Salernitana U19 v Palermo U19 prediction · Campionato Primavera

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 15:38

Salernitana U19 1–2 Palermo U19 PALERMO U19 WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Palermo U19 win~~51%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.366

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 22 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Palermo U19 win at 51%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Palermo U19 51% before kick-off, 50% now. 0–0 · 25–25–50
1′KICK-OFF Salernitana U19 v Palermo U19
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Palermo U19 win: 51% at kick-off, 41% now
44′Salernitana U19 find the net on 44′. 1–0. 1–0 · 59–26–15
44′⚽ GOAL · 44' Salernitana U19 1–0 Palermo U19
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Palermo U19 win: 51% at kick-off, 15% now
44′THE CALL SWINGS · 44' Salernitana U19 win is now our likeliest result at 59% (was Palermo U19 win 41%)
45′We said Palermo U19 at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–0 · 60–26–14
45′HALF-TIME Salernitana U19 0–0 Palermo U19
45′GOAL DISALLOWED · 45' Salernitana U19
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Palermo U19 win: 51% at kick-off, 40% now
46′SECOND HALF Salernitana U19 0–0 Palermo U19
53′THE CALL SWINGS · 53' Draw is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Salernitana U19 win 60%)
55′Goalless on 55′ when we expected about 2.9 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 21–43–36
58′We said Palermo U19 at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 20–46–34
62′Salernitana U19 find the net on 62′. 1–0. 1–0 · 68–24–8
62′We said Palermo U19 at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 8%. 1–0 · 68–24–8
62′⚽ GOAL · 62' Salernitana U19 1–0 Palermo U19
62′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 62' Palermo U19 win: 51% at kick-off, 8% now
62′THE CALL SWINGS · 62' Salernitana U19 win is now our likeliest result at 68% (was Draw 48%)
71′We said Palermo U19 at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–0 · 75–21–4
78′Salernitana U19 are down to ten from 78′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 1–0 · 82–16–2
78′🟥 RED CARD · 78' Salernitana U19
81′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 81' Palermo U19 win: 51% at kick-off, 1% now
86′A second red card for Salernitana U19 on 85′ — they are down to nine. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 1–0 · 91–8–0
86′🟥 RED CARD · 85' Salernitana U19
92′A goal for Palermo U19 on 90′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 2–94–4
92′⚽ GOAL · 90+2' Salernitana U19 1–1 Palermo U19
92′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+2' Draw is now our likeliest result at 94% (was Salernitana U19 win 95%)
95′Palermo U19 score on 90′ to make it 1–2. 1–2 · 0–1–99
95′We said Palermo U19 at 51% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 99%. 1–2 · 0–1–99
95′3 goals already, more than the 2.9 we expected for the whole match. 1–2 · 0–1–99
95′⚽ GOAL · 90+5' Salernitana U19 1–2 Palermo U19
95′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+5' Palermo U19 win: 51% at kick-off, 99% now
95′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+5' Palermo U19 win is now our likeliest result at 99% (was Draw 97%)
FTFULL TIME Salernitana U19 1–2 Palermo U19
FTSalernitana U19 1–2 Palermo U19 · Palermo U19 win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Palermo U19 are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Salernitana U19 25%, draw 25%, Palermo U19 51%. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 56%.

The AI’s read on Salernitana U19 v Palermo U19Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Salernitana U19 win25%

Draw25%

Palermo U19 win51%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 6

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Salernitana U19

Palermo U19

7Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · Campionato Primavera - 2

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Palermo U19	5	+4	11
15	Salernitana U19	5	−16	1

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · palermo u19 winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

51% The market–

Us51%

We make Palermo U19 a 51% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–1.8, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Salernitana U19 v Palermo U19~~1.15 – 1.75

~~Form · Campionato Primavera - 2 this season · since 5 Sept~~W0 D1 L4 · W3 D2 L0

~~Table places · points 1 v 11~~15 v 3

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Salernitana U19 win	25%	–	–
Draw	25%	–	–
Palermo U19 win	51%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	55%	–	–
Both teams to score	56%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	79%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	33%	–	–
Salernitana U19 or draw	49%	–	–
Salernitana U19 clean sheet	18%	–	–
Palermo U19 clean sheet	32%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.4%

0123450 6.3 9.1 8.3 4.9 2.2 1 5.9 11.4 9.3 5.5 2.5 2 3.7 6.3 5.4 3.1 3 2.5 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Salernitana U19 down, Palermo U19 across0–5 goals a side shown (98.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,370 Campionato Primavera - 2 matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Campionato Primavera - 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 70.0% of games this season, across 80 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2023/24 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Salernitana U19 at home: 0.50 scored, 3.17 conceded a game (last 6). Palermo U19 away: 1.00 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.15 goals for Salernitana U19, 1.75 for Palermo U19. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2023/24

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 6

~~Both scored~~3 of 6

~~Last meetings~~SAL 1–1 PAL · PAL 0–2 SAL · SAL 4–2 PAL · PAL 4–2 SAL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Campionato Primavera - 2 this season · since 5 Sept

SALERNITANA U19

LLLLD0–4 · 1–4 · 0–6 · 0–3 · 3–3

PALERMO U19

WWDDW3–1 · 3–2 · 2–2 · 0–0 · 1–0

The table

2026/27 · Primavera 2 U19 · group 2

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Catanzaro U19	5	+12	15
2	Perugia U19	5	+10	12
3	Palermo U19	5	+4	11
4	Benevento U19	5	+9	10
5	Bari U19	5	+5	9
6	Avellino U19	5	+3	9
7	Pescara U19	5	+3	8
8	Monopoli U19	5	+3	8
9	Latina U19	5	+3	7
10	Pisa U19	5	−1	6
11	Napoli U19	5	−2	5
12	Spezia U19	5	−4	4
13	Frosinone U19	5	−9	4
14	Ascoli U19	5	−7	2
15	Salernitana U19	5	−16	1
16	Cosenza U19	5	−13	0