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Model 1.2

Home › Football › Coppa Italia Serie C › Dolomiti Bellunesi v Desenzano Calvina

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Dolomiti Bellunesi v Desenzano Calvina

Dolomiti Bellunesi
17:00Upcoming
Desenzano Calvina

Coppa Italia Serie C · WED 28 OCT · Zugni Tauro

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Dolomiti BellunesiDrawDesenzano Calvina
Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 17:00
Before kick-off · Match result · Desenzano Calvina 44%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Desenzano Calvina are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Dolomiti Bellunesi 27%, draw 30%, Desenzano Calvina 44%. Over 2.5 goals 37%, both teams to score 43%.

The AI’s read on Dolomiti Bellunesi v Desenzano CalvinaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Dolomiti Bellunesi win27%
Draw30%
Desenzano Calvina win44%

Kick-offWED 28 OCT · 17:00

RoundRound of 16

VenueZugni Tauro

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Dolomiti Bellunesi

Desenzano Calvina

4Days since last match10

Last match: 24 Oct · Serie C - Girone A

Last match: 18 Oct · Serie C - Girone A

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · desenzano calvina winFirst published 22 Oct 00:01 · updated 24 Oct 04:26 · locked at kick-off
44% The market–
Us44%

We make Desenzano Calvina a 44% chance to win. The model expects 0.9–1.3, and 0–1 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Dolomiti Bellunesi v Desenzano Calvina0.91 – 1.25
Form · Coppa Italia Serie C this season · since 16 AugW1 D1 L0 · W1 D1 L0

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
10%20%30%40%50% 22 OCT 00:0125 OCT 03:22
Our probability · Desenzano Calvina win

Published at 17%, 44% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Dolomiti Bellunesi win27%––
Draw30%––
Desenzano Calvina win44%––
Over 2.5 goals37%––
Both teams to score43%––
Over 1.5 goals64%––
Over 3.5 goals17%––
Dolomiti Bellunesi or draw56%––
Dolomiti Bellunesi clean sheet29%––
Desenzano Calvina clean sheet40%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 14.0%
0123450 11.9 14.0 9.0 3.8 1 10.0 13.6 8.2 3.4 2 4.8 6.0 3.7 3 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Dolomiti Bellunesi down, Desenzano Calvina across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2021/22
Goals a meeting2.00
Over 2.50 of 1
Both scored0 of 1
Last meetingsDES 2–0 DOL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Coppa Italia Serie C this season · since 16 Aug

DOLOMITI BELLUNESI

WD1–0 · 2–2

DESENZANO CALVINA

DW0–0 · 1–0