 2.1 3 3.0 3.7 2.3 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Potenza down, Bari across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2021/22
Goals a meeting1.33
Over 2.50 of 3
Both scored1 of 3
Last meetingsBAR 0–0 POT · BAR 2–0 POT · POT 1–1 BAR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Coppa Italia Serie C this season · since 16 Aug

POTENZA

D1–1

BARI

WD1–0 · 1–1