Athletic Carpi v Ravenna prediction · Coppa Italia Serie C

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Athletic CarpiDrawRavenna

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 19:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Ravenna 48%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Ravenna are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Athletic Carpi 22%, draw 29%, Ravenna 48%. Over 2.5 goals 41%, both teams to score 45%.

The AI’s read on Athletic Carpi v RavennaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Athletic Carpi win22%

Draw29%

Ravenna win48%

Kick-offWED 28 OCT · 19:30

RoundRound of 16

VenueStadio Sandro Cabassi

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Athletic Carpi

Ravenna

4Days since last match4

Last match: 24 Oct · Serie C - Girone A

Last match: 24 Oct · Serie C - Girone B

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · ravenna winFirst published 22 Oct 00:01 · updated 25 Oct 00:29 · locked at kick-off

48% The market–

Us48%

We make Ravenna a 48% chance to win. The model expects 0.9–1.4, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Athletic Carpi v Ravenna~~0.88 – 1.43

~~Form · Coppa Italia Serie C this season · since 15 Aug~~W1 D1 L0 · W1 D0 L0

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Ravenna win

Published at 46%, 48% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Athletic Carpi win	22%	–	–
Draw	29%	–	–
Ravenna win	48%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	41%	–	–
Both teams to score	45%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	68%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	20%	–	–
Athletic Carpi or draw	52%	–	–
Athletic Carpi clean sheet	25%	–	–
Ravenna clean sheet	42%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.3%

0123450 11.4 13.1 10.0 4.8 1 7.8 13.3 8.6 4.2 2 3.9 5.4 3.8 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Athletic Carpi down, Ravenna across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,983 Serie C - Girone B matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Serie C - Girone B matches have gone over 2.5 in 45.3% of games this season, across 106 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 9 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.78 goals a meeting; 7 of 9 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Athletic Carpi at home: 1.00 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Ravenna away: 1.50 scored, 0.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.88 goals for Athletic Carpi, 1.43 for Ravenna. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

9 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.78

~~Over 2.5~~7 of 9

~~Both scored~~5 of 9

~~Last meetings~~RAV 1–0 ATH · ATH 1–2 RAV · ATH 1–0 RAV · RAV 3–0 ATH

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Coppa Italia Serie C this season · since 15 Aug

ATHLETIC CARPI

WD3–2 · 1–1

RAVENNA

W2–1

Athletic Carpi v Ravenna

The match pulse

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Pre-match prediction

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Rest & schedule

Athletic Carpi

Ravenna

The game in numbers

Line-ups

Match statistics

Line-ups

What the number rests on

Head to head

Form · Coppa Italia Serie C this season · since 15 Aug