Spezia U19 v Latina U19 prediction · Campionato Primavera

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 12:44

Spezia U19 1–5 Latina U19 SPEZIA U19 WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Spezia U19 win~~48%

~~The market said~~53%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.802

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.928

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay15 notes · 16 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Spezia U19 win at 48%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Spezia U19 48% before kick-off, 48% now. 0–0 · 48–24–28
1′KICK-OFF Spezia U19 v Latina U19
10′A goal for Spezia U19 on 9′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 72–16–12
10′We said Spezia U19 at 48% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 72%. 1–0 · 72–16–12
10′⚽ GOAL · 9' Spezia U19 1–0 Latina U19
10′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 10' Spezia U19 win: 48% at kick-off, 72% now
14′Latina U19 score on 13′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 46–26–28
14′⚽ GOAL · 13' Spezia U19 1–1 Latina U19
14′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 14' Spezia U19 win: 48% at kick-off, 46% now
23′Latina U19 find the net on 23′. 1–2. 1–2 · 21–23–56
23′⚽ GOAL · 23' Spezia U19 1–2 Latina U19
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 23' Spezia U19 win: 48% at kick-off, 21% now
23′THE CALL SWINGS · 23' Latina U19 win is now our likeliest result at 56% (was Spezia U19 win 21%)
24′We said Spezia U19 at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 21%. 1–2 · 21–23–56
28′We said Spezia U19 at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 1–2 · 19–24–57
32′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 32' Spezia U19 win: 48% at kick-off, 18% now
44′We said Spezia U19 at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–2 · 14–25–61
45′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.1 across ninety minutes. 1–3 · 4–10–86
45′HALF-TIME Spezia U19 1–3 Latina U19
46′A goal for Latina U19 on 45′ — 1–3. 1–3 · 4–10–86
46′⚽ GOAL · 45+1' Spezia U19 1–3 Latina U19
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+1' Spezia U19 win: 48% at kick-off, 4% now
46′SECOND HALF Spezia U19 1–3 Latina U19
47′We said Spezia U19 at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 3%. 1–3 · 3–10–87
81′Latina U19 score on 81′ to make it 1–4. 1–4 · 0–0–100
81′⚽ GOAL · 81' Spezia U19 1–4 Latina U19
82′5 goals already, more than the 3.1 we expected for the whole match. 1–4 · 0–0–100
83′Latina U19 find the net on 83′. 1–5. 1–5 · 0–0–100
83′⚽ GOAL · 83' Spezia U19 1–5 Latina U19
84′That is 6, and we only asked for 3.1 across ninety minutes. 1–5 · 0–0–100
FTFULL TIME Spezia U19 1–5 Latina U19
FTSpezia U19 1–5 Latina U19 · Spezia U19 win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Spezia U19 are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Spezia U19 48%, draw 24%, Latina U19 28%. Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 60%.

The AI’s read on Spezia U19 v Latina U19Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Spezia U19 win48%

Draw24%

Latina U19 win28%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 10:00

RoundMatchday 5

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Spezia U19

Latina U19

7Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · Campionato Primavera - 2

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Spezia U19	4	0	4
10	Latina U19	4	−1	4

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · spezia u19 winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

48% The market53%

Us48%

~~Market~~53%

We make Spezia U19 a 48% chance to win. The market has them at 53%. We are 5 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.8–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Spezia U19 v Latina U19~~1.77 – 1.31

~~Form · Campionato Primavera - 2 this season · since 5 Sept~~W1 D1 L2 · W1 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 4 v 4~~9 v 10

~~The market · Spezia U19 win~~53% · ours 48%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Spezia U19 win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 53% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Spezia U19 win	48%	53%	−5
Draw	24%	24%	0
Latina U19 win	28%	23%	+5
Over 2.5 goals	59%	57%	+2
Both teams to score	60%	57%	+3
Over 1.5 goals	81%	78%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	37%	36%	+1
Spezia U19 or draw	72%	77%	−5
Spezia U19 clean sheet	28%	–	–
Latina U19 clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 3 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.0%

0123450 5.5 5.7 4.0 1 7.8 11.0 6.8 3.0 2 7.2 9.0 5.8 2.6 3 4.3 5.4 3.5 4 2.4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Spezia U19 down, Latina U19 across0–5 goals a side shown (98.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,354 Campionato Primavera - 2 matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Campionato Primavera - 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 68.8% of games this season, across 64 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Spezia U19 at home: 1.83 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Latina U19 away: 0.50 scored, 2.50 conceded (last 2).

What the model expects

1.77 goals for Spezia U19, 1.31 for Latina U19. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Campionato Primavera - 2 this season · since 5 Sept

SPEZIA U19

DLWL1–1 · 2–3 · 3–0 · 0–2

LATINA U19

LWLD0–2 · 4–1 · 1–3 · 0–0

The table

2026/27 · group 2

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Catanzaro U19	4	+11	12
2	Perugia U19	4	+11	12
3	Benevento U19	4	+9	9
4	Avellino U19	4	+4	9
5	Bari U19	4	+5	8
6	Palermo U19	4	+3	8
7	Pescara U19	4	+3	7
8	Monopoli U19	4	+3	7
9	Spezia U19	4	0	4
10	Latina U19	4	−1	4
11	Napoli U19	4	−2	4
12	Pisa U19	4	−4	3
13	Ascoli U19	4	−4	2
14	Frosinone U19	4	−10	1
15	Cosenza U19	4	−12	0
16	Salernitana U19	4	−16	0