Pisa U19 v Ascoli U19 prediction · Campionato Primavera

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 13:56

Pisa U19 4–1 Ascoli U19 PISA U19 WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Pisa U19 win~~48%

~~The market said~~44%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.409

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.465

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 14 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Pisa U19 win at 48%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Pisa U19 48% before kick-off, 48% now. 0–0 · 48–23–30
1′KICK-OFF Pisa U19 v Ascoli U19
4′Pisa U19 find the net on 4′. 1–0. 1–0 · 71–16–14
4′⚽ GOAL · 4' Pisa U19 1–0 Ascoli U19
4′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 4' Pisa U19 win: 48% at kick-off, 71% now
5′We said Pisa U19 at 48% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 71%. 1–0 · 71–16–14
30′The goal count is tracking the 3.5 we expected. 1–0 · 71–18–11
31′A goal for Pisa U19 on 31′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 89–8–3
31′⚽ GOAL · 31' Pisa U19 2–0 Ascoli U19
31′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 31' Pisa U19 win: 48% at kick-off, 89% now
32′We said Pisa U19 at 48% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 2–0 · 90–8–3
43′Pisa U19 score on 43′ to make it 3–0. 3–0 · 98–2–0
43′We said Pisa U19 at 48% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 98%. 3–0 · 98–2–0
43′⚽ GOAL · 43' Pisa U19 3–0 Ascoli U19
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 43' Pisa U19 win: 48% at kick-off, 98% now
45′Ascoli U19 find the net on 45′. 3–1. 3–1 · 92–6–2
45′⚽ GOAL · 45' Pisa U19 3–1 Ascoli U19
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Pisa U19 win: 48% at kick-off, 92% now
45′HALF-TIME Pisa U19 3–1 Ascoli U19
46′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.5 across ninety minutes. 3–1 · 92–6–2
46′SECOND HALF Pisa U19 3–1 Ascoli U19
73′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 73' Pisa U19 win: 48% at kick-off, 98% now
75′A goal for Pisa U19 on 74′ — 4–1. 4–1 · 100–0–0
75′We said Pisa U19 at 48% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 4–1 · 100–0–0
75′5 goals already, more than the 3.5 we expected for the whole match. 4–1 · 100–0–0
75′⚽ GOAL · 74' Pisa U19 4–1 Ascoli U19
FTFULL TIME Pisa U19 4–1 Ascoli U19
FTPisa U19 4–1 Ascoli U19 · Pisa U19 win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Pisa U19 are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Pisa U19 48%, draw 23%, Ascoli U19 30%. Over 2.5 goals 67%, both teams to score 67%.

The AI’s read on Pisa U19 v Ascoli U19Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Pisa U19 win48%

Draw23%

Ascoli U19 win30%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 11:00

RoundMatchday 5

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Pisa U19

Ascoli U19

7Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · Campionato Primavera - 2

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
12	Pisa U19	4	−4	3
13	Ascoli U19	4	−4	2

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · pisa u19 winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

48% The market44%

Us48%

~~Market~~44%

We make Pisa U19 a 48% chance to win. The market has them at 44%. We are 4 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.0–1.5.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Pisa U19 v Ascoli U19~~1.98 – 1.51

~~Form · Campionato Primavera - 2 this season · since 4 Sept~~W1 D0 L3 · W0 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 3 v 2~~12 v 13

~~The market · Pisa U19 win~~44% · ours 48%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Pisa U19 win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 44% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Pisa U19 win	48%	44%	+4
Draw	23%	26%	−3
Ascoli U19 win	30%	30%	0
Over 2.5 goals	67%	60%	+7
Both teams to score	67%	62%	+5
Over 1.5 goals	86%	80%	+6
Over 3.5 goals	46%	39%	+7
Pisa U19 or draw	70%	70%	0
Pisa U19 clean sheet	23%	–	–
Ascoli U19 clean sheet	15%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 2 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.5%

0123450 3.8 4.3 3.6 1 5.7 9.5 6.8 3.4 2 6.0 8.7 6.5 3.3 3 3.9 5.7 4.3 2.2 4 2.9 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Pisa U19 down, Ascoli U19 across0–5 goals a side shown (97.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,354 Campionato Primavera - 2 matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Campionato Primavera - 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 68.8% of games this season, across 64 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.90 goals a meeting; 5 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Pisa U19 at home: 1.83 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Ascoli U19 away: 1.67 scored, 2.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.98 goals for Pisa U19, 1.51 for Ascoli U19. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.90

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~PIS 3–2 ASC · ASC 1–1 PIS · PIS 3–1 ASC · ASC 4–2 PIS

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Campionato Primavera - 2 this season · since 4 Sept

PISA U19

LWLL2–3 · 3–2 · 0–3 · 0–1

ASCOLI U19

DLDL1–1 · 1–2 · 2–2 · 2–5

The table

2026/27 · group 2

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Catanzaro U19	4	+11	12
2	Perugia U19	4	+11	12
3	Benevento U19	4	+9	9
4	Avellino U19	4	+4	9
5	Bari U19	4	+5	8
6	Palermo U19	4	+3	8
7	Pescara U19	4	+3	7
8	Monopoli U19	4	+3	7
9	Spezia U19	4	0	4
10	Latina U19	4	−1	4
11	Napoli U19	4	−2	4
12	Pisa U19	4	−4	3
13	Ascoli U19	4	−4	2
14	Frosinone U19	4	−10	1
15	Cosenza U19	4	−12	0
16	Salernitana U19	4	−16	0