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Pescara U19 v Ascoli U19

Pescara U19

5–2Full time

Ascoli U19

Campionato Primavera - 2 · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 16:30

Pescara U19 5–2 Ascoli U19 PESCARA U19 WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Pescara U19 win~~46%

~~The market said~~42%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.432

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.505

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay5 notes · 18 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Pescara U19 win at 46%.
1′Much as we predicted: Pescara U19 was 46% before kick-off and our model makes it 47% now. 0–0 · 47–22–31
1′KICK-OFF Pescara U19 v Ascoli U19
5′⚽ GOAL · 3' Pescara U19 1–0 Ascoli U19
10′⚽ GOAL · 8' Pescara U19 2–0 Ascoli U19
22′8′ and it is 2–0: Pescara U19 have scored. 2–0 · 88–8–4
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 23' Pescara U19 win: 46% at kick-off, 88% now
28′⚽ GOAL · 28' Pescara U19 2–1 Ascoli U19
43′Ascoli U19 find the net on 28′. 2–1. 2–1 · 72–19–9
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 43' Pescara U19 win: 46% at kick-off, 72% now
45′⚽ GOAL · 3' Pescara U19 2–1 Ascoli U19
45′⚽ GOAL · 8' Pescara U19 2–1 Ascoli U19
45′⚽ GOAL · 28' Pescara U19 2–1 Ascoli U19
45′HALF-TIME Pescara U19 2–1 Ascoli U19
46′SECOND HALF Pescara U19 2–1 Ascoli U19
52′56′ and it is 2–2: Pescara U19 have scored. 2–2 · 36–37–26
52′⚽ GOAL · 50' Pescara U19 2–2 Ascoli U19
52′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 52' Pescara U19 win: 46% at kick-off, 36% now
56′⚽ GOAL · 56' Pescara U19 3–2 Ascoli U19
71′⚽ GOAL · 70' Pescara U19 4–2 Ascoli U19
74′A goal for Pescara U19 on 74′ — 4–2. 4–2 · 98–2–0
74′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 74' Pescara U19 win: 46% at kick-off, 98% now
76′⚽ GOAL · 74' Pescara U19 5–2 Ascoli U19
FTFULL TIME Pescara U19 5–2 Ascoli U19
FTPescara U19 5–2 Ascoli U19 · Pescara U19 win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Pescara U19 win46%

Draw23%

Ascoli U19 win31%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 14:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · pescara u19 winPublished 10 Oct 13:47

46% The market42%

Us46%

~~Market~~42%

We make Pescara U19 a 46% chance to win. The market has them at 42%. We are 4 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.9–1.5.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · pescara u19 win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 42% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Pescara U19 win	46%	42%	+4
Draw	23%	25%	−2
Ascoli U19 win	31%	33%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	66%	58%	+7
Both teams to score	66%	61%	+4
Over 1.5 goals	85%	77%	+9
Over 3.5 goals	44%	38%	+6
Pescara U19 or draw	69%	67%	+2
Pescara U19 clean sheet	23%	–	–
Ascoli U19 clean sheet	16%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.9%

0123450 4.0 4.7 3.8 1 6.0 9.9 7.0 3.5 2 6.0 8.8 6.5 3.3 3 3.8 5.5 4.1 2.1 4 2.7 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Pescara U19 down, Ascoli U19 across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,338 Campionato Primavera - 2 matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Campionato Primavera - 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 79.2% of games this season, across 48 played.

Head to head

8 previous meetings, 2.62 goals a meeting; 5 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Pescara U19 at home: 2.00 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Ascoli U19 away: 1.50 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.90 goals for Pescara U19, 1.51 for Ascoli U19. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2023

~~Goals a meeting~~2.62

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 8

~~Both scored~~4 of 8

~~Last meetings~~ASC 2–3 PES · PES 1–0 ASC · ASC 1–2 PES · PES 1–4 ASC

Form · last six in Campionato Primavera - 2

PESCARA U19

WDDLWD5–2 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 1–3 · 3–1 · 2–2

ASCOLI U19

LLLDLD2–3 · 2–3 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Perugia U19	3	+10	9
2	Catanzaro U19	3	+9	9
3	Avellino U19	3	+5	9
4	Bari U19	3	+5	7
5	Renate U19	3	+5	7
6	Vicenza U19	3	+5	7
7	Palermo U19	3	+3	7
8	Benevento U19	3	+6	6
9	Cremonese U19	3	+3	6
10	Virtus Entella U19	3	+3	6
11	Padova U19	3	+2	6
12	Mantova U19	3	+3	5
13	Sampdoria U19	3	+2	5
14	Modena U19	3	+2	4
15	Spezia U19	3	+2	4
16	Venezia U19	3	+1	4
17	Monopoli U19	3	+1	4
18	Brescia U19	3	0	4
19	Pescara U19	3	0	4
20	Latina U19	3	−1	3
21	Cittadella U19	3	−2	3
22	Pisa U19	3	−3	3
23	Udinese U19	3	−5	3
24	Ascoli U19	3	−1	2
25	Sudtirol U19	3	−3	2
26	Napoli U19	3	−3	1
27	Reggiana U19	3	−3	1
28	Pro Vercelli U19	3	−6	1
29	Lecco U19	3	−7	1
30	Frosinone U19	3	−10	0
31	Cosenza U19	3	−10	0
32	Salernitana U19	3	−13	0