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Spezia U19 v Monopoli U19

Spezia U19

0–2Full time

Monopoli U19

Campionato Primavera - 2 · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 16:30

Spezia U19 0–2 Monopoli U19 SPEZIA U19 WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Spezia U19 win~~58%

~~The market said~~51%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~1.016

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.888

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 10 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Spezia U19 win at 58%.
1′KICK-OFF Spezia U19 v Monopoli U19
5′Little has changed for our model: Spezia U19 58% before kick-off, 57% now. 0–0 · 57–22–20
12′⚽ GOAL · 12' Spezia U19 0–1 Monopoli U19
27′A goal for Monopoli U19 on 12′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 26–26–48
27′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 27' Spezia U19 win: 58% at kick-off, 26% now
27′THE CALL SWINGS · 27' Monopoli U19 win is now our likeliest result at 48% (was Spezia U19 win 26%)
44′⚽ GOAL · 12' Spezia U19 0–1 Monopoli U19
45′We said Spezia U19 at 58%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 18%. 0–1 · 18–28–54
45′HALF-TIME Spezia U19 0–1 Monopoli U19
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Spezia U19 win: 58% at kick-off, 18% now
46′SECOND HALF Spezia U19 0–1 Monopoli U19
57′We said Spezia U19 at 58%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 12%. 0–1 · 12–27–60
90′⚽ GOAL · 92' Spezia U19 0–2 Monopoli U19
FTFULL TIME Spezia U19 0–2 Monopoli U19
FTSpezia U19 0–2 Monopoli U19 · Spezia U19 win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Spezia U19 win58%

Draw22%

Monopoli U19 win20%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 14:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · spezia u19 winPublished 10 Oct 13:47

58% The market51%

Us58%

~~Market~~51%

We make Spezia U19 a 58% chance to win. The market has them at 51%. We are 6 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.0–1.1.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · spezia u19 win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 51% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Spezia U19 win	58%	51%	+6
Draw	22%	24%	−2
Monopoli U19 win	20%	25%	−4
Over 2.5 goals	60%	56%	+4
Both teams to score	58%	58%	0
Over 1.5 goals	82%	78%	+4
Over 3.5 goals	38%	37%	+1
Spezia U19 or draw	80%	75%	+4
Spezia U19 clean sheet	33%	–	–
Monopoli U19 clean sheet	14%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.2%

0123450 5.1 4.5 2.8 1 8.4 10.2 5.4 2.0 2 8.8 9.6 5.3 2.0 3 5.9 6.4 3.6 4 3.1 3.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Spezia U19 down, Monopoli U19 across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,338 Campionato Primavera - 2 matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Campionato Primavera - 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 79.2% of games this season, across 48 played.

Head to head

8 previous meetings, 3.88 goals a meeting; 6 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Spezia U19 at home: 2.33 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Monopoli U19 away: 2.00 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.02 goals for Spezia U19, 1.11 for Monopoli U19. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~3.88

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 8

~~Both scored~~4 of 8

~~Last meetings~~MON 0–2 SPE · SPE 6–0 MON · SPE 1–1 MON · MON 1–3 SPE

Form · last six in Campionato Primavera - 2

SPEZIA U19

LWLDLW0–1 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 2–3 · 3–0

MONOPOLI U19

DLDWLD0–0 · 0–3 · 1–1 · 4–0 · 0–3 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Perugia U19	3	+10	9
2	Catanzaro U19	3	+9	9
3	Avellino U19	3	+5	9
4	Bari U19	3	+5	7
5	Renate U19	3	+5	7
6	Vicenza U19	3	+5	7
7	Palermo U19	3	+3	7
8	Benevento U19	3	+6	6
9	Cremonese U19	3	+3	6
10	Virtus Entella U19	3	+3	6
11	Padova U19	3	+2	6
12	Mantova U19	3	+3	5
13	Sampdoria U19	3	+2	5
14	Modena U19	3	+2	4
15	Spezia U19	3	+2	4
16	Venezia U19	3	+1	4
17	Monopoli U19	3	+1	4
18	Brescia U19	3	0	4
19	Pescara U19	3	0	4
20	Latina U19	3	−1	3
21	Cittadella U19	3	−2	3
22	Pisa U19	3	−3	3
23	Udinese U19	3	−5	3
24	Ascoli U19	3	−1	2
25	Sudtirol U19	3	−3	2
26	Napoli U19	3	−3	1
27	Reggiana U19	3	−3	1
28	Pro Vercelli U19	3	−6	1
29	Lecco U19	3	−7	1
30	Frosinone U19	3	−10	0
31	Cosenza U19	3	−10	0
32	Salernitana U19	3	−13	0