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Padova U19 v Sampdoria U19

Padova U19

0–4Full time

Sampdoria U19

Campionato Primavera - 2 · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 17:33

Padova U19 0–4 Sampdoria U19 SAMPDORIA U19 WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Sampdoria U19 win~~46%

~~The market said~~43%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.433

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.495

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay3 notes · 10 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Sampdoria U19 win at 46%.
1′Much as we predicted: Sampdoria U19 was 46% before kick-off and our model makes it 47% now. 0–0 · 30–23–47
1′KICK-OFF Padova U19 v Sampdoria U19
20′19′ and it is 0–1: Sampdoria U19 have scored. 0–1 · 11–18–71
20′⚽ GOAL · 19' Padova U19 0–1 Sampdoria U19
20′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 20' Sampdoria U19 win: 46% at kick-off, 71% now
23′⚽ GOAL · 23' Padova U19 0–2 Sampdoria U19
40′Sampdoria U19 find the net on 23′. 0–2. 0–2 · 2–7–92
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 40' Sampdoria U19 win: 46% at kick-off, 92% now
45′⚽ GOAL · 45' Padova U19 0–3 Sampdoria U19
45′HALF-TIME Padova U19 0–3 Sampdoria U19
46′SECOND HALF Padova U19 0–3 Sampdoria U19
77′⚽ GOAL · 76' Padova U19 0–4 Sampdoria U19
FTFULL TIME Padova U19 0–4 Sampdoria U19
FTPadova U19 0–4 Sampdoria U19 · Sampdoria U19 win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Padova U19 win30%

Draw24%

Sampdoria U19 win46%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 14:30

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · sampdoria u19 winPublished 10 Oct 14:40

46% The market43%

Us46%

~~Market~~43%

We make Sampdoria U19 a 46% chance to win. The market has them at 43%. We are 4 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.8.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · sampdoria u19 win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 43% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Padova U19 win	30%	32%	−2
Draw	24%	25%	−2
Sampdoria U19 win	46%	43%	+4
Over 2.5 goals	61%	58%	+3
Both teams to score	62%	61%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	83%	80%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	39%	37%	+2
Padova U19 or draw	54%	57%	−4
Padova U19 clean sheet	17%	–	–
Sampdoria U19 clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.7%

0123450 4.9 7.1 6.7 4.0 1 5.4 10.7 9.0 5.4 2.5 2 4.1 7.0 6.2 3.7 3 3.3 2.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Padova U19 down, Sampdoria U19 across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,338 Campionato Primavera - 2 matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Campionato Primavera - 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 79.2% of games this season, across 48 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 2.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Padova U19 at home: 1.50 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Sampdoria U19 away: 1.83 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.39 goals for Padova U19, 1.79 for Sampdoria U19. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~SAM 2–1 PAD · PAD 0–2 SAM

Form · last six in Campionato Primavera - 2

PADOVA U19

WDWWWL3–1 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 4–0 · 1–0 · 1–4

SAMPDORIA U19

LWWDWD0–1 · 4–1 · 3–1 · 0–0 · 3–1 · 4–4

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Perugia U19	3	+10	9
2	Catanzaro U19	3	+9	9
3	Avellino U19	3	+5	9
4	Bari U19	3	+5	7
5	Renate U19	3	+5	7
6	Vicenza U19	3	+5	7
7	Palermo U19	3	+3	7
8	Benevento U19	3	+6	6
9	Cremonese U19	3	+3	6
10	Virtus Entella U19	3	+3	6
11	Padova U19	3	+2	6
12	Mantova U19	3	+3	5
13	Sampdoria U19	3	+2	5
14	Modena U19	3	+2	4
15	Spezia U19	3	+2	4
16	Venezia U19	3	+1	4
17	Monopoli U19	3	+1	4
18	Brescia U19	3	0	4
19	Pescara U19	3	0	4
20	Latina U19	3	−1	3
21	Cittadella U19	3	−2	3
22	Pisa U19	3	−3	3
23	Udinese U19	3	−5	3
24	Ascoli U19	3	−1	2
25	Sudtirol U19	3	−3	2
26	Napoli U19	3	−3	1
27	Reggiana U19	3	−3	1
28	Pro Vercelli U19	3	−6	1
29	Lecco U19	3	−7	1
30	Frosinone U19	3	−10	0
31	Cosenza U19	3	−10	0
32	Salernitana U19	3	−13	0