Napoli U19 v Spezia U19 prediction · Campionato Primavera

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 12:08

Napoli U19 3–1 Spezia U19 NAPOLI U19 WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Napoli U19 win~~53%

~~The market said~~53%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.334

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.328

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 10 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Napoli U19 win at 53%.
1′Much as we predicted: Napoli U19 was 53% before kick-off and our model makes it 53% now. 0–0 · 53–24–24
1′KICK-OFF Napoli U19 v Spezia U19
18′Napoli U19 find the net on 18′. 1–0. 1–0 · 76–15–9
18′We published Napoli U19 at 53%. Our model now makes it 76%. 1–0 · 76–15–9
18′⚽ GOAL · 18' Napoli U19 1–0 Spezia U19
18′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 18' Napoli U19 win: 53% at kick-off, 76% now
31′Goals are coming at about the 3.1 we expected. 1–0 · 77–16–7
34′A goal for Napoli U19 on 34′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 93–5–2
34′⚽ GOAL · 34' Napoli U19 2–0 Spezia U19
34′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 34' Napoli U19 win: 53% at kick-off, 93% now
35′We published Napoli U19 at 53%. Our model now makes it 93%. 2–0 · 93–5–2
45′HALF-TIME Napoli U19 2–0 Spezia U19
46′SECOND HALF Napoli U19 2–0 Spezia U19
47′We published Napoli U19 at 53%. Our model now makes it 95%. 2–0 · 95–4–1
71′Napoli U19 score on 70′ to make it 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
71′We published Napoli U19 at 53%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
71′⚽ GOAL · 70' Napoli U19 3–0 Spezia U19
73′Spezia U19 find the net on 72′. 3–1. 3–1 · 98–1–0
73′4 goals already, more than the 3.1 we expected for the whole match. 3–1 · 98–1–0
73′⚽ GOAL · 72' Napoli U19 3–1 Spezia U19
FTFULL TIME Napoli U19 3–1 Spezia U19
FTNapoli U19 3–1 Spezia U19 · Napoli U19 win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Napoli U19 are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Napoli U19 53%, draw 23%, Spezia U19 24%. Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 59%.

The AI’s read on Napoli U19 v Spezia U19Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Napoli U19 win53%

Draw23%

Spezia U19 win24%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 09:30

RoundMatchday 6

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Napoli U19

Spezia U19

4Days since last match7

Last match: 20 Oct · UEFA Youth League

Last match: 17 Oct · Campionato Primavera - 2

4Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	Napoli U19	5	−2	5
12	Spezia U19	5	−4	4

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · napoli u19 winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

53% The market53%

Us53%

~~Market~~53%

We make Napoli U19 a 53% chance to win. The market has them at 53%. We are level with the market. The model expects 1.9–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Napoli U19 v Spezia U19~~1.89 – 1.19

~~Form · Campionato Primavera - 2 this season · since 5 Sept~~W1 D2 L2 · W1 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 5 v 4~~11 v 12

~~The market · Napoli U19 win~~53% · ours 53%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Napoli U19 win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 53% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Napoli U19 win	53%	53%	0
Draw	23%	24%	−1
Spezia U19 win	24%	23%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	59%	58%	+1
Both teams to score	59%	58%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	81%	79%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	37%	36%	+1
Napoli U19 or draw	76%	77%	−1
Napoli U19 clean sheet	31%	–	–
Spezia U19 clean sheet	16%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.7%

0123450 5.4 5.1 3.4 1 8.3 10.7 6.1 2.5 2 8.1 9.4 5.6 2.3 3 5.1 5.9 3.5 4 2.5 2.9 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Napoli U19 down, Spezia U19 across0–5 goals a side shown (98.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,370 Campionato Primavera - 2 matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Campionato Primavera - 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 70.0% of games this season, across 80 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.25 goals a meeting; 1 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Napoli U19 at home: 1.50 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Spezia U19 away: 1.00 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.89 goals for Napoli U19, 1.19 for Spezia U19. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.25

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 4

~~Both scored~~2 of 4

~~Last meetings~~NAP 2–0 SPE · SPE 2–1 NAP · NAP 2–0 SPE · SPE 1–1 NAP

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Campionato Primavera - 2 this season · since 5 Sept

NAPOLI U19

LLDWD1–3 · 2–3 · 2–2 · 1–0 · 1–1

SPEZIA U19

DLWLL1–1 · 2–3 · 3–0 · 0–2 · 1–5

The table

2026/27 · Primavera 2 U19 · group 2

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Catanzaro U19	5	+12	15
2	Perugia U19	5	+10	12
3	Palermo U19	5	+4	11
4	Benevento U19	5	+9	10
5	Bari U19	5	+5	9
6	Avellino U19	5	+3	9
7	Pescara U19	5	+3	8
8	Monopoli U19	5	+3	8
9	Latina U19	5	+3	7
10	Pisa U19	5	−1	6
11	Napoli U19	5	−2	5
12	Spezia U19	5	−4	4
13	Frosinone U19	5	−9	4
14	Ascoli U19	5	−7	2
15	Salernitana U19	5	−16	1
16	Cosenza U19	5	−13	0