Sampdoria U19 v Brescia U19 prediction · Campionato Primavera

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 17:28

Sampdoria U19 5–1 Brescia U19 SAMPDORIA U19 WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Sampdoria U19 win~~58%

~~The market said~~56%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.264

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.285

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay17 notes · 13 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Sampdoria U19 win at 58%.
1′Much as we predicted: Sampdoria U19 was 58% before kick-off and our model makes it 58% now. 0–0 · 58–21–21
1′KICK-OFF Sampdoria U19 v Brescia U19
24′Sampdoria U19 find the net on 23′. 1–0. 1–0 · 79–14–7
24′We published Sampdoria U19 at 58%. Our model now makes it 79%. 1–0 · 79–14–7
24′⚽ GOAL · 23' Sampdoria U19 1–0 Brescia U19
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 24' Sampdoria U19 win: 58% at kick-off, 79% now
30′Goals are coming at about the 3.4 we expected. 1–0 · 79–14–7
43′A goal for Sampdoria U19 on 43′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 94–4–1
43′We published Sampdoria U19 at 58%. Our model now makes it 94%. 2–0 · 94–4–1
43′⚽ GOAL · 43' Sampdoria U19 2–0 Brescia U19
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 43' Sampdoria U19 win: 58% at kick-off, 94% now
44′We published Sampdoria U19 at 58%. Our model now makes it 95%. 2–0 · 95–4–1
45′Sampdoria U19 score on 45′ to make it 3–0. 3–0 · 99–1–0
45′⚽ GOAL · 45' Sampdoria U19 3–0 Brescia U19
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Sampdoria U19 win: 58% at kick-off, 99% now
45′HALF-TIME Sampdoria U19 3–0 Brescia U19
46′SECOND HALF Sampdoria U19 3–0 Brescia U19
51′Sampdoria U19 score on 45′ to make it 3–0. 3–0 · 99–1–0
51′We published Sampdoria U19 at 58%. Our model now makes it 99%. 3–0 · 99–1–0
59′We published Sampdoria U19 at 58%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
64′Sampdoria U19 find the net on 64′. 4–0. 4–0 · 100–0–0
64′⚽ GOAL · 64' Sampdoria U19 4–0 Brescia U19
65′4 goals already, more than the 3.4 we expected for the whole match. 4–0 · 100–0–0
79′A goal for Sampdoria U19 on 79′ — 5–0. 5–0 · 100–0–0
79′That is 5, and we only asked for 3.4 across ninety minutes. 5–0 · 100–0–0
79′⚽ GOAL · 79' Sampdoria U19 5–0 Brescia U19
85′Brescia U19 score on 85′ to make it 5–1. 5–1 · 100–0–0
85′⚽ GOAL · 85' Sampdoria U19 5–1 Brescia U19
86′6 goals already, more than the 3.4 we expected for the whole match. 5–1 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Sampdoria U19 5–1 Brescia U19
FTSampdoria U19 5–1 Brescia U19 · Sampdoria U19 win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Sampdoria U19 are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Sampdoria U19 58%, draw 21%, Brescia U19 21%. Over 2.5 goals 65%, both teams to score 62%.

The AI’s read on Sampdoria U19 v Brescia U19Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Sampdoria U19 win58%

Draw21%

Brescia U19 win21%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 14:00

RoundMatchday 5

VenueCampo Sportivo Tre Campanili

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Sampdoria U19

Brescia U19

7Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · Campionato Primavera - 2

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Sampdoria U19	4	+6	8
5	Brescia U19	4	+1	7

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · sampdoria u19 winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

58% The market56%

Us58%

~~Market~~56%

We make Sampdoria U19 a 58% chance to win. The market has them at 56%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 2.2–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Sampdoria U19 v Brescia U19~~2.17 – 1.23

~~Form · Campionato Primavera - 2 this season · since 5 Sept~~W2 D2 L0 · W2 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 8 v 7~~2 v 5

~~The market · Sampdoria U19 win~~56% · ours 58%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Sampdoria U19 win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 56% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Sampdoria U19 win	58%	56%	+2
Draw	21%	23%	−2
Brescia U19 win	21%	21%	0
Over 2.5 goals	65%	61%	+4
Both teams to score	62%	60%	+2
Over 1.5 goals	85%	81%	+4
Over 3.5 goals	44%	40%	+4
Sampdoria U19 or draw	79%	79%	0
Sampdoria U19 clean sheet	30%	–	–
Brescia U19 clean sheet	12%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 3 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 9.4%

0123450 4.1 3.8 2.6 1 7.0 9.3 5.4 2.3 2 7.8 9.4 5.7 2.4 3 5.6 6.7 4.1 4 3.1 3.7 2.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Sampdoria U19 down, Brescia U19 across0–5 goals a side shown (97.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,354 Campionato Primavera - 2 matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Campionato Primavera - 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 68.8% of games this season, across 64 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 1.50 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Sampdoria U19 at home: 2.17 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Brescia U19 away: 1.00 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.17 goals for Sampdoria U19, 1.23 for Brescia U19. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~1.50

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~0 of 2

~~Last meetings~~BRE 0–2 SAM · SAM 0–1 BRE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Campionato Primavera - 2 this season · since 5 Sept

SAMPDORIA U19

DWDW0–0 · 3–1 · 4–4 · 4–0

BRESCIA U19

LWDW1–3 · 4–2 · 1–1 · 2–1

The table

2026/27 · group 1

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Vicenza U19	4	+7	10
2	Sampdoria U19	4	+6	8
3	Renate U19	4	+5	8
4	Virtus Entella U19	4	+3	7
5	Brescia U19	4	+1	7
6	Mantova U19	4	+3	6
7	Cremonese U19	4	+2	6
8	Padova U19	4	−2	6
9	Udinese U19	4	−4	6
10	Modena U19	4	+1	4
11	Venezia U19	4	0	4
12	Cittadella U19	4	−2	4
13	Lecco U19	4	−6	4
14	Sudtirol U19	4	−3	3
15	Pro Vercelli U19	4	−6	2
16	Reggiana U19	4	−5	1