Palermo U19 v Perugia U19 prediction · Campionato Primavera

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 17:28

Palermo U19 1–0 Perugia U19 PERUGIA U19 WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Perugia U19 win~~40%

~~The market said~~43%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.692

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.728

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 15 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Perugia U19 win at 40%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Perugia U19 40% before kick-off, 40% now. 0–0 · 32–27–40
1′KICK-OFF Palermo U19 v Perugia U19
3′A goal for Palermo U19 on 3′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 60–21–19
3′⚽ GOAL · 3' Palermo U19 1–0 Perugia U19
3′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 3' Perugia U19 win: 40% at kick-off, 19% now
3′THE CALL SWINGS · 3' Palermo U19 win is now our likeliest result at 60% (was Perugia U19 win 19%)
4′We said Perugia U19 at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 1–0 · 60–21–19
4′GOAL DISALLOWED · 4' Palermo U19
4′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 4' Perugia U19 win: 40% at kick-off, 40% now
4′THE CALL SWINGS · 4' Perugia U19 win is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Palermo U19 win 32%)
10′A goal for Palermo U19 on 10′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 61–22–18
10′⚽ GOAL · 10' Palermo U19 1–0 Perugia U19
10′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 10' Perugia U19 win: 40% at kick-off, 18% now
10′THE CALL SWINGS · 10' Palermo U19 win is now our likeliest result at 61% (was Perugia U19 win 18%)
26′We said Perugia U19 at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–0 · 63–23–14
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.6 we expected. 1–0 · 64–23–14
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' Perugia U19 win: 40% at kick-off, 10% now
45′HALF-TIME Palermo U19 1–0 Perugia U19
46′SECOND HALF Palermo U19 1–0 Perugia U19
47′We said Perugia U19 at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–0 · 68–23–9
52′A goal for Palermo U19 on 10′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 70–22–8
53′We said Perugia U19 at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 8%. 1–0 · 70–22–8
65′We said Perugia U19 at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–0 · 76–20–4
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 84' Perugia U19 win: 40% at kick-off, under 1% now
FTFULL TIME Palermo U19 1–0 Perugia U19
FTPalermo U19 1–0 Perugia U19 · Perugia U19 win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Perugia U19 are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Palermo U19 32%, draw 27%, Perugia U19 40%. Over 2.5 goals 49%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on Palermo U19 v Perugia U19Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Palermo U19 win32%

Draw27%

Perugia U19 win40%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 14:00

RoundMatchday 5

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Palermo U19

Perugia U19

7Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · Campionato Primavera - 2

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Perugia U19	4	+11	12
6	Palermo U19	4	+3	8

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · perugia u19 winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

40% The market43%

Us40%

~~Market~~43%

We make Perugia U19 a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 43%. We are 3 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Palermo U19 v Perugia U19~~1.23 – 1.41

~~Form · Campionato Primavera - 2 this season · since 4 Sept~~W2 D2 L0 · W4 D0 L0

~~Table places · points 8 v 12~~6 v 2

~~The market · Perugia U19 win~~43% · ours 40%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Perugia U19 win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 43% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Palermo U19 win	32%	31%	+1
Draw	27%	26%	+1
Perugia U19 win	40%	43%	−3
Over 2.5 goals	49%	50%	−1
Both teams to score	53%	54%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	74%	73%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	27%	29%	−2
Palermo U19 or draw	60%	57%	+3
Palermo U19 clean sheet	25%	–	–
Perugia U19 clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 3 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.7%

0123450 8.0 9.5 7.1 3.4 1 8.3 12.7 8.5 4.0 2 5.5 7.5 5.2 2.5 3 2.3 3.1 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Palermo U19 down, Perugia U19 across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,354 Campionato Primavera - 2 matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Campionato Primavera - 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 68.8% of games this season, across 64 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2023/24 in every competition we cover, 2.17 goals a meeting; 3 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Palermo U19 at home: 2.33 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Perugia U19 away: 2.83 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.23 goals for Palermo U19, 1.41 for Perugia U19. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2023/24

~~Goals a meeting~~2.17

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 6

~~Both scored~~3 of 6

~~Last meetings~~PAL 0–1 PER · PER 2–1 PAL · PER 1–0 PAL · PAL 2–1 PER

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Campionato Primavera - 2 this season · since 4 Sept

PALERMO U19

WWDD3–1 · 3–2 · 2–2 · 0–0

PERUGIA U19

WWWW3–2 · 3–0 · 6–0 · 1–0

The table

2026/27 · group 2

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Catanzaro U19	4	+11	12
2	Perugia U19	4	+11	12
3	Benevento U19	4	+9	9
4	Avellino U19	4	+4	9
5	Bari U19	4	+5	8
6	Palermo U19	4	+3	8
7	Pescara U19	4	+3	7
8	Monopoli U19	4	+3	7
9	Spezia U19	4	0	4
10	Latina U19	4	−1	4
11	Napoli U19	4	−2	4
12	Pisa U19	4	−4	3
13	Ascoli U19	4	−4	2
14	Frosinone U19	4	−10	1
15	Cosenza U19	4	−12	0
16	Salernitana U19	4	−16	0