Perugia U19 v Frosinone U19 prediction · Campionato Primavera

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 16:33

Perugia U19 5–0 Frosinone U19 PERUGIA U19 WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Perugia U19 win~~47%

~~The market said~~56%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.419

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.290

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay15 notes · 13 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Perugia U19 win at 47%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Perugia U19 47% before kick-off, 47% now. 0–0 · 47–25–28
1′KICK-OFF Perugia U19 v Frosinone U19
38′A goal for Perugia U19 on 37′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 74–18–8
38′We said Perugia U19 at 47% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 74%. 1–0 · 74–18–8
38′The goal count is tracking the 2.9 we expected. 1–0 · 74–18–8
38′⚽ GOAL · 37' Perugia U19 1–0 Frosinone U19
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 38' Perugia U19 win: 47% at kick-off, 74% now
39′We said Perugia U19 at 47% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 1–0 · 75–18–7
45′HALF-TIME Perugia U19 1–0 Frosinone U19
46′SECOND HALF Perugia U19 1–0 Frosinone U19
52′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 52' Perugia U19 win: 47% at kick-off, 77% now
57′PENALTY MISSED · 57' Perugia U19
63′We said Perugia U19 at 47% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–3
70′Perugia U19 score on 70′ to make it 2–0. 2–0 · 98–2–0
70′⚽ GOAL · 70' Perugia U19 2–0 Frosinone U19
70′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 70' Perugia U19 win: 47% at kick-off, 98% now
71′We said Perugia U19 at 47% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 98%. 2–0 · 98–2–0
75′Perugia U19 find the net on 75′. 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
75′We said Perugia U19 at 47% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
75′⚽ GOAL · 75' Perugia U19 3–0 Frosinone U19
76′3 goals already, more than the 2.9 we expected for the whole match. 3–0 · 100–0–0
83′A goal for Perugia U19 on 83′ — 4–0. 4–0 · 100–0–0
83′⚽ GOAL · 83' Perugia U19 4–0 Frosinone U19
84′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.9 across ninety minutes. 4–0 · 100–0–0
93′Perugia U19 score on 90′ to make it 5–0. 5–0 · 100–0–0
93′⚽ GOAL · 90+3' Perugia U19 5–0 Frosinone U19
94′5 goals already, more than the 2.9 we expected for the whole match. 5–0 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Perugia U19 5–0 Frosinone U19
FTPerugia U19 5–0 Frosinone U19 · Perugia U19 win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Perugia U19 are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Perugia U19 47%, draw 25%, Frosinone U19 28%. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 57%.

The AI’s read on Perugia U19 v Frosinone U19Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Perugia U19 win47%

Draw25%

Frosinone U19 win28%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 13:30

RoundMatchday 6

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Perugia U19

Frosinone U19

7Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · Campionato Primavera - 2

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Perugia U19	5	+10	12
13	Frosinone U19	5	−9	4

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · perugia u19 winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

47% The market56%

Us47%

~~Market~~56%

We make Perugia U19 a 47% chance to win. The market has them at 56%. We are 9 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Perugia U19 v Frosinone U19~~1.67 – 1.22

~~Form · Campionato Primavera - 2 this season · since 4 Sept~~W4 D0 L1 · W1 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 12 v 4~~2 v 13

~~The market · Perugia U19 win~~56% · ours 47%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Perugia U19 win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 56% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Perugia U19 win	47%	56%	−9
Draw	25%	24%	+1
Frosinone U19 win	28%	20%	+8
Over 2.5 goals	55%	56%	−1
Both teams to score	57%	55%	+2
Over 1.5 goals	78%	78%	0
Over 3.5 goals	33%	35%	−2
Perugia U19 or draw	72%	80%	−8
Perugia U19 clean sheet	30%	–	–
Frosinone U19 clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.7%

0123450 6.5 6.4 4.2 1 8.9 11.7 6.7 2.8 2 7.7 9.1 5.5 2.3 3 4.3 5.1 3.1 4 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Perugia U19 down, Frosinone U19 across0–5 goals a side shown (98.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,370 Campionato Primavera - 2 matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Campionato Primavera - 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 70.0% of games this season, across 80 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.25 goals a meeting; 3 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Perugia U19 at home: 2.17 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Frosinone U19 away: 0.83 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.67 goals for Perugia U19, 1.22 for Frosinone U19. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.25

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 4

~~Both scored~~3 of 4

~~Last meetings~~FRO 1–0 PER · PER 1–3 FRO · FRO 2–2 PER · PER 2–2 FRO

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Campionato Primavera - 2 this season · since 4 Sept

PERUGIA U19

WWWWL3–2 · 3–0 · 6–0 · 1–0 · 0–1

FROSINONE U19

LLLDW0–3 · 2–3 · 0–6 · 0–0 · 2–1

The table

2026/27 · Primavera 2 U19 · group 2

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Catanzaro U19	5	+12	15
2	Perugia U19	5	+10	12
3	Palermo U19	5	+4	11
4	Benevento U19	5	+9	10
5	Bari U19	5	+5	9
6	Avellino U19	5	+3	9
7	Pescara U19	5	+3	8
8	Monopoli U19	5	+3	8
9	Latina U19	5	+3	7
10	Pisa U19	5	−1	6
11	Napoli U19	5	−2	5
12	Spezia U19	5	−4	4
13	Frosinone U19	5	−9	4
14	Ascoli U19	5	−7	2
15	Salernitana U19	5	−16	1
16	Cosenza U19	5	−13	0